Why the Phrase 'Super El Niño' Makes Australian Climate Scientists Roll Their Eyes

Arthur T Knackerbracket writes:

https://phys.org/news/2026-04-phrase-super-el-nio-australian.html

Frightening headlines predicting a Super El Nino or even a Godzilla El Nino amp up anxiety levels for farmers and residents of bushfire-prone regions.

But these phrases are not particularly accurate. The phrase "Super El Nino" makes climate scientists like me roll our eyes.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is a natural and reoccurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean which can influence the chance of different weather affecting Australia.

When sea surface temperatures near the Americas are warmer than usual and the trade winds blowing from east to west across the equator weaken, climatologists call this pattern an El Nino.

El Nino events typically ramp up in winter and spring, and decay towards the end of summer and start of autumn.

During El Nino, we tend to experience warmer than usual temperatures and reduced winter-spring rainfall in Australia's east.

We pay attention to El Nino and its opposite, La Nina, because this climate pattern has the biggest influence on year-to-year rainfall and temperature differences in eastern Australia. Drought is a key concern for farmers and rural residents, and some of the largest droughts of the past 40 years took place during El Nino years.

But problems can arise if we expect El Nino to be the only factor dictating our weather.

[...] A "Super El Nino" is when the region's ocean temperatures rise 2C, roughly two standard deviations above normal (about a 2.5% chance of happening). While scientists first coined the term, the evocative phrase has become a favorite of media commentators.

But Australian forecasters don't use these terms, as it doesn't matter that much for our weather if the index goes over 2C. What matters much more is whether an El Nino is present or not.

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