Why Britain won't vote to leave the EU

An exit from the European Union would mean huge economic costs for Britain and no political benefits whatsoever

Among the multiple existential challenges facing the European Union this year - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

This confident prediction may seem to be contradicted by polls showing roughly 50% support for "Brexit" in the June referendum. And British public opinion may move even further in the "Out" direction for a while longer, as euroskeptics ridicule the "new deal" for Britain agreed at the EU summit on 19 February.

Related: EU referendum: a timetable for the UK