Budget 2015 live: George Osborne announces 'living wage' of £9 an hour
- Chancellor announces 17bn tax and spending savings
- Student maintenance grants to be abolished
- 'Non-dom' tax status partially curbed
- Corporation tax cut to 19% in 2017
4.59pm BST
The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the national living wage policy will take Britain from middle of the OECD league table, in terms of the value of its minimum wage as a percentage of full-time median earnings (red line in the middle - UK now), to near the top (red line about three quarters of the way up).
This chart is from Robert Chote, the head of the OBR's, presentation.
4.52pm BST
Here's our reality check on the national living wage:
Related: Has George Osborne really introduced a living wage?
4.42pm BST
The Institute for Fiscal Studies will give its full verdict on the budget at a briefing tomorrow, but Paul Johnson, the IFS director, was on the BBC earlier. Here are some of the key points he made.
There are clearly some losers here, some fairly high income people with dividends, for example, are going to be hit by the increase in dividend taxation. Also, if they are higher rate taxpayers who are buy-to-letters, then they're going to be losing from that as well. The other big losers are those who are receiving some parts of the tax credit system.
A lot of this will actually affect universal credit, which isn't yet in place. The big change that this will have is it will reduce significantly the amount that you can earn before you start losing the benefit. Actually, it begins to undermine a little bit the really important aspect of the way that universal credit was put together, which was it was deliberately designed to allow you to earn a reasonably significant amount of money before you started losing your benefits. The amount you are going to be able to earn before you lose your benefits is going to go down.
[Osborne] is legislating higher wages and he will bring quite a lot of people in to this new national living wage, a lot more people will be directly affected by it than are affected by the national minimum wage. I think we are entering slightly unknown territory actually in terms of having a minimum wage. He says the OBR has estimated that it will have a relatively small effect on the number of jobs; actually I think there is some considerable uncertainty about that.
4.14pm BST
Fraser Nelson at the Spectator says there were six ideas in the budget stolen from Labour.
4.08pm BST
Here's the view of our economics editor Larry Elliott:
It is one of the iron rules of British politics that chancellors take tough decisions in the budget that immediately follow a general election - and George Osborne did not break with tradition.
The meat of the first all-Conservative package in almost two decades was a series of measures designed to turn a deficit of 70bn this year into a surplus by the end of the parliament. There will be tax increases that will raise a total of 47bn by 2020 and welfare cuts that will raise 35bn.
Related: Budget 2015: George Osborne tries to get tough, with less pain
4.07pm BST
The Living Wage Foundation has given a qualified welcome to George Osborne's national living wage announcement. But it says that the cuts to tax credits could mean the living wage needs to be even higher.
It is worth clarifying that Osborne's national living wage is not the same as the foundation's living wage. They may have the same name (Osborne pinched the title), but Osborne's is just a new tier of the minimum wage, ultimately pegged to median earnings. The foundation's is pegged instead to prices, and is set at a level intended to cover the basic cost of living.
4.00pm BST
Here is the Evening Standard splash.
Treasury will be pleased with this #budget2015 pic.twitter.com/mjyHwkyOPw
3.59pm BST
Here is the verdict on the budget from the Comment is free panel: Tom Clark, Polly Toynbee,Matthew d'Ancona, Gaby Hinsliff, and Aditya Chakrabortty
This is from Polly's piece.
Keep your eyes on their prize - the deep and permanent shrinking of the state. Ignore the confetti of distractions - look where we are headed. The "low tax, low welfare" UK state will be smaller even than the US as a proportion of GDP by 2019 - far from the European social democratic norm.
Before these cuts, the IMF and OECD projected the UK state would fall to 36.6%, very close to the US at 35%. Germany is at 45.4%. Today's 12bn welfare cuts add another 1.6%, so UK spending will fall below America's.
3.58pm BST
Reaction to the budget confirmation that the National Health Service will receive an extra 8bn by 2020.
Rob Webster, chief executive of the NHS Confederation which represents 85 per cent of NHS providers and commissioners, welcomed the news and said:
As highlighted in today's budget document, the 8bn needs to come in staged increases and we would emphasise this should reflect the bigger cost pressures expected in the first half of this Parliament. There is an opportunity for a multi-year funding deal to be aligned with planning in the NHS, for example around pricing, contracting and allocations. Through NHS Employers, we will look at the impact of the budget on our workforce.
