Inflationary pressures building despite stable May data

Prices in the restaurants and hotels sector were 2.6% higher in May than they were a year earlier

Oil prices have risen. A lower pound is making imports dearer. The more generous minimum wage is pushing up the cost of hiring labour. Signs of inflationary pressure can be seen everywhere apart from in the official measure of the cost of living.

As usual, the City was expecting the headline annual inflation rate to rise in May. As usual, it was wrong. Instead of rising to 0.4%, inflation remained at 0.3%, where it has been in each month of 2015 apart from March, which was affected by the early timing of Easter.

Related: UK inflation unchanged at 0.3% in May