Greek referendum: how would top economists vote?

The Greek government is urging a no vote in Sunday's bailout referendum. Eurozone leaders say vote yes

Greeks go to the polls on Sunday to vote on whether to accept the bailout programme proposed by international lenders that would restart financial aid in exchange for further austerity and economic reform.

The government is urging people to vote no, with the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, saying it is time to end years of rolling over Greece's bailouts and "pretending" its debts can be repaid.

A no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present.

The troika clearly did a reverse Corleone - they made Tsipras an offer he can't accept, and presumably did this knowingly. So the ultimatum was, in effect, a move to replace the Greek government. And even if you don't like Syriza, that has to be disturbing for anyone who believes in European ideals.

It's a complicated choice. The question being asked is whether the plan from the creditors is good or not. If that is the question being asked, the answer for me is clear: it is a bad plan.

I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding "No" to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend.

The way forward is to reform from within, not by running away from the problem. There are already signs that sentiments are changing ... With patience other changes will follow. It is clear to most politicians in Europe that austerity is dividing the continent and damaging the European project. Reforms will follow. Greece has a role to play in this agenda but only if it stays within the eurozone.

There has been too much austerity but a no vote would make things worse. It would almost certainly mean banks becoming insolvent, an exit from the euro and a much faster decline in economic activity, with hyperinflation following as the drachma that is introduced instantly devalues.

A yes vote would keep banks open and give mandate for a deal to be struck that recognises the new Greek realities and includes, as the IMF now says, restructuring of the debt which every economist knows is unsustainable.

Taking into account that the proposals of our creditors and the Greek government were converging until last Friday, we believe that what is really at stake in the coming referendum, irrespective of the precise formulation of the question, is whether Greece will remain, or not, in the eurozone and, possibly, whether it will remain in the EU itself...

Leaving the eurozone, especially in this chaotic and superficial way, would likely lead to a process of leaving the EU too, with unpredictable and disastrous consequences for the national security and the democratic stability of our country.