The UK economy is slowing – experts debate the Brexit watch data

Two ex-members of the Bank of England interest rate-setting committee discuss what lies in store after the EU referendum

David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) from June 2006 to May 2009

The UK economy is slowing, there is no doubt about it. The incoming data so far though are mixed as it is early days post the Brexit vote. The PMIs were quite strong, suggesting GDP growth isn't set to slow sharply in the fourth quarter of 2016 but 2017 is likely a different matter. Retail sales were also pretty good. Despite the boost from the fall in sterling, Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world widened unexpectedly in September. Inflation surprised to the downside but major price rises look to be in the pipeline as factory gate prices increased 0.6% in October compared with an increase of 0.3% in September.

Related: The Brexit economy: remarkable resilience as spectre of inflation looms