Experts get it wrong again by failing to predict Trump victory

Economic and political forecasters failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 2008 recession - and this year has been even worse

" Become a Guardian supporter or make a contribution

Global markets were rocked by the stunning news from the US presidential election. The Mexican peso was down 12% at one point. The US dollar fell 2.5% against the yen. Markets have been hedging a Trump win with gold, which was up by $40 an ounce, or 3.2%. Uncertainty is in the air.

It must be said that this has been a disastrous decade for professional forecasters of the economic and political varieties. Donald Trump was behind in the daily poll average published by Real Clear Politics every one of the past 95 days and won. On Monday 7^t November, of the 10 national polls that were issued, nine had Trump behind. A couple of polling organisations did have it right but were ignored. It turns out that a Trump victory wasn't a total surprise. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll, which was the most accurate in the previous three elections, 2004, 2008 and 2012, in its final poll on 8 November had Trump two points ahead. The LA Times tracking poll had Trump consistently ahead since the end of October and in its latest poll on Monday he was ahead by three. The biggest difference apparently involved weighting - that is, the process of adjusting a poll's data to make sure it properly represents the diversity of the population.

Related: Globalisation backlash enters new phase with Trump win