The additional funding will also need to account for investment in transformation, to support double-running and other costs that will be needed to move to new models of care. What cannot be forgotten though is the impact that social care cuts are having on the NHS. We need urgent action to look at how we address the gap in social care funding, currently estimated at 4 billion by 2020.
Patients and employers want to see improved and better seven-day services, and what we urgently need to consider is the workforce and pay and contract reform required to support this, especially for medical staff.
In continuing with the work to reform terms and conditions of service in and across the NHS, we now look forward to the publication of reports and the observations from the pay review bodies. Following publication we will be urgently seeking to speak with our trade unions, to ensure we continue to work in partnership to progress pay reforms and service improvement across the NHS.
3.55pm BST
Here is Frank Field, the Labour chair of the Commons work and pensions committee, on the budget.
The living wage initiative could be a game changing move. What's crucial now is to ensure that the level at which it's set by the end of the parliament is matched by productivity increases so it is sustainable. The immediate issue, however, is how many strivers will be made worse off by the other announcements the chancellor has made and what moves should we initiate to ensure that our constituents' wish that work will pay is fulfilled.
3.52pm BST
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility report (pdf), the decision to impose a 1% a year cut in social housing rents will lead to less affordable housing being built. (Bold print inserted by me.)
The government's decision to impose 1 per cent annual rent reductions in the social rented sector for four years from April 2016 will directly reduce social landlords' rental income, and therefore their financing for, and returns to, investing in new housebuilding. To reflect this we have reduced our forecast for residential investment, proportionate to the expected reduction in rental income. This reduces private residential investment by around 0.7 per cent by the end of the forecast period. Around 37,000 'affordable homes' were built by Housing Associations in England in 2013-14. The adjustment would be broadly consistent with reducing housebuilding by housing associations by around 4,000 in 2019-20, when the full effect of the policy on their rental income has been reached. Over the forecast period, our assumptions suggest around 14,000 fewer 'affordable homes' will be built.
3.51pm BST
One for the law of unintended consequences?
By cutting UK corporation tax to 18%, the chancellor might have encouraged another round of tax-inversion bids, where multi-national companies (in reality US corporations) attempt to take over UK registered businesses and relocate their head offices to gain the benefit of lower tax rates. Pfizer made one such attempt when it bid for AstraZeneca before being rebuffed. But Neil Shah at Edison Investment Research, said:
The Chancellor has raised the for sale sign over UK plc by reducing UK corporation tax to 18%, a full 2% below even the lowest of any advanced economy and crucially the lowest rate in Europe. Expect tax inversion-style led approaches for UK listed multinationals to come once again from the US with the dollar strengthening both against a troubled euro and boosted by the possibility of US interest rate hikes.
3.50pm BST
And here's more from Katie Allen at the OBR briefing:
OBR says govt on course to meet existing and planned fiscal rules pic.twitter.com/l9BY8yTi34
OBR head Chote concludes #SummerBudget represents a "big fiscal package", less reliant on public services cuts pic.twitter.com/hftYYvExCC
3.47pm BST
On page 185 of its report (pdf), the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes a table giving an "uncertainty" rating to all George Osborne's spending/saving decision. It measures how likely they are to save/cost as much as the Treasury thinks.
Measures that will save money through penalising the low-paid, such as freezing benefits, have a "low" uncertainty rating (meaning that there is little doubt that the money will come).
3.33pm BST
This is from Alison Garnham, chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, on the budget.
The welcome move on a higher minimum wage cannot disguise the truth that this is a budget that damages the economic security of working families, and takes us further down the road to being a two-nation economy, with higher child poverty for millions and lower taxes for the better off.
We have long called for a genuine living wage, but no single wage level can take account of family size, so families which appear to gain under this proposal may end up worse off overall if cuts to child benefit, child tax credits and working tax credits go ahead. It's vital that any savings the government makes through higher wages are re-invested to help families with children.
3.32pm BST
Our colleague Katie Allen is at the Office for Budget Responsibility briefing:
#SummerBudget OBR head starting briefing on fiscal and economic forecasts pic.twitter.com/F9Iji7xPCD
OBR Chote slides on impact of Osborne's national living wage plan pic.twitter.com/FcyUHgrCmF
OBR fcasts not adjusted for Greece effect but Chote says: if confidence across eurozone is hit by events there "UK would be affected"
3.29pm BST
The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the changes to the inheritance tax (which give older people less incentive to sell) could lead to more over-crowding for the young. This is from page 42 of the OBR's report (pdf).
