Philip Hammond presents the 2016 autumn statement – as it happened
Rolling coverage and analysis as chancellor Philip Hammond announces122bn of extra borrowing and new spending plans
- OBR forecasts don't include 'bumpy Brexit'
- Borrowing will be 122bn larger than planned...
- ...including 58bn Brexit hit
- McDonnell: Long-term economic plan has failed
- Hammond gives autumn statement: highlights start here
- Tell us how Hammond's statement affects you
6.32pm GMT
For six years George Osborne, as chancellor, David Cameron and all their ministerial colleagues were able to bulldoze through opposition to their policies by asserting that they had a "long-term economic plan". It passed the test of all good soundbites by becoming so familiar as to be groan-inducing. In some respects the term was misleading, because Osborne missed his targets and had to rejig his plans, but the claim that the Conservatives were on a path towards eliminating the deficit seemed to impress the public and this strategy helped Osborne and Cameron to win the 2015 general election.
Today Philip Hammond consigned the LTEP to the dustbin. In truth, it collapsed the day the UK voted for Brexit but Hammond had to tell MPs that the EU referendum result has blasted a huge hole in the national finances and he has all but abandoned any hope of getting the budget into surplus on his watch. Osborne's targets have been abandoned, the government plans to carry on borrowing and spending (the autumn statement envisages a fiscal loosening of almost 9bn by 2021-22) and, although the Treasury hopes to balance the budget in the 2020s, it won't say when this might happen. All of this is quite sensible, but it is not the economic prudence that won the Tories the 2015 election.
6.31pm GMT
Philip Hammond buried the government's goal of balancing the nation's budget in this parliament today -- and the financial markets didn't bat an eyelid.
The pound has jumped by one percent against the euro today, to a1.18 -- a ten-week high. It's also higher against the dollar tonight too, up half a cent at $1.245.
The better OBR forecast - fan chart says an 80% chance that GDP growth is between -0.2% and +2.9% in 2017. 20% chance between 1.1% & 1.7%. pic.twitter.com/p9Py6sbsbD
OBR says that half of the extra 122bn borrowing comes from Brexit (59bn). Of rest 26bn is other forecast changes & 15bn capital spending pic.twitter.com/U18fOi0xfS
OBR is expecting average real wage growth to stall - but not fall - post-Brexit vote #AutumnStatement More optimistic than many forecasters. pic.twitter.com/l29ONOLnrd
In my view, substantial risks to the UK's economy remain, bringing into question an implicit suggestion that animal spirits will suddenly rise in the years ahead.
As it stands, the country continues to face the same uncertainties that triggered such a sharp decline in the value of sterling in the aftermath of the EU referendum vote.
6.02pm GMT
This is from the BBC's Andrew Neil.
During Referendum George Osborne warned that leaving EU = 500,000 job losses.
Today's OBR says employment will rise by 500,000 by 2021.
6.00pm GMT
Leave Means Leave has, curiously, chosen not to challenge the OBR analysis of the impact of Brexit in its autumn statement reaction (see 5.44pm), but Patrick Minford, co-chair of Economists for Brexit, has taken it on. He has put out this statement.
The OBR's report issued today contains a number of assumptions around the impact of Brexit which simply follows the path of countless other establishment bodies, which have assumed a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy outside the EU, based on bad economic policy-making . Whilst it acknowledges the fact that the decision of the government's chosen path is uncertain, it then applies what amounts to an arbitrary Brexit penalty on the UK economy without any proper justification. Why does it assume lower productivity, a spending slowdown due to uncertainty and lower immigration?
The work of Economists for Brexit has shown in each of these cases the reverse to be true. Our forecasts show that there is a positive impact of being outside of the single market and embracing free trade under WTO rules, creating an additional 4% GDP over the long term; recent outturns for the second and third quarters have shown clearly that there is no uncertainty effect; and on immigration our estimates are that unskilled migrants cost a total of 6.6 billion a year. Clearly, better control of unskilled workers, whilst continuing to encourage skilled migration can only have a positive economic impact. .
5.55pm GMT
Ashwin Kumar, chief economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, says poor households faces a tough 2017, with inflation likely to devour wage rises.
"Many families will gain by modest amounts of a few pounds a week from the reduction in the Universal Credit taper rate and the rise in the income tax personal allowance. However these gains will be dwarfed by much bigger cuts to work allowances imposed by George Osborne in April this year.
A couple with two children each earning 25,000 a year will see a benefit of 588 a year from the income tax and universal credit taper changes, but will lose 1,308 from the benefit freeze and the cut in Universal Credit work allowances.
"We know that during uncertain times charities are increasingly relied upon to support those in most need. In recent years charities have experienced rising demand for their services while resources have been increasingly stretched.
Related: Voluntary sector reactions to 2016 autumn statement
5.51pm GMT
Here is some reaction to the autumn statement from thinktanks.
From Torsten Bell, director of the Resolution Foundation
The big picture today is the new chancellor accepting a major increase in borrowing, partly off the back of the Brexit vote, and choosing to increase it further with an expensive but welcome increase in capital spending. The result is 122bn additional borrowing, with national debt reaching 90 per cent of GDP next year.
