Five key charts: what you need to know about budget 2016 and the UK economy

Growth, borrowing, spending cuts, the jobs market and Brexit - what to look out for in George Osborne's eighth budget

George Osborne's eighth budget is unlikely to be a radical affair, as the state of the public finances and the upcoming EU referendum limit the chancellor's room for manoeuvre. This all but rules out big or controversial policy announcements (he has already decided not to press ahead with pension tax relief reform). But with the economy growing more slowly than expected and borrowing remaining high, the chancellor has already signalled further spending cuts of 4bn.

We expect the Office for Budget Responsibility to cut its forecasts for growth by one or two 10ths. This, along with a poorer outturn for the current fiscal year, would push the deficit higher in the absence of further tightening measures.

Downward revisions to growth seem likely. Chancellor Osborne will blame financial market wobbles and China's slowdown, but the main problems are closer to home.

Earnings growth has never really taken off post-crisis - so the cost of recession on earnings remains over 100/week pic.twitter.com/AVyPjVEL72

Borrowing looks set to overshoot this fiscal year as a whole, and future years' borrowing forecasts will be hit by the recent bout of global uncertainty (count the number of times "cocktail of risks" is mentioned ...) and slowdown in the domestic economy. Offsetting this to some degree will be lower debt interest forecasts due to lower expectations for gilt yields and Bank Rate."

These cuts will be contentious as they will take more demand out of the economy at a time when the economic backdrop is already very challenging. Further cuts would also present logistical problems: November's comprehensive spending review put in place departmental budgets for the next four fiscal years, so these would need to be reopened."

In many respects, we see this budget as similar to a pre-election budget. Against the backdrop of evenly divided public and Conservative opinion over the EU referendum in June, we think that the chancellor and prime minister would likely prefer a 'feelgood' budget, and would probably choose to avoid any controversial decisions."

Economically, the emergency budget of 2010 was the most important one for the Conservative government. Politically, budget 2016 could be the most important one. Few days on the political calendar get more coverage than budget day ...

[Osborne] will argue that the UK has a choice between a 'certain' new deal that improves the UK's lot with the worst of austerity over, or, a choice with an uncertain long-term outcome that almost certainly damages the economy near term and sends progress on the public debt into reverse. This is powerful rhetoric to deliver on a key day and it won't be an opportunity he'll miss."