Changes to the inheritance tax regime could make it more likely that the co-existence of under-occupation among older owners and over-crowding among younger renters will become even more prevalent. It is not clear to what extent that might affect regional labour mobility or other issues relevant to our macroeconomic forecast, so we have not made any adjustments on account of this.
3.22pm BST
The Scottish secretary David Mundell has welcomed the budget as good for Scotland, telling the BBC that the Barnett consequentials would be minimal, probably with a surplus of around 7m.
So it's an economically neutral budget for Scotland but not politically - as George Osborne indicated in his speech when he told the SNP that, with new power for tax raising and on welfare: "You've got the powers, now what are you going to do with them?"
3.14pm BST
According to Labour, a single parent working 16 hours a week with two children will gain just over 400 from George Osborne's national living wage. But she would lose 860 from changes to tax credits in 2016-17.
3.13pm BST
Labour is pointing out more bits of bad news buried in the budget small print.
3.10pm BST
Interest rates are still forecast to rise in the first half of next year, but might rise slightly more quickly than expected in March, said the Office for Budget Responsibility:
Since our March forecast, medium-term interest rate expectations have risen slightly but the first increase in Bank Rate is still expected in the second quarter of 2016.
3.05pm BST
For the geeks out there, here are the full costings for all the Budget measures pic.twitter.com/yV27bCoPVq
3.03pm BST
This is what Chris Leslie, the shadow chancellor, had to say about the budget on BBC News just now.
When you actually look at this more in the totality, in the round this really been a budget to hit those in work, particularly those on low pay. [George Osborne's] doing his usual political trick, lots of headlines - he's a headline chancellor - but when you take away the spin, actually he's taking billions and billions away from the tax credits that people need in work. A work penalty has been introduced into the tax credit system, and he's done it in a number of different way.
First of all, he's halved the level at which people can be awarded the full amount of tax credit, going from 6,000 to 3,000. So effectively, for those people on tax credits, it's a bit like halving the personal allowance for them. And then he's taking it away at a much faster rate. And there's no way that the increases in the minimum wage, much as though we welcome some of those, can keep pace with the hit that is going hurt those on the lowest pay. So, for all the slogans about helping working people, he is definitely not doing that.
3.00pm BST
As flagged earlier, protesters gathered at Downing Street to show their displeasure with the government's planned welfare cuts:
2.51pm BST
Renewable electricity will no longer be exempt from the climate change levy. The budget documents say:
This change will correct an imbalance in the tax system by preventing taxpayers' money benefitting renewable electricity generated overseas, and by helping ensure support for low carbon generation provides better value for money for UK taxpayers.
As many other states are powering ahead with renewable energy, we have a government that's making it even harder to establish and develop renewable energy projects, while ignoring the economic, social and environmental benefits of investing in providing warm, comfortable, affordable-to-heat homes for all.
Osborne takes the axe to exemption for users of renewable electricity from the Climate Change Levy. Another blue attack on green policies.
2.50pm BST
The most important table in the budget red book (pdf) is table 2.1, which sets out how much money the chancellor is saving and spending from his various budget measures.
Overall, this is a tax raising budget. It raises almost 1bn net in tax this year (2015-16), and the overall tightening this year (tax rises plus spending cuts) is worth 3.5bn. By 2020-21 the overall tightening is almost 19bn.
2.31pm BST
Loosing the squeeze on public services spending funded by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher government borrowing - that is the budget verdict of the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Day to day government spending would be 83.3bn higher over the current parliament than the coalition suggested in March. Tax cuts - mainly a decrease in corporation tax, a rise in income tax personal allowances and extending inheritance tax relief for main residences - would cost 24.6bn.
The Government would have to identify further real cuts in public services spending rising to a peak of 17.9 billion in 2019-20, rather than 41.9 billion in 2018-19. Thereafter spending is assumed to rise again in real terms. Public services spending would fall by an average of 1.5 per cent a year in real terms over this Parliament as a whole, slightly less than the 1.6 per cent a year cuts over the last.