The outlook for family finances that lies behind the big growth and borrowing figures is also bleak, with average earnings set to be 830 lower by the end of the parliament than previously forecast.
2017 is going to be a tough year as wages will barely grow faster than prices. Whilst there will be modest gains for some people from today's Autumn Statement, for most people on below-average incomes, these will be dwarfed by previously announced cuts to benefits.
With average wage growth predicted to be 2.4% and prices forecast to go up by 2.3%, most families will not feel much better off. The increase in the minimum wage will bring some relief to those on the lowest earnings, although even this is lower than predicted last March.
This was a thin and fiddly statement, so it's a relief that the chancellor has found one area of government activity to cut in abolishing the autumn statement. Sadly though, he has abandoned any attempt to balance the books. Over the next five years the government will be adding over 233bn to the national debt, as much as the entire annual welfare bill. Fiscal rules to this government sadly seem to be no more than vague aspirations which are abandoned with impunity.
On the upside, the chancellor does seem to realise, however, that there's no need to implement policy for the sake of it. A boring budget statement is better than a gimmicky one.
This was a continuity autumn statement - deficit reduction while delivering the manifesto and a productivity plan.
It's essentially Osbornomics plus 100n of extra borrowing.
At the beginning of his speech the chancellor made the now familiar claim that the British economy is in a strong condition. But the rest of his speech gave the lie to this.
As he then admitted, UK investment and productivity are far below our major competitors, we have a record trade deficit, an unsustainable fiscal gap between projected tax receipts and public expenditure, and a regionally deeply unbalanced economy between London and the Southeast and the rest of the country.
No one is in any doubt that the government has a sizeable challenge trying to boost economic growth against a backdrop of ongoing instability caused by Brexit. At the same time, the government's commitment to the JAMs - perhaps in part recognising many voted to leave the EU as an expression of their frustration with the statue quo - necessitates spending in areas that matter most to them.
This seems to be the approach Hammond is taking - popular giveaways such as the fuel duty freeze mixed with investment for growth. It seems incongruous, however, that we should be raising 40% tax bracket at all, helping as it does those at the upper end of the income scale while reducing the government's tax take.
5.44pm GMT
Here is the comment on the autumn statement sent out by Leave Means Leave, the successor to Leave.EU. It is from John Longworth, Leave Means Leave's co-chair. We're quoting it in full. It does not mention the OBR analysis of the impact of Brexit at all.
The chancellor has made a good start on the road to making the British economy the best in the world.
Investing in infrastructure and research and development, improving access to finance - particularly for tech companies which ensures they do not have to sell out to foreign competitors, and funding for the Oxford - Cambridge expressway are all very positive announcements.
5.38pm GMT
Further OBR detail shows that the 80,000 a year reduction in net migration expected to follow the Brexit vote will cost Britain 16bn over the next five years.
The OBR tables show that the reduction in net migration will come as a result of a tighter net migration policy and the UK becoming a less attractive place for migrants will cost the UK economy. It estimates that cut in migration will cost the UK economy 0.8bn in 2016/17 rising to 5.9bn a year by 2020/21. This is a total of 16bn over the next five years.
5.35pm GMT
Buried on page 160 of its report, the OBR makes the surprising prediction that Britain will be paying more to the EU in 2018-19 and beyond, despite Brexit.
The watchdog has calculated that the fall in the pound will push up the UK's contributions to the EU budget (which are paid in euros), by 800m in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and 900m in 2020-21.
The Government has said it wishes to negotiate a bespoke arrangement with the EU. That may or may not include agreeing to contribute to the EU budget to retain some of the benefits that it has enjoyed from membership.
Gosh - didn't pick this up. A round 1bn pa of EU transfers only due to the slump induced by Brexiteers who objected to EU transfers. Ok.. pic.twitter.com/u9ptBdcLv1
5.33pm GMT
David Finch from the Resolution Foundation says the autumn statement reverses only 7% of the losses affecting the poorest half of households during this parliament.
#AutumnStatement measures reverse only 7% of losses for poorest half of hhlds from policies already in train this parliament @resfoundation pic.twitter.com/4smDxwxW9D
5.27pm GMT
As Sky's Faisal Islam points out, the autumn statement document shows that the government's "welfare cap" (a spending limit for certain welfare payments) is being relaxed.
The Welfare Cap has been "reformed" it is now "medium term", it has been raised higher (cap, eh?) ...will only be assessed by OBR in 4 years pic.twitter.com/S0q5vTdIq0
And the 'welfare cap' requires a subset of welfare spending to be held below a cash limit set in July 2015, but we now expect this to overshoot by more than 7 per cent by 2020-21.
5.13pm GMT
Caroline Lucas, the Green party's co-leader, criticised Philip Hammond for not mentioning climate change in the autumn statement. She said:
With Trump's election this could have been a moment for Britain to become a world-leader in the fight against catastrophic climate change but, instead, we see little evidence of a commitment to facing up to the greatest challenge of our times. Indeed, it is shameful that the chancellor failed to even mention climate change in his speech. By caving into the motor lobby and freezing fuel duty again for the seventh year in a row the government has made a mockery of the fact that it is the hottest year on record and condemned us to more carbon emissions and deadly pollution.
