Fed chair Yellen hints at summer US rate rise but urges caution – as it happened

• Yellen speaks at Harvard
• US economy grows by 0.8% in first quarter
• IMF criticises neoliberalism
• Introduction: US GDP, Yellen speech, and Putin...
• G7 leaders warn on global growth

6.54pm BST

So there you have it and the traders from New York can now go off to the Hamptons.

While not specifically mentioning a June rise, she did say it would probably be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to gradually raise rates in the coming months. But she urged caution and warned of hiking rates too steeply.

US dollar jumps after Yellen foreshadows hike 'in the coming months' https://t.co/w7EDVboxiy #forex, #forextrading

6.43pm BST

And now the key question. She is told that a New York money brokers are delaying their weekend trip to the Hamptons to see if she says anything market moving. So here is her chance to move markets (laughter) so can she say anything about the path of monetary policy?

Yellen: The economy is continuing to improve, we saw weak growth in first quarter of year. It looks to be picking up from data we monitor... We will monitor incoming data and risks.

6.37pm BST

On the economy, she says it has been a slow recovery but we have made a great deal of progress. We have created 14m new jobs since lowest point for employment.

We've made a lot of progress. That said, further gains are possible, we've not seen much improvement in wage growth.

6.28pm BST

Yellen says they are trying to be better at spotting financial instabilities, and they have a better process for doing that.

6.27pm BST

Yellen is praising her predecessor Ben Bernanke for being brave during the financial crisis, but she admits they did not see the crisis coming.

@Fedreserve212 Janet Yellen "America owes Ben Bernanke an enormous debt of gratitude" @WBUR @RadInstitute pic.twitter.com/ib7bXzALm9

6.25pm BST

Bloomberg has a better feed here.

6.20pm BST

Janet Yellen is now on stage at the Radcliffe Institute where the chair of the Federal Reserve is being given the Radcliffe Medal, "presented annually to an individual who has had a transformative impact on society."

5.51pm BST

The Russian president Vladimir Putin was quick to stamp the tone on his two-day visit as he begun talks with the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, reports Helena Smith:

"In Moscow and St Petersburg we have discussed our prospects of economic collaboration in detail. Of course there are many problems and times are difficult but for sure there are good prospects," said Putin. "We have to transform the good relations of [our] two peoples into tangible economic results."

Greece and Russia, fellow Orthodox states, with a common heritage that goes back to Byzantium have hailed 2016 to be a "year of Greek-Russian friendship."

Athens' governing left wing Syriza party has spoken stridently about the need to create a "multi-faceted" foreign policy - one which will see the country furthering relations with China, Russia, Iran and Latin America.

"We are trying to open up what used to be a very narrow western looking diplomatic attidude," the country's culture minister Aristides Baltas, a leading Syriza ideologue, told me.

5.00pm BST

Back in Greece and words of welcome for president Putin from the country's prime minister:

We warmly welcome President Putin to Greece (@KremlinRussia_E ). 1/2

His presence in Athens marks the strengthening of our relations during the past year. 2/2

Putin says #Greece visit offers chance to re-examine EU-Russia problems@AP story https://t.co/mGw9JdZxeq#Russia pic.twitter.com/jb9ZwKxnHS

4.52pm BST

There's no disguising the fact it was a pretty quiet day all round on European stock markets as the week drifted to a close. With investors unwilling to commit themselves ahead of comments from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen later - albeit there is little expectation of any real hints on interest rates - there was little to disturb the horses. Even the upward revision to US first quarter GDP passed without much impact. So the final scores showed:

3.51pm BST

In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority said it was investigating the 1.4bn takeover of Argos owner Home Retail by supermarket group Sainsbury.

It said it would be looking at whether the deal would hurt competition in the UK, and it would announce its decision by 25 July.

3.49pm BST

Back with the US GDP figures, and we could be looking at a weak figure for the second quarter according to Markit:

US Q1 GDP revised up from 0.5% to 0.8%, in line w/ PMI. Latter predicts similar weak Q2 rise https://t.co/FmuJFEYWNS pic.twitter.com/oLMW7MnnO7

3.24pm BST

#Greece's cash-strapped, overstretched security forces have deployed 2,500 police/snipers around #Athens in draconian security op 4 #Putin

3.14pm BST

And here's Russian president Putin arriving in Greece:

#Russia president Putin arrives in Athens on official visit pic.twitter.com/pCH5tQmz7C /via @d_daso #Greece

Putin arrives amid heavy security #Greece #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/bPOhhM3YQ5

3.09pm BST

American consumers are more confident in May than they were in April, but the latest survey has still come in lower than analysts had been forecasting.

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment for May was up from 89 in April to 94.7. But this was lower that the preliminary estimate of 95.8 and below the consensus of 95.4.

2.58pm BST

Meanwhile in Greece:

#Putin has touched down in #Athens. State-run TV showing his plane drawing up at red carpet NOW!