2.21pm BST
Here's Iain Duncan Smith's reaction to the national living wage:
2.20pm BST
The introduction of the national living wage could increase the chances of interest rates going up, Sky points out.
Colleague @iankingsky makes the v good point that if the @bankofengland gets wind of this mass wage rise issue, likely to hasten rate rises
2.19pm BST
Here's a copy of Harriet Harman's response to the budget.
2.17pm BST
Snap economic verdict:
As expected George Osborne unveiled a lower than expected growth forecast for this year, down from the 2.5% expected in March to 2.4%. That follows slower than expected growth in the first quarter, and the subsequent problems with the global economy which has seen slowdowns in the US and China. And of course the eurozone crisis and the prospect of Greece leaving the single currency has also had an impact.
2.16pm BST
Here is more about how the new national living wage (NLW) will work.
2.01pm BST
You can read find all the budget documents here.
1.51pm BST
Markets and the pound both moved higher during the course of Osborne's speech but fell back to end unchanged by the time he had finished.
The FTSE 100 is up around 1%, with investors buoyed by the growth forecasts and the cut in corporation tax.
1.51pm BST
Snap political verdict: This was a budget that lived up to expectations. The squeeze on tax credits was as brutal as everyone expected, but the living wage announcement was a genuine spectacular, that should see some low-earners see their pay go up from 6.50 an hour now to 7.20 an hour next year. Without seeing the detail it is not possible to make a definitive judgment, but it looks as though this policy trumps what Labour was offering on low pay at the election (a rise in the national minimum wage to 8 an hour by 2019), and it will do much to bolster the Conservatives' "blue collar" credentials. If the Tories really can fully embrace blue collar Conservatism (and, even after today, they still have some way to go), Labour will be in even deeper trouble than they realise.
1.46pm BST
Here's the summary from the Office for Budget Responsibility:
The new Government has used its first Budget to loosen significantly the impending squeeze on public services, financed by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher borrowing. The Government has also delayed the expected return to a budget surplus by a year to 2019-20, but is then aiming for a slightly bigger surplus in the medium term
1.40pm BST
Osborne is winding up now.
He says the Conservatives are introducing a national living wage. This shows the Conservatives are the party for working people. It is a one nation policy, from a one nation government, he says.
1.39pm BST
Big cheers for the national living wage from Conservatives, in contrast to earlier disruption from opposition when Osborne announced benefit cuts.
1.38pm BST
Osborne turns to pay.
It cannot be right that firms are subsidised to pay low wages.
1.34pm BST
Osborne turns to defence.
1.33pm BST
Osborne says income tax.
1.31pm BST
Osborne says by 2010 tax credits were available to nine out of 10 people. Under these changes, they will only be available to five out of 10 people.
1.29pm BST
Osborne says the benefits system should not support lifestyles not available to taxpayers not on benefits.
The government introduced a benefits cap at 26,000. Labour opposed it, but it encouraged people to find work, he says.
1.26pm BST
Osborne says we spend more on family benefits than we do in Germany, France or Sweden.
As Frank Field says, this is simply not sustainable.
1.22pm BST
Osborne turns to welfare.
The welfare system should support the elderly, the vulnerable and the disabled.
1.20pm BST
Meanwhile housebuilding and property shares have been hit by the various measures unveiled.
The move to tighten non-dom tax rules with permanent non-dom status to be abolished has hit companies with a focus in London , including Berkeley Group and estate agency Foxtons.
Some reaction: The London property market and economy will be hit by the move on non-doms, according estate agents Jackson-Stops & Staff.
1.18pm BST
Osborne says there will be further cuts to corporation tax.
1.17pm BST
Osborne says corporation cut has already been cut to 20%.
He says he cannot bring it lower, while there are incentives to people to self-incorporate.
1.13pm BST
Osborne says the annual investment allowance will go up to 200,000 a year. This will help small and medium-sized firms, he says.
1.13pm BST
Osborne turns to housing. Further planning reforms will be announced on Friday.
He says buy-to-let landlords have an advantage, because they can offset mortgage payments against income. That has encouraged the growth of buy-to-let mortgages. Osborne says he wants to level the playing field.
1.08pm BST
Osborne says he has agreed with the 10 councils of Manchester to extend the Northern Powerhouse.
1.05pm BST
Osborne turns to tuition fees.