5.10pm GMT
And here is Mark Reckless, a member of the Welsh assembly, responding to the autumn statement on behalf of Ukip.
Despite the fearsome predictions of remain supporters, the overall prognosis for the economy is good, as we knew it would be. The official forecast is that unemployment in 2020 after we have left the EU will be just 860,000. This administers the last rites to the infamous claim that 3m jobs would be lost if we left the EU.
We are borrowing too much, 68bn this year, 59bn next, and 122bn more than planned across the forecast period. The government has talked tough on austerity but failed to match its words with deeds.
5.07pm GMT
Here is Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, on the autumn statement.
This is a government that is just about managing. The official figures have revealed a 220bn Brexit black hole- hundreds of billions taken out our economy when we need it most. Given how bad the outlook is, it's no wonder the chancellor doesn't want to have to do another autumn statement.
The OBR figures forecast a rise a unemployment and a fall in living standards.
5.03pm GMT
The autumn statement was greeted with dismay within the education sector, which has been vociferously complaining about severe and worsening funding pressures in schools, with courses being cut, jobs lost and some sixth forms forced to close.
In contrast to George Osborne's budget in March where education was at the forefront of his announcements, education was barely mentioned in the statement, bar the chancellor's confirmation of new capital funding to support the expansion of existing grammar schools - first announced in September.
The situation is so serious that some are struggling to deliver a full curriculum, courses are having to be cut and some sixth forms are closing.
We know that school budgets are being pushed beyond breaking point. Almost nine out of ten school leaders are telling us that a rise in national insurance employer contributions and pension contributions are the key reasons behind financial pressures in their school.
Freezing budgets at a time of rising costs is no protection at all. Capital investment in grammar schools is the wrong priority, and a distraction from the most important issues in education.
5.02pm GMT
Our economics editor Larry Elliott says that the autumn statement contained some important self truths about the UK economy:
Philip Hammond's message was stark and clear. The result of the EU referendum in June means the economy has arrived at a reality checkpoint. Deep-seated weaknesses will be exposed as the government negotiates a Brexit divorce between now and 2019.
The chancellor was candid about Britain's woefully poor productivity record. He admitted that infrastructure was deficient. There was no attempt to disguise the fact that there is a prosperity gap between London and other major cities.
Related: Philip Hammond's autumn statement is a welcome reality check
4.59pm GMT
The Welsh government's finance secretary, Mark Drakeford, said the extra funding for Wales promised by the chancellor went some way to restoring cuts to its capital budget over recent years.
The autumn statement included more than 400m of additional capital funding for Wales between 2016-17 and 2020-21 and 35.8m of revenue funding between over the same period. Drakeford said:
As a government, we have been clear about the importance of investing in Wales' infrastructure - in these uncertain times this is more important than ever. This is why we called on the UK government to boost investment to support economic growth.
Although today's announcement doesn't go as far as we had hoped, this extra investment goes some way to restoring the cuts we have seen to our capital budget over recent years.
4.56pm GMT
Big decisions on energy have been bumped to a future budget. The fate of a future cap on subsidies for green energy such as offshore windfarms is now due in the spring budget next year, the autumn statement says.
The chancellor said a carbon tax which is driving coal power plants to close would be kept at current levels until 2020, but failed to set out its long term plan (something George Osborne promised in the spring that this budget would do). As some commentators pointed out, today offered no clarity for the energy sector beyond the short term.
4.55pm GMT
The plot thickens.... the Department for Business is now briefing that there's NO new contingent liability with Nissan. So why wouldn't the Treasury tell the OBR that?!
Beis: No "new contingent liabilities have been created re Nissan". Doesn't solve mystery of why Treasury didn't answer - don't they agree?
BEIS: No "new contingent liabilities have been created re Gov assurances for Nissan". So no Gov dept will publish anything #OBR
4.54pm GMT
The TUC says the autumn statement shows working people will lose 1,000 a year by 2020. TUC economist Geoff Tilly explains in a blog:
Overall real earnings are now expected to rise by only 23 a week between 2015 and 2020; at the budget they were expected to rise by 41. This difference of 18 a week amounts to nearly 1000 a year (955).
Today's OBR forecast shows that the average annual wage will be 1,000 lower in 2020 than predicted at the Budget. And this is on top of wages still having not recovered to their 2007 levels.
This is yet another blow to ordinary working people's standard of living. And far from being focussed on 'just about managing' families, this shows up the government's plans as inadequate.
4.47pm GMT
In his statement Philip Hammond announced various measures to increase housebuilding, including a 2.3bn housing infrastructure fund to build infrastructure to new homes.
But, according to the OBR, the autumn statement measures will cut residential investment.