2.46pm BST

Investors are keeping their powder dry ahead of the remarks later from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, with the latest GDP revisions doing little to lift the mood.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28 points or 0.16% while the S&P 500 opened up 0.12% and Nasdaq just 0.09%.

2.14pm BST

And here's how the US slowdown looks:

First-quarter US economic growth revised higher to 0.8 per cent rate, from 0.5 per cent. https://t.co/Ht9PrGJRJ8 pic.twitter.com/f0Bk3cTnBr

2.02pm BST

A US interest rate rise in the next two months is unnecessary, given the uncertainty over the country's economy evidenced by the revised first quarter GDP figures, suggest the CEBR. It said:

We still expect the remaining three quarters of 2016 to make up for the first quarter slowdown. Despite the seasonal adjustment process, first quarter GDP data are often unreliable and overly gloomy due to seasonal factors such as winter weather. Our view is also supported by consistently strong job creation figures and a rebound in consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment saw an uptick in May due to a strong labour market showing and expectations that both inflation and interest rates would remain low.

However, the chances that interest rates will remain lower for longer are slimmer now than they were earlier this month...The minutes from the [latest Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, and statements made by Federal Reserve officials since, indicate that some FOMC members believe that the US labour market is at full employment and that this may start putting upward pressure on inflation.

1.48pm BST

David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco said:

The question is how this affects the odds on a Fed rate hike this summer? As far as the markets are concerned, not very much so far although it certainly keeps the prospect alive.

However, it's unlikely investors will want to take on additional exposure ahead of Janet Yellen's public appearance this evening and the long holiday weekend. Whether the Fed Chair says anything related to monetary policy is another matter altogether. What should prove far more significant is next week's raft of manufacturing PMIs along with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll release.

Yesterday's durable goods orders and home sales data would have put a smile on the face of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but today's underwhelming first quarter GDP report is unlikely to be as well-received.

It's not the most positive start to the financial year for the US and observers will now be keen to see if momentum can pick up in the next quarter.

1.47pm BST

Despite the revision, the figures show a slowdown in GDP compared to the fourth quarter which saw a 1.4% increase.

The overall figure was lifted by spending on home building and an increase in inventory investment by businesses.

1.34pm BST

The US economy grew more than originally thought in the first quarter, but less than some economists had been expecting.

As various members of the Federal Reserve suggested that a rate hike in June was not off the table, official figures showed an annualised 0.8% rise in GDP in the three months to March. This was higher than the first estimate of 0.5% but below estimates of a rise of 0.9%.

1.01pm BST

12.51pm BST

This really has been dullest morning in the City for a while.

Friday continued at an alarmingly dull pace this morning, though there is the chance for a bit of excitement from the US open later this afternoon.

The FTSE plodded along flat on the day, with the DAX and CAC effectively following the UK index's lead. Both regions had nothing in the way of data to offer this Friday, and with Brent Crude threatening to fall below $49 per barrel were lacking the recent commodity-buzz that has helped push the indices to 3 week highs.

12.16pm BST

Greece is prepares to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin, amid tight security and fears that the visit will cause ructions within the EU.

Putin's visit is billed as a way of deepening economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. He'll be discussing trade, energy and transport issues, and meeting with President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

2.500 police officers in #Athens - Tight security measures ahead of the visit of #Russian President Vladimir #Putin https://t.co/LIfjqM0Hl4

Moscow is primarily interested in buying state-run railway operator Trainose and a stake in Thessaloniki port, the country's second largest, as Putin reiterated in a commentary for Kathimerini published on Thursday ahead of the visit.

He also said that Russia - Greece's main gas supplier - is still very much interested in reviving the South Stream gas pipeline project.

"The extreme political and economic disruption Greece has experienced, in combination with existing cultural ties, make it a particularly attractive target for these kind of initiatives.

"Fundamentally these overtures are about sowing division and discord among the EU states in order to undermine the sanctions regime and, over the longer term, the EU as a whole."

Vladimir #Putin expected in Athens at 3.30pm local, to sign bilateral agreements. Visits Mt Athos Saturday.
More @Monocle24 soon
#Greece

Putin due in Athens today, with foreign minister & businessmen. Off to Mt Athos on Saturda https://t.co/ekh8vmTfcd #Greece #Russia

11.51am BST

Resolution's Duncan Weldon has now blogged about the IMF paper on the problems with neoliberal economics.

He explains that it's part of a wider change of thinking at the Fund, away from the "Washington consensus" that dominated thinking before the wheels came off the global economy in 2008.

Excessive fiscal tightening in countries that still have fiscal space simply hasn't worked as promised. There are plenty of countries with ample fiscal space that haven't used it and the world economy has suffered as a result.

In this respect the Fund; move towards backing capital controls is a consequences of the failure of Western fiscal policy makers to do enough to support growth and the unwillingness of Western monetary policy makers to take into account the global consequences of their actions.

