More than half of all Polymarket "long shot" bets on military action pay off
by Stephanie Stacey, Chris Cook, and Jill R Shah, Fin from Ars Technica - All content on (#75AD2)
More than half of long-shot" bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognized to the security of sensitive information.
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets-defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less-on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.