The autumn statement includes a number of policies that are likely to affect housebuilding and residential investment. Dropping the requirement for housing associations to move to a shared ownership model and abandoning plans to force higher rents on some tenants will both reduce the cash inflows available for housebuilding. Partly offsetting that, additional grant funding and other smaller measures will increase cash inflows and boost housebuilding. The net effect is to reduce cumulative housebuilding by housing associations by around 13,000 over the forecast period, with a boost next year becoming a drag by 2019-20.
4.39pm GMT
The government's refusal to disclose what, if anything, it has promised Nissan about Brexit is causing quite a row.
The Independent's Rob Merrick has asked the OBR whether the government has actually broken the law; the watchdog thinks not, but is keen that everyone knows about the Treasury's reticence:
OBR on whether govt has broken law by refusing details of any Nissan deal: "Doubt it...but imp to tell everyone it hadn't answered question"
.@Independent asks OBR whether Govt had broken the law by refusing to give OBR (mandated by Parliament) the detail of Nissan deal
@Sime0nStylites @JolyonMaugham Answer implies there *are* contingent liabilities in Nissan deal, but HMT is just not disclosing them to OBR
Woh! OBR asks if there are contingent liabilities from the Nissan deal. Treasury point blank refuses to say. pic.twitter.com/WsHuxMNUqN
4.17pm GMT
The OBR says that if it hadn't been for the Brexit vote their projection for annual net migration to Britain would have been 80,000 a year higher at 312,000 in 2017 falling to 265,000 by 2021 and contributed around 0.2 percentage points each year to potential growth in the economy. They estimate that this net migration factor alone accounts for 0.9 percentage points of their judgement that the EU referendum has reduced potential output by 2.4 percentage points.
Instead they assume that annual net migration, currently running at 330,000, will fall to 232,000 in 2017 and 185,000 by 2021. This is still far higher than Theresa May's declared object of getting net migration down below 100,000 a year.
4.14pm GMT
Drive, baby, drive - that was the message from chancellor Philip Hammond's autumn budget statement, with more money paving the way to new roads and a freeze on fuel tax. These steamroller the funds offered for electric cars.
That's a problem, as the UK already has an air pollution crisis that causes tens of thousands of early deaths - more traffic will only make it worse. Furthermore, rising transport emissions are one of the biggest obstacles to the nation meeting its legal targets for cutting carbon emissions.
Related: Drive, baby, drive: Hammond's autumn statement is more grey than green
4.05pm GMT
British workers face a sharp earnings squeeze next year, says the OBR, as the weaker pound drives up inflation.
The watchdog predicts that inflation will wipe out almost all pay rises in 2017.
The fall in the pound will squeeze households' real incomes by pushing up import prices.
We expect the pound's fall to add almost 2 per cent to the level of consumer prices over the next two years, relative to our March assumption. Real earnings growth will consequently fall close to zero next year. That squeeze is expected to hold back real private consumption growth in 2017 and 2018.
830 lower earnings in 2021 is what all big numbers mean for working people - 370 from higher inflation & 460 via lower nominal earnings pic.twitter.com/dkgVReFTMX
4.04pm GMT
And in the Commons George Osborne, the former Conservative chancellor, told his successor that he was right to "keep his powder dry" (ie, not increase spending too much now) because of the risk that he might need to revive the economy in the future. He said:
Can I warmly congratulate my friend and successor on a strong statement and an assured delivery. The independent OBR has given us a very sober assessment of the economic and borrowing challenges that Britain faces and the chancellor is right to keep his powder dry.
4.00pm GMT
In the Commons Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, told Philip Hammond that, although Hammond told the Tory conference that people did not vote for Brexit to become poorer, the OBR is saying that is exactly what they did vote for. Miliband said:
[Hammond] said at the Tory party conference that the British people did not vote to become poorer. The OBR tells us on p19 that 58bn of the worsening in the public finances is due to the Brexit decision. Isn't it a salutary warning to us about the decisions we take in the coming months and isn't it a very strong argument for us to remain as close as possible to our largest trading area the single market and inside not outside the customs union?
3.52pm GMT
One of George Osborne's most peculiar policies was his decision to give a tax break to workers who agreed to forfeit some of their employment rights. Many commentators thought it was barmy idea, but Osborne liked it because it allowed him to show Tory rightwingers that he had not completely ignored the regulation-slashing proposals in the infamous Beecroft report.
Anyway, it turns out Philip Hammond thinks it's a duff idea too. It has been scrapped. This is what the autumn statement document says:
The tax advantages linked to shares awarded under ESS [employee shareholder status] will be abolished for arrangements entered into on, or after, 1 December 2016. The status itself will be closed to new arrangements at the next legislative opportunity. This is in response to evidence suggesting that the status is primarily being used for tax planning instead of supporting a more flexible workforce.
3.45pm GMT
The OBR are now briefing economics journalists about today's autumn statement.
The watchdog is warning that Britain's economy is dogged by uncertainty, and is particularly concerned that Brexit could hurt productivity.