A 3 minute read on "that" IMF article & why it's basically driven by advanced economy policymakers messing up: https://t.co/FuzbQk8ZNO

11.11am BST

Jonathan Ostry, the IMF economist who co-wrote its critique of neoliberalism, is hoping to trigger a new debate about economic orthodoxy.

The Financial Times has the details:

In an interview, Jonathan Ostry, deputy director of the IMF's research department and the article's lead author, said the new piece was not meant as an attack on "the entire neoliberal agenda or the Washington consensus". But he hoped it would set the stage for a broader examination of "neoliberalism" that would come out this year.

It also fitted, he argued, with work on everything from austerity and inequality to debt and the desirability of open capital accounts that he and others have been publishing since the 2008 financial crisis - and with a growing sentiment in the broader economics community.

10.29am BST

Neoliberal economics has attracted plenty of critics over the years, as the impact of privatisations, shrinking the state and austerity measures has become clear.

And now, a team at the International Monetary Fund have delivered a remarkable attack on the consequences of neoliberalism.

Is there really a defensible case for countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, or the United States to pay down the public debt?

Austerity policies not only generate substantial welfare costs due to supply-side channels, they also hurt demand-and thus worsen employment and unemployment.

IMF admits neoliberalism is a failure. So all the billionaires it created are going to give back their money, right? https://t.co/CEd4t47Ws3

File under: 1. Continuing shift against open capital accounts. 2. Left attitude to the IMF being about a decade out of date.

9.28am BST

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets wonder if Yellen might play it cool at Harvard:

In focus today will likely be Fed Chair Yellen's speech after the European close, especially after her colleagues (mostly non-voters) were out in force this week swaying expectations about a Summer rate hike.

Note, however, Yellen is only receiving an award from Harvard so may well swerve explicit mention of US monetary policy to avoid adding fuel to the fire.

9.17am BST

Janet Yellen's comments may not come until around 5.30pm BST, or later.

She's due to speak at a lunch at Harvard, along with her predecessor Ben Bernanke. More details here.

9.06am BST

Janet Yellen could move the markets today, when she visits Harvard to collect the Radcliffe Medal in recognition of her work.

FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga says investors will be watching the Fed chair closely, for any hints that a rate hike could be close.

Sentiment towards the US economy has improved this month with an impressive array of domestic data bolstering speculation that US rates could be increased in June or July. With retail sales, inflation and new homes sales exceeding forecasts, the prerequisites for another US rate hike in Q2 could be fulfilled if US GDP and next week's NFP exceed expectations.

Yellen's comments could act as a catalyst today for Dollar bulls to rampage if she chants the same hawkish tune as the other board governors. Although the CME group Fedwatch tool displays a 26% probability that a June hike could occur, concerns over slowing global growth and persistent China woes may also disrupt the Fed's efforts to take action.

9.01am BST

Europe's stock markets are open, but frankly there's little happening out there.

The main indices are all broadly unchanged, as investors wait for the US growth figures at 1.30pm BST.

Commodity stocks are still finding favour, helped in no small part by US dollar weakness amidst the idea that the Fed may not be in a position to hike rates next month as had been earlier thought.

8.48am BST

A glimmer of good news from across the Channel.

French consumer confidence has hit its highest level since October 2007, when the world economy was reeling from the credit crunch.

French shoppers are having their best month since the financial crisis https://t.co/IlsPshgm2P pic.twitter.com/0Ywl8x0Iae

Striking French workers continued to disrupt oil refineries and nuclear power stations, halted some air traffic and trains and prevented almost all national newspapers from printing in the growing industrial action. Union activists blocked roads and bridges in northern France while some train drivers and air traffic controllers joined the action.

Related: Riot police crack down on Paris protests against labour reforms

8.43am BST

World leaders at the G7 meeting in Tokyo have declared that global growth is their "urgent priority", but not actually announced any new measures to deal with it.

The official declaration following the meeting declares:

Global growth remains moderate and below potential, while risks of weak growth persist.....

G7 world leaders declare: "UK exit from the EU..serious risk to growth" "would reverse trend towards greater trade" pic.twitter.com/hYifbvqw4x

8.32am BST

Japan's stock market has gained ground today, following reports that prime minister Shinzo Abe is considering postponing one of his flagship policies.

Abe dropped a broad hint earlier today that the planned hike in sales tax could be delayed.

"We must reignite powerfully the engine of Abenomics. That undoubtedly would include a decision on what to do with the sales tax hike."

#Japan's Nikkei ends up 0.4% at 16834.84 on reports Abe will delay hike to sales tax. pic.twitter.com/vXm8ZMFDdv

8.13am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It's Friday, and it's a bit quiet. But there are still a few events coming up that might get the blood pumping.

Yellen speaks at Harvard's Radcliffe Day, where she will engage in "a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements." The widespread expectation is, of course, that she will reiterate the more hawkish line taken by almost all recent Fed speakers.

Related: G7 summit: Obama makes historic visit to Hiroshima - live