Only the Middle East crisis is preventing a drop in UK interest rates

Bank's wariness about inflationary pressures from the conflict lie behind decision to hold steady at 3.75%

• Business live - latest updates

There is a threat of high inflation coming to the UK but only from the conflict in the Middle East, which could keep oil prices high for much longer than was expected when Donald Trump first began attacking Iran.

It is the war that makes the difference between a benign outlook for inflation and one that puts it back on a rising trajectory, senior UK central bankers believe.