People said these would discourage students from poor homes. But applications from people from these backgrounds went up, he says.
1.04pm BST
Osborne promises to unveil a plan to improve UK productivity on Friday:
Productivity - will require quite a plan. #SummerBudget pic.twitter.com/W4uZShUIE4
1.02pm BST
Osborne says the skills of the young are no higher than the skills of the old.
Many firms do an excellent job with training, but some do not.
1.01pm BST
Osborne turns to cars.
By 2017, three quarters of new cars will pay no vehicle excise duty (VED) because they are fuel efficient. This penalises those who cannot afford new cars. Only Labour could designed something so regressive.
12.58pm BST
The bank levy changes have lifted share prices in the sector, with the City welcoming the plan to phase out the charge.
12.58pm BST
Osborne says he will fund a memorial to victims of terrorism overseas.
There will be 50m for cadet units in schools, so that 500 schools get them.
12.56pm BST
Osborne turns to the banks.
12.54pm BST
Osborne says he will bring forward tax paid by big companies.
12.53pm BST
Osborne says he is will put more funds into tax evasion/avoidance work.
Serial users of tax avoidance schemes will be named and shamed.
12.52pm BST
Here's our first take on Osborne's statement:
George Osborne has boasted that Britain is growing faster than any other advanced economy, as he delivers what he promises will be a budget that "recognises the hard work and sacrifices of the British people".
The latest economic forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, published alongside the Budget, point to GDP growth of 2.4% this year, down slightly from 2.5% at their last forecast in March Next year, the OBR expects GDP growth of 2.3%, unchanged from March.
Related: Budget 2015: UK GDP growing faster than other rich nations, George Osborne says
12.49pm BST
Osborne says he will set out savings of 17bn today, with 12bn coming from welfare cuts and 5bn coming from tax evasion/avoidance measures.
Further savings will come from departmental budget cuts, to be set out in the autumn.
12.48pm BST
Listening to Osborne deliver #Budget2015 you'd never guess that UK deficit - at 4.8% of GDP - is SIX TIMES higher than that of Greece.
12.46pm BST
Osborne says the richest are now paying a greater share of tax than they used to..
And a greater share of state support is going to the most vulnerable, he says.
12.45pm BST
Osborne says the surplus is forecast to be 10bn in 2019-20, and 11.6bn in 2020-21.
He says Britain has turned the corner. It has left the age of irresponsibility behind
12.44pm BST
More on the GDP figures:
As expected, UK growth has been edged lower for 2015. In the March budget the Office for Budget Responsibility forecase GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015.
12.43pm BST
Osborne says decisions to save money will be taken with moderation, but determination.
Osborne says the deficit was 10.2% in 2010. It is 3.7% this year, and will fall to 2.2% in 2016-17, 1.2% in 2018-19, 0.3% in 2018-19.
12.40pm BST
Osborne says the budget deficit is less than half what it was in 2010.
How fast should he cut the deficit? At the same pace as in the last parliament, he says.
12.39pm BST
12.39pm BST
Osborne says the growth forecast for 2015 is revised down from 2.5% to 2.4%.
After that the economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2016, then 2.4% in 2017.
12.37pm BST
Osborne turns to OBR forecasts.
In the March budget it was thought the economy grew by 2.6% last year. Now we know it grew by 3%.
12.36pm BST
Osborne says the economy is growing faster than in any other major economy.
Some 2m more jobs have been created.
12.35pm BST
George Osborne is starting his statement now.
It is a budget that puts security first, he says. It recognises the hard work and sacrifice of the people over the last five years. It will put hard-working people first.
12.33pm BST
Labour's Justin Madders says, when he questioned the government, he found that they did not know where the Nothern Powerhouse is. Is it just in the prime minister's imagination?
Cameron says Labour ignored the north for years. Labour cannot stand the fact his government is doing something about the north.
12.27pm BST
This is from the Sun's Tom Newton Dunn.
Budget: Govt insiders suggest nobody will be talking about Osborne easing austerity in an hour's time. Expect significant brutality.
12.27pm BST
Cameron tells John Redwood that he "fears for the future" of Greece.
12.24pm BST
Cameron says people who say that the jobs being created under the government are low-paid and part-time are not looking at what is actually happening in places like the Midlands.
