The Brexit muddle means pragmatism must win the day

Highly complex issue of EU membership means referendum remains uncertain and could prove hostage to sudden events

During a recent visit to the UK, I was struck by the extent to which the question of whether the country should remain in the European Union is dominating the media, boardroom discussions, and dinner conversations. While slogans and soundbites capture most of the attention, deeper issues in play leave the outcome of the 23 June referendum subject to a high degree of uncertainty - so much so that a single event could end up hijacking the decision.

Of course, the most cited arguments on both sides tend to be the most reductive. On one side are those who caution that departure from the EU would cause trade to collapse, discourage investment, push the UK into recession, and trigger the demise of the City of London as a global financial centre. They point to the pound's recent depreciation as a leading indicator of the financial instability that would accompany a British exit (or "Brexit").

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