OBR briefing starts with chair Robert Chote after Hammond's first Autumn statement set out worse outlook for growth and borrowing pic.twitter.com/HlUuqmAgNy
How do you solve a problem like forecasting ahead of Brexit? Here's what OBR is doing pic.twitter.com/VWwUJU8qZK
OBR sees inflation peaking at 2.6% in spring 2018, that's lower than Bank of England outlook. It sees inflation 2.7 in 2017 and 2018 pic.twitter.com/SjMzD8JXI0
On trade, the OBR sees weaker boosting export vols. but in value terms it sees worse trade deficit throughout f'cast period than in March
OBR: Brexit not supplanted, but rather increased, main uncertainty already around UK outlook, namely the prospects for productivity growth
Room to spare for more bad news. OBR sums up the decisions in Hammond's #AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/LpGBLnFwkx
3.39pm GMT
At PMQs Jeremy Corbyn demonstrated quite effectively how health spending is likely to be one of the key issues over coming years. (See 12.22pm.)
But the autumn statement had more or less nothing to say on health. In his speech Philip Hammond had one sentence about the NHS, confirming that the government will back the NHS five-year forward plan.
3.23pm GMT
The Office for Budget Responsibility will probably be accused by Brexiteers of being overly pessimistic about the economic impact of Brexit.
But in its report (pdf) it says that things could get even worse than it is forecasting, because is it not assuming mass lay-offs and consumer spending drying up, even though these are both possibilities. (We've put the key sentence in bold.)
Given the uncertainty surrounding the choices and trade-offs that the Government may have to make, and the consequences of different outcomes, we have not attempted to predict the precise end result of the negotiations. Instead we have made a judgement - consistent with most external studies - that over the time horizon of our forecast any likely Brexit outcome would lead to lower trade flows, lower investment and lower net inward migration than we would otherwise have seen, and hence lower potential output. In time the performance of the economy will also be affected by future choices that the Government makes about regulatory and other policies that are currently determined at the European level. These could move in either a growth-enhancing or a growth-impeding direction.
In the near term, as the negotiations get under way, we assume that GDP growth will continue to slow into next year as uncertainty leads firms to delay investment and as consumers are squeezed by higher import prices, thanks to the fall in the pound. But we do not assume that firms shed jobs more aggressively or that consumers increase precautionary saving, both of which are downside risks if the path to Brexit is bumpy.
3.21pm GMT
The government has refused to reveal if it has made any promises to Japanese carmaker Nissan over Brexit, the Office for Budget Responsibility reveals.
Great stuff from OBR. "We asked Govt what Brexit meant. They told us Brexit means Brexit, which was bloody useless." pic.twitter.com/nchHj71HOt
Even Baldrick had a plan, etc ... #brexit https://t.co/jvsPp1bCe0
3.07pm GMT
Here is the Treasury paper (pdf) with the charts showing the distributional impact of the autumn statement measures.
This chart, which shows the impact of autumn statement decisions in 2019-20, shows that it has been progressive, because the poor are gaining more than the rich. The Treasury says the gains are "modest" but those in the second decile from the bottom gain most in proportional terms. That is probably to a large extent because of the universal credit changes, which will help the working poor.
2.56pm GMT
The Office for Budget Responsibility has done a really good job of trying to calculate the impact of the EU referendum.
There's a whole appendix, called Annex B (p239 onwards), in which the OBR tries to construct a 'counterfactual' world in which Britain voted to stay in the European Union (alas, unhappy Remain voters can't migrate to it).
OBR put direct Brexit-related additional borrowing at 58.7bn over 6 years. Or, if you prefer, "188mn a week".
2.43pm GMT
Here are verdicts on the autumn statement from the Guardian's panel, Matthew d'Ancona, Martin Kettle, and Gaby Hinsliff.
Paradoxically, however, today was just about the one day when something like a budgetary statement was in order from the chancellor. That's because of one thing alone - Brexit. Hammond's statement was a chance to make a first big assessment of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. The verdict is, without question, bleak. Growth is down, borrowing has to rise, and the dream of a surplus has been deferred to "as soon as practicable", ie never.
Hammond's other big problem is that tax take is falling. All those references in his speech to sustaining the tax base are Treasury code for the fact that Britain has continued to become a low wage, tax avoiding and increasingly unequal economy since 2010, in which there's not enough public money to pay for public spending. That demands either more taxes or less spending, or both. Hammond has allowed himself to be boxed in on both options. But he gave a very important signal that pensions - and, less importantly in budgetary terms, the aid budget - will be cut after 2020, and the pension triple lock will be broken.
2.34pm GMT
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, responded to the autumn statement for Labour. Here are the key points from his speech.
Today's statement places on record the abject failure of the last six wasted years and offers no hope for the future.
We've heard today there'll be more taxes, more debt and more borrowing.
We now face Brexit, the greatest economic challenge of a generation, and we face it unprepared and ill-equipped.
The chancellor must now do the right thing for British workers and businesses. He must insist on full, tariff-free access to the single market. He and the Treasury know that's what will give the best deal for jobs and prosperity here. It may not be in the chancellor's nature, but in the national interest I urge him to stand up to the prime minister and the extreme Brexit fanatics in her cabinet.