12.23pm BST
Here is some Twitter comment on David Cameron's exchanges with Harriet Harman.
From Sky's Adam Boulton
COMMENT DC did not have answers to HH's issues but blustered through. We are none the wiser on sport participation. Scorers untroubled.
By far the worst #PMQs exchange since Harman took over. Interminable.
Labour in a tricky spot on #EVEL. Harman protests about it, but says 'we agree there's a problem', so what is their solution? #PMQs
Cameron is really spinning 'facts' today. #pmqs Even his sports minister @tracey_crouch said: "We've seen a continued downward trend.."
The Olympics was a great sports event lasting a few weeks. If long term effects don't live up to the hype that's because hype was ott #pmqs
12.16pm BST
Snap PMQs verdict: A comfortable win for Cameron, even if he was deploying some statistical jiggery-pokery during the exchanges on sport. (Harman was asking a specific question about sports participation since 2012, but Cameron brushed her aside with a series of more general sports participation stats.) Harman's Magna Carta question did not get through Cameron's defences, and, although, on English votes for English laws (Evel), she had a point about Cameron not consulting the procedure committee, it is hard to score a hit at PMQs with a point about select committee consultation, and Cameron's general point about Labour's evasiveness on Evel was more telling.
12.12pm BST
Harman says participation has gone down since the Olympics. In the English manifesto the Tories promised, Cameron said he would consult the Commons precedure committee before introducing English votes for English laws. When did he do this?
Cameron says there have been consultations with the head of that committee. At least he published an English manifesto, unlike Labour, he says. There is a problem of fairness. He is trying to address this. It is a "very modest proposal". Will Labour oppose it?
12.08pm BST
Harman says if we are staying in the convention, we may as well keep the HRA. Has participation in sport gone up or down since the Olympics?
It has gone up, says Cameron. And there is more activity in primary schools.
12.05pm BST
Harriet Harman mentions the anniverary of 7/7 and says Cameron celebrated the Magna Carta recently. So why does he want to water down the Human Rights Act?
Cameron says Magna Carta shows there were human rights before the Human Rights Act. He wants a British bill of rights so more of these decisions are taken by British judges.
12.02pm BST
Julian Lewis, a Conservative, says the government should be spending 3% of GDP on defence, not just 25, the Nato target.
David Cameron says the government is investing in defence.
12.01pm BST
PMQs is about to start.
I will be covering David Cameron's exchanges with Harriet Harman, and budget-related answers.
11.58am BST
Here are some budget speech stats.
Some Budget speech stats: Osborne's shortest to date was in 2013 (54 min, 28 sec) and his longest was in March 2015 (58 min, 54 sec).
Osborne's longest in terms of word count was in 2010 (8,810) and his shortest was in 2013 (7,374).
11.56am BST
Downing Street has announced there there will be a free vote on changes to the anti-hunting legislation in the Commons next week.
Government have cheekily announced a free vote on fox-hunting an hour before the Budget, keeping it well away from the front pages
govt waters down manifesto free vote on hunting act repeal, opts for free vote next Thursday on amendment legalising Scottish-style system>
David Cameron likely to vote in favour of relaxing fox hunting ban next week, his spokesman has indicated. 'He believes in freedom to hunt'
Leak it to the Spectator late on a Tuesday night, then confirm it an hour before the Budget. You'd almost think the Tories are embarrassed.
11.55am BST
Here's the traditional scene of the chancellor showing off the red budget box before heading to the commons.
11.47am BST
Hannah Jane Parkinson has done the budget in 20 questions.
11.43am BST
The Lib Dems are complaining that George Osborne has blocked them on Twitter.
Honestly George, let it go. #budget2015 pic.twitter.com/Cg4UjxJmHx
11.35am BST
This is from the Daily Mirror's Jason Beattie.
Cabinet "banged table" after Budget presentation this morning. Presumably with fists rather than heads #budget2015
11.34am BST
This is what David Cameron's spokeswoman said about the budget.
This is a Budget that will put our country firmly on the path from a high tax, high welfare society to a lower tax, lower welfare society. It will provide a strong and solid foundation to secure a better future for people across the UK in the years ahead.
11.29am BST
Harriet Harman, the acting Labour leader, will respond to the budget in the Commons, but the real interest will be in what the four leadership candidates have to say about George Osborne's plans.
Here are tweets from the four candidates setting out some pre-budget points.
Tax credits, student grants, Sunday trading ... looks like #budget2015 will be long list of things people weren't told about before Election
.@YvetteCooperMP on George Osborne's first Tory budget in @HuffPostUK: http://t.co/WPmba5DapM pic.twitter.com/xoyIpo4nW0
If the Tories won't tackle low pay in today's #budget2015, I will. http://t.co/7M6H73ZcNz pic.twitter.com/dDOGjHYHE8
"Does Labour stand up to the Tories' miserable and divisive austerity policies," #jeremy4leader pic.twitter.com/RD5tk9jMlU
11.28am BST
The last Conservative-only budget was delivered by Ken Clarke in November 1996, and the Press Association has helpfully reminded us what else was happening at the time:
11.24am BST
Campaigners are protesting outside Number 10 about the planned welfare cuts in the budget.
Protests at gates of Downing Street over benefit cuts #Budget2015 pic.twitter.com/KZsqZWc9IK
11.20am BST
George Osborne has left Number 11 for the Commons.
11.01am BST
One of the photographers outside Number 10 this morning is clearly hoping for a job at the Football Association. He shouted 'Morning girls' at Nicky Morgan and Amber Rudd as they left cabinet. Here's the ITV footage. They weren't impressed.
And here's the Guardian's video:
10.57am BST
Although we have had plenty of information about what will be in the budget already, George Osborne is expected to produce at least one "spectacular".
The Telegraph's James Kirkup suggests it could be merging income tax with national insurance.
Re speculation that the #summerbudget surprise is merger of income tax and NICs, John Redwood worth re-reading: http://t.co/FRYeTvcjgx
10.54am BST
Anti-austerity campaigners are planning protests across the UK to coincide with the budget, as well as a series of strikes across the capital.
Our report here:
Related: 'Oxi to Osborne': UK campaigners take Greek inspiration in budget protests
More security than normal on Whitehall for anticipated budget anti-welfare cuts protests: #SummerBudget pic.twitter.com/gmudS5B6HS
10.37am BST
If you are looking for a guide as to how George Osborne can achieve welfare cuts of 12bn, this chapter, from the Institute of Fiscal Studies' green budget earlier this year (pdf), is about as good as anything.
Here are the key charts, showing how much various measures would save. They start on page 225.
10.27am BST
George Osborne has been tweeting about the budget.
Today I will present a Conservative Budget - a Budget that puts economic security first pic.twitter.com/yQ8kD8nmo9
10.08am BST
You can read today's Guardian budget coverage here.
As for the rest of the papers, here are two comment articles worth reading.
One of the differences between households and governments that economists always talk about is that the latter has the power of taxation. They can't borrow "too much", say the economists. Such an idea is nonsensical, they say, because governments, unlike households, can raise money by using their legal power to demand it from people.
Yet this assumes that people will agree to let them use that power; it assumes that people will agree to pay the taxes. In America and in Greece, this idea has been tested and found wanting. Governments can much more easily gain consent to borrow money than they can gain consent to pay back the loans ...
Importantly here, Mr Osborne is proving to be a good thief, adept at pinching bright ideas from others. Labour people, missing the point, squeal that he nicked the Northern Powerhouse theme from them. That comes after he stole the Lib Dem tax policy of jacking up the starting threshold for income tax, and then decorated it with the language of Blue Collar Conservatism, again a concept he's appropriated from others. In his Budget today, it will be no surprise if he moves on the living wage and the working poor, a cause Boris Johnson has tried to make his own.
Yet for all the rebranding and restyling, for all the intellectual heavy-lifting and light fingers, Mr Osborne is a contender because of his record, both political and economic.
10.00am BST
9.53am BST
Ever wonder what the Lib Dems are up to? This is from Phil Reilly, a Lib Dem official in the last government.
1st budget day for 5 years I haven't spent trying in vain to get credit for Lib Dems for raising tax-free allowance. Might make a cup of tea
9.41am BST
Today Tom Newton Dunn in the Sun says that George Osborne will cut most benefits for young people under the age of 21 in today's budget. He also says that Osborne could cut tax credits for the under-25s. The story quotes a minister saying:
This will be one of the boldest budgets in a very long time, in more than a decade certainly. It will fundamentally recast the relationship between the state, the individual and the employer.
9.40am BST
Markets are edging higher ahead of the Budget statement, with the FTSE 100 up around 0.4%.
But traders have more on their minds than Osborne's speech, with an emergency summit on Greece called for Sunday, which could sign the country's exit from the eurozone. China is also a worry, with its markets continuing to fall and regulators warning of "panic" among investors.
9.27am BST
The cabinet meeting has broken up.
The Chancellor must have plenty to talk about: the pre-Budget Cabinet briefing has broken up after an hour and 20 minutes.
9.15am BST
Katie Allen explains the background to the budget in six graphs.
9.11am BST
An artist, Kaya Mar, has been posing outside Number 10 with this picture of George Osborne. It is probably not one that the chancellor will be hanging in his living room.
9.07am BST
Osborne and the Conservatives have benefitted from a recovery in the economy, with GDP growing for nine consecutive quarters.
But the chancellor may have to announce a slightly worse outlook for the year, given signs of weakness in the first quarter. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which produces independent forecasts for the government, forecast in March that growth this year would be 2.5%, but this may now be scaled back to 2.4% or even 2.3% as it takes into account the effects of any spending cuts.
If the OBR revises down the growth forecast for the next few years on the back of the spending cuts, or expresses doubt that the government can reach its deficit targets during this parliament, then we could see the pound struggle, particularly against the US dollar.
[But] if Osborne announces any measures to boost the manufacturing sector then it may limit the pound's downside, particularly after weak manufacturing production caused a sharp drop [against the dollar] on Tuesday.
9.04am BST
The Treasury has tweeted a picture of the budget document being printed.
The document's printed, the speech is prepped; only 14 hours until @George_Osborne presents his #SummerBudget https://t.co/QByVtiieop
8.56am BST
According to Andrew Grice in the Independent, George Osborne will announce that he is cutting maintenance grants for poorer students in the budget today. Here's an extract from his story.
Maintenance grants for university students from low-income families will be scrapped and converted into loans in the Government's next round of spending cuts ...
At present, students in England and Wales from families with annual household incomes of 25,000 or less qualify for maintenance grants of 3,387 a year.
8.47am BST
The cabinet normally meets on a Tuesday, but this week's meeting was postponed until today, so that George Osborne could brief his colleagues on the budget measures. Here is some video of ministers arriving at Number 10 this morning.
The Cabinet gathers to hear from George Osborne about his first all-Tory Budget: pic.twitter.com/0BQyawwe9P via @JoeChurcher
8.39am BST
The Tory MP Chris Philp has tweeted a picture of the scene in the members' lobby in the Commons earlier, where MPs were queuing up to reserve a seat for today's budget.
Waiting with other MPs to reserve seats in the Commons for today's budget pic.twitter.com/goWrdJYK5S
8.30am BST
Any politician - or, indeed, anyone remotely interested in the craft of politics - dreams about the laws they would pass if given a totally free hand. Of course, politicians never get a totally free hand; even a prime minister with a large majority is constrained by internal party politics, Whitehall inertia, the judiciary, and a host of other factors. But for George Osborne, the chancellor, today will probably be as close as he will ever get to that moment of maximum elbow room. This is his seventh budget, but his first without Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander vetoing some of his ideas. The Conservative majority is small, but Tory MPs are buoyed by their surprise election victory and Osborne will never have a better chance to get difficult measures through the Commons. As a result, we've been told that this will be a very big budget indeed - one that will define the government for the next five years.
A budget statement lasts about an hour, but these days budgets have become like Indian weddings or music festivals - a week-long news event, with the first stories coming out well in advance. As a result we have already had quite a lot of detail about what is coming. (Whether these stories are "leaks", or proper Treasury announcements, is sometimes a moot point - since the Lib Dems left government, the supply of proper budget leaks has somewhat dried up.) And new information emerged last night, as Patrick Wintour has reported in the Guardian's budget story. Here's how it starts.
George Osborne will use the first Conservative budget in 18 years to slash billions from in-work tax credits and housing benefit, although the chancellor is likely to slow the pace of an expected 12bn cuts to the welfare bill.
An initial cut of 8bn in welfare over two years was being predicted on Tuesday night, closer to the pace of welfare cuts agreed under the previous coalition government and intended to protect Osborne from criticism he is likely to face from Labour and charities.
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