Tax credit climbdown would threaten welfare cap, IFS warns

Institute for Fiscal Studies says watering down planned changes would make it impossible for George Osborne to keep welfare spending below 115bn

George Osborne is at risk of breaching his self-imposed ceiling on welfare spending if he makes concessions on plans to curb tax credits to hard-pressed families, Britain's leading thinktank on the public finances has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said unless the chancellor could find savings from elsewhere in the benefits bill, it looked likely that he would have to ask parliament to raise the welfare cap announced in the summer budget.