Comment 9JWW Re: In SciFi predictions

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Driverless cars may reduce U.S. auto sales 40% by 2040

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In SciFi predictions (Score: 1)

by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2015-05-21 15:10 (#9FS4)

The article forgot to mention that AI may make all knowledge workers redundant!!!

So if some technology that is 'on the cusp' comes to fruition and people adapt it widely and their purchasing patterns change drastically then the 'big 3' - that used to be the 'big 5', but which have been failing to meet consumer desires - may need to adapt.

I'm waiting with baited breath.

Re: In SciFi predictions (Score: 1)

by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2015-05-22 05:02 (#9H1B)

The article forgot to mention that AI may make all knowledge workers redundant!!!
Sweeping predictions of AI taking over the world have been falling-short for the past half century. I'd say we've got a few hundred more years before we need to worry about it.

As long as there is ONE JOB out there, which humans can do just slightly better than machines, the economy won't collapse. Sure, you won't earn much money for, say, sorting rocks by shape and texture, but you'll live quite comfortably since extreme automation drove prices of everything very nearly to zero at the same time.

Re: In SciFi predictions (Score: 1)

by billshooterofbul@pipedot.org on 2015-05-22 18:56 (#9JJR)

Not sure. I always Imagined that as automation goes up, the wealth gap also goes up. As those with capitol spend it in such a way that it does not benefit laborers. Rich Guy A buys ipad from Rich Guy B. Ipad completely automated, zero humans involved in the design or manufacturer of said Ipad. Rich Guy B just owns the robots that did everything.

Of course that's just a gut reaction. I'd have to do some modeling to see how that would work in practice. But historically there was a dynamic between labor and capital that lead to the betterment of all. With devalued labor, I'm not so sure that still holds. We may return to a middle ages style of serfdom or worse.

Re: In SciFi predictions (Score: 3, Insightful)

by evilviper@pipedot.org on 2015-05-22 21:56 (#9JWW)

I always Imagined that as automation goes up, the wealth gap also goes up. As those with capitol spend it in such a way that it does not benefit laborers.
Go back several hundred years, and you don't see a nice even distribution of wealth, despite the lack of automation. Instead, the wealth gap is caused by laws (like taxes) that are too-favorable for the wealthy, disadvantaging the middle-class... Property, stocks, and other assets appreciate faster than wages, while being subject to much-lower tax rates. As long as that holds, the wealth gap can only continue increasing, and it will do so regardless of the progress of automation.

It's automation that has made goods so incredibly affordable, today, that people can afford huge volumes of stuff. Go back before the industrial revolution, and you'll see homes that are nearly barren of commercially-produced goods... Remember when people had 90-hour work-weeks, and still couldn't afford to pay rent and food? Compare to today's 40-hour work-weeks, with everyone spending less than 15% of their income on all the food they can eat. When was the last famine in the western world?
But historically there was a dynamic between labor and capital that lead to the betterment of all.
That dynamic only existed for a very brief period, and it wasn't ever the case that paying for more, less-productive labor, benefited anyone. Instead, it was the growing efficiency of labor (assisted by automation) that made it possible for those jobs to become high-paying. And the US was on top because automation allowed high-paid union workers to make products that were exported to 3rd world countries, cheaper than being built locally by poorly-paid 3rd world laborers without the automation.
Rich Guy A buys ipad from Rich Guy B. Ipad completely automated, zero humans involved in the design or manufacturer of said Ipad. Rich Guy B just owns the robots that did everything.
1) This ipad can be manufacturered for $1 more than the cost of materials. If Rich Guy A tries to sell it for more than that, Rich Guy C will be able to start making ipads cheaper and will sell them to Rich Guy B.

2) As long as there are ANY jobs left for humans, even modest wages will allow those workers to afford a large amount of said ipads, thanks to automation driving the prices towards zero. And the cost of materials will continue to fall as well, as the automation allows for cheaper solar power, and more efficient mineral extraction and more.

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Time Reason Points Voter
2015-05-25 23:02 Insightful +1 hyper@pipedot.org
2015-05-24 00:16 Insightful +1 venkman@pipedot.org

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