We have had a month of briefings from the party opposite on those people who are called just about managing - the Jams. To the party opposite these people are just an electoral demographic. To us they are our friends, our neighbours and the people we represent.
Many elderly people will remain trapped in their homes, isolated and lonely, lacking the care they need because of these continuing cuts to social care. You can't cut social care without also hitting the NHS.
There are just no new ideas here, just a promise to deliver what they previously failed to deliver on. This is press release policy-making and not provision. All we need now is the return of the hi-vis jacket. The fourth industrial revolution will not be delivered on delays, on old news and re-announcements.
2.30pm GMT
Iain Wright MP has spotted that the OBR fears UK economic productivity could be weaker after Brexit:
This is a big concern: the independent @OBR_UK says that the productivity challenge may be even more difficult when Britain leaves the EU pic.twitter.com/pZRnMR3Twi
2.18pm GMT
Brexit may mean Brexit, but for the OBR it also means a major headache when it has tried to assess the likely path of the UK economy.
Like the rest of us, it doesn't know what deal Britain will get - hard, soft, smooth, or something else entirely.
...any likely Brexit outcome would lead to lower trade flows, lower investment and lower net inward migration than we would otherwise have seen, and hence lower potential output.
2.17pm GMT
Philip Hammond is setting aside almost 0.5bn to help the civil service prepare for Brexit, the autumn statement document reveals. Here is the key paragraph, 3.34. We've highlighted the key sentence in bold.
Additional resource will be provided to strengthen trade policy capability in the Department for International Trade (DIT) and Foreign and Commonwealth Office, totalling 26 million a year by 2019-20. There will also be additional resource of up to 51 million in 2016-17 for the Department for Exiting the European Union to support the re-negotiation of the UK's relationship with the European Union. Up to 94 million a year of additional resource will be allocated from 2017-18 until the UK's exit is complete. In total this will mean up to 412 million of additional funding over the course of this Parliament.
2.04pm GMT
The next time a Conservative politician talks about getting the debt under control, direct them to page 14 of the OBR's economic and fiscal outlook.
It shows that Britain's national debt is expected to hit 1.945trn by 2019-20, the end of the current parliament, and continue climbing to 1.952trn by 2021-22.
Wow. OBR forecasts 220bn increase in national debt by end of parliament to staggering 1.945 trillion. Huge Brexit impact
1.56pm GMT
And here is the key table from the autumn statement document (pdf) - the scorecard, saying what the various measures in the statement cost, or raise in revenue.
1.51pm GMT
Here's that OBR scorecard in full:
#AutumnStatement OBR points out past fiscal rules breached, new ones focused on "structural deficit" so easier to meet than overall deficit pic.twitter.com/E8WOfiED7o
1.49pm GMT
You can find all the autumn statement documents here, on the Treasury website.
1.45pm GMT
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility has just released its verdict.
And it rules that Philip Hammond has delivered a 'modest giveaway', alongside a decidedly weaker economic landscape.
The Chancellor has relaxed his fiscal targets to make space for a modest infrastructure spending giveaway over the next five years.
A weaker outlook for the economy and tax revenues - and these new spending commitments - mean that the budget is no longer expected to return to surplus in this Parliament, with a 21 billion deficit remaining in 2020-21.
Public sector net borrowing is now expected to fall more slowly than we forecast in March, primarily reflecting weak tax receipts so far this year and a more subdued outlook for economic growth as the UK negotiates a new relationship with the European Union.
1.40pm GMT
We were promised a sober, gimmick-free autumn statement from Philip Hammond and, appropriately enough, the main surprise at the end of Hammond's speech was an announcement that he is abolishing the Treasury's biannual tax-and-spend bonanza. It was Gordon Brown who created the autumn statement in its modern form, a budget in all but name, and most economists and governance experts will agree with Hammond about these being unnecessary, because governments do not need to re-write the tax code every six months. MPs laughed, though, when Hammond announced this because it is clear that next year we will get two budgets, and after that we will a "spring statement" that may over time morph into an alternative budget. Most of the positive announcements in the statement had been flagged up well in advance, but it sounded as if some of his revenue-raising measures will be more significant than MPs realised. Graeme and I will be delving into the small print shortly. And there was also an intriguing reference to the ageing population, and the need to review budgets after 2020, which sounded like the death knell to the triple lock.
1.35pm GMT
We're collecting all the key points from Hammond's statement here:
Related: Key points of the autumn statement - at a glance
1.29pm GMT
Hammond says this autumn statement responds to the challenges the country faces. It responds to the challenge of the country living beyond its means. And it provides helps to those who need it.
And that's it. Hammond has finished.
1.28pm GMT
Hammond says this is his first autumn statement - and his last.
He is abolishing the autumn statement.
1.26pm GMT
Hammond says he is cancelling the proposed fuel duty rise for the seventh successive year.
This will save the average driver 130 a year, and the average van driver 350 a year.
1.24pm GMT
Hammond says the government will consider measures to help savers. It is proposing a savers bond for them. It will pay 2.2% interest.
