Is US monetary policy Made in China?
One academic argues that China selling $60bn of Treasury bonds a month raises US yields by 10 basis points
For much of the year, investors have been fixated on when the Federal Reserve will achieve "liftoff" - that is, when it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25%, as a first step toward normalising monetary conditions. Markets have soared and plummeted in response to small changes in Fed statements perceived as affecting the likelihood that liftoff is imminent.
But, in seeking to gauge changes in US monetary conditions, investors have been looking in the wrong place. Since mid-August, when Chinese policymakers startled the markets by devaluing the renminbi by 2%, China's official intervention in foreign exchange markets has continued, in order to prevent the currency from falling further. The Chinese authorities have been selling foreign securities, mainly US Treasury bonds, and buying up renminbi.
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