Wage growth and migration could hold the key to UK interest rates

Official view seems to be rates will rise early next year as recovery takes hold, but a rise in working-age population could keep a lid on salaries

Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty excludes two essential trends from his analysis of the economy. In a speech this week, he said a bounce back from a lacklustre first three months of the year was on the cards. With the recovery will come a steady rise in wages that will last the rest of this year and into the next, resulting in the first of several interest rate rises next spring.

It's not an outlandish statement. An interest rate rise in the first quarter of 2016 is what the market expects, too.