1.24pm GMT
Hammond turns to letting agents. Their fees have spiralled, despite attempts to regulate them. This is wrong, he says. The government will ban fees for tenants.
And it will ban pension cold-calling, he says.
1.22pm GMT
Hammond says he can go further to help families on low wages.
Universal credit is an important reform, he says.
1.22pm GMT
Philip Hammond managed a rare trick in his first autumn statement -- he made the UK economy look even worse than we feared.
Britain's Brexit black hole is at least 122bn -- even larger than the 100bn that the City was expecting.
Scale of extra borrowing is much worse than expected - borrowing an additional 122bn cumulatively by 2020/21
New borrowing forecasts are a cumulative 122B higher over the next five years #AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/e81xHZKaZH
Tory economic failure: Borrowing has been revised UP by 122 billion #AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/QbRZQ6wawl
1.21pm GMT
Hammond says the government has given a pay rise to low-paid workers through the "national living wage".
He says he is making capital available for new grammar schools.
1.20pm GMT
Hammond turns to the personal allowance.
It will rise to 11,500 in April, he says.
1.18pm GMT
Hammond says the government has done more than any other to tackle tax avoidance and evasion.
The tax gap is one of the lowest in the world, he says.
1.16pm GMT
Hammond says from April 2017 employers and employees who use benefits in kind schemes will pay the same tax as everyone else. But there will be exceptions, including for childcare and cycling.
1.15pm GMT
Hammond says insurance premium tax will rise from 10% to 12%
And he says the government will change the rules on whiplash compensation, saving drivers 40 a year on average.
1.14pm GMT
Hammond says he wants Britain to remain the number one destination for business.
He knows how much business values certainty. So the government will stick to the business tax plans set out in the March budget.
1.11pm GMT
He says the government will keep its commitments to protect budgets it said it would protect.
But in the next parliament it will have to tackle the challenges of an ageing population. So budgets will be reviewed at the next spending review.
1.10pm GMT
Hammond says, having run two big spending departments, he came to this job with fixed views on departmental spending.
He wants 1bn from savings to be refocused in priority areas.
1.09pm GMT
Hammond says public spending has a proportion of GDP has fallen to 40%.
He says the government has demonstrated that controlling spending is compatible with having world-class services.
1.08pm GMT
Hammond says 102 money from Libor fines will be distribute to service charities.
And money from the Tampon tax fund will go to women's charities.
1.06pm GMT
Hammond says he has deliberately avoided making this statement a list of specific projects.
But he can announce a plan to protect Wentworth Woodhouse near Rotherham, a model for the house in Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice. The government will provide a 7.5m grant to help preserve this piece of northern heritage, he says.
1.05pm GMT
Hammond says devolution remains at the government's approach. A new city deal for Stirling is being negotiated. This means every city in Scotland will be on course to have one.
City regions will get new borrowing powers, he says.
1.04pm GMT
Former Labour advisor Baron Wood tweets:
National debt averaged under 40% for 13 years of Labour government. Philip Hammond has just announced it will reach 90% in 2017-18 under him
1.03pm GMT
Hammond says for too long investment has been focused on London.
No other major economy has such a gap between the productivity of its capital, and its other cities.
1.02pm GMT
Hammond says this investment will provide the backbone to the government's industrial strategy.
He will double UK Export's financial capacity.
1.01pm GMT
Hammond says he has written to the National Infrastructure Commission asking for proposals for spending in the next decade.
The govenrment will commit to spending between 1% and 1.2% of GDP from 2020 on economic infrastructure.
12.59pm GMT
The UK needs world-class digital infrastructure.
He wants the UK to be a world-leader in 5G, he says.
12.58pm GMT
Hammond says the transport secretary will set out more details over the coming weeks.
12.57pm GMT
Hammond says there will be an extra 1.1bn invested in English transport networks, where small investments can often achieve big wins.
Some of this will go on rail, which Jeremy Corbyn will welcome, he says.
12.57pm GMT
So far: Hammond has predicted SLOWER growth, HIGHER inflation, WEAKER tax receipts, HIGHER borrowing. Gulp
12.56pm GMT
Hammond says for many the goal of home ownership remains out of reach.
The challenge of delivering housing where it is not affordable is not a new one. But this is an urgent challenge.
New 2.3bn Housing Infrastructure Fund for infrastructure for up to 100,000 new homes in high demand areas #AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/Bnp0LUYM5c
12.54pm GMT
Hammond says the government will form a new national productivity investment fund worth 23bn. It will focus on innovation and infrastructure.
Investment in R&D will rise by 2bn a year by 2020.
12.52pm GMT
He says in the autumn statement he will prioritise high-value investment in infrastructure.
He says the government's hard-won credibility on spending means it can fund this from extra borrowing, while funding everything else in the statement from taxation and spending cuts.
12.52pm GMT
Here are three fiscal rules which Hammond has just proposed:
Chancellor: Today I am publishing a new draft Charter for Budget Responsibility, with 3 new fiscal rules #AutumnStatement
Fiscal rule 1: borrowing should be below 2% by the end of this parliament #AutumnStatement
Fiscal rule 2: Public sector net debt as a share of GDP must be falling by the end of this parliament #AutumnStatement
Fiscal rule 3: Welfare spending must be within a cap, set by the government and monitored by OBR #AutumnStatement
12.50pm GMT
Hammond jokes about the representations he has received from Labour.
And he has received representations from other bodies, he says.
12.49pm GMT
Hammond announces the borrowing figures.
It will be 68.2bn this year, and 59bn next year, he says.
12.46pm GMT
Hammond says the govenrment does not expect to balance the budget by 2020.
It is publishing new rules.
12.44pm GMT
Hammond turns to the forecasts.
Since 2010 the OBR has done forecasts.
12.42pm GMT
12.41pm GMT
Hamond pays tribute to George Osborne.
He says he will be no better at proving rabbits from hats (Osborne's speciality) than Boris Johnson is at retrieve balls from the back of scrums (a joke about Johnson not becoming prime minister.)
12.40pm GMT
Hammond says the Brexit decision makes more urgent than ever the need to tackle the economy's weaknesses.
He says the government resolves to confront those challenges head on.
12.39pm GMT
Philip Hammond rises to make his statement.
(John Bercow points out he is also first secretary of state, as well as chancellor.)
12.36pm GMT
The Conservative Charlie Elphicke asks about fuel duty. Fuel prices go up like a rocket, when the oil price rises, but fall like a feather when it goes down, he says.
May says Elphicke should wait for the autumn statement.
12.34pm GMT
Asked to rule out any more referendums this parliament, May ruled out a second referendum on the EU. But she did not rule out a second referendum on Scottish independence (although she has in the past said she is not in favour of one).
12.32pm GMT
May says austerity is about living within our means. When we talk about support for the homeless, we must remember that taxpayers pay for that support, she says. And many of them are struggling.
12.27pm GMT
John Whittingdale, the Conservative former culture secretary, welcomes the expected 1bn for superfast broadband in the autumn statement. May says investment in this field is crucial.
12.26pm GMT
At least three former chancellors are in the Commons to watch Philip Hammond's debut fiscal statement:
Nigel Lawson watching from the peers' gallery. Ken Clarke and Osborne sitting next to each other. #AutumnStatement
12.26pm GMT
ITV's Robert Peston can see the funny side of #AutumnStatement.
There'll be loads of road schemes funded by @PHammondMP in #AutumnStatement. Obvs he misunderstood @theresa_may when she said sort out JAMs
12.25pm GMT
From Sky's Beth Rigby
The three #Brexiteers - Davis, Johnson, Fox - nowhere near Hammond for #PMQs & #AS. "No accident" texts one MP to me
12.23pm GMT
This is a sign that today's autumn statement might be less dramatic than usual:
I'm told the #AutumnStatement document, ordinarily 100+ pages, is just 64 pages long - half the length it was in 2013
12.22pm GMT
PMQs - Snap verdict: That exchange will be overshadowed by the autumn statement coming soon, but that's a shame for Jeremy Corbyn because that was one of his best ever PMQs performances. He sounded passionate and focused, and, although Theresa May sounded confident when defending measures to combat health tourism (in response to Corbyn's fifth question) her answers on the topic of social care sounded bland and unsatisfactory. One problem was that she did not engage emotionally with Corbyn's questions, and instead, sounding like an accountant, kept going on about government initiatives like the "Better Care Fund" which mean little to most listeners. Corbyn sounded a lot more authentic. Interestingly, he also at least twice defended the record of the Blair/Brown governments (on health spending, and on setting up the CQC), which is not something you always hear from Corbyn at PMQs. Doubtless some Labour MPs will assume that there is a link between that and the way this afternoon he scored a decisive win.
12.14pm GMT
Corbyn says the home in the Panorama programme was understaffed. He says poorly-paid staff should not be blamed. A warning from the CQC is not enough. Has the government considered the impact of getting patients to have to take their passports to hospitals to get care. Some 9.5m people do not have passports.
May says over the course of this parliament the government will be spending 500bn. She says there has been a problem with people turning up to access services but not paying for them.
12.10pm GMT
Corbyn say health spending trebled under Labour. And levels of satisfaction reached a record high. He says the number of people in hospital because of lack of care has gone up by one third.
May repeats what the government has done. She asks which government put the triple lock in place for pensioners.
12.07pm GMT
Jeremy Corbyn asks about the governments plans for the NHS, which he says hide cuts worth 22bn, according to the BMA. He says the BMA's Mark Porter says this is a mess. Where is he wrong?
Theresa May says savings will be reinvested within the NHS. The government is providing not just 8bn for the NHS, but 10bn.
12.02pm GMT
From the Spectator's Isabel Hardman
PMQs and Autumn Statement about to start in the Commons. All seats taken but it is hardly rammed.
12.01pm GMT
PMQs has started.
12.01pm GMT
Philip Hammond just entered the chamber to rather lusty cheers from the Tory benches
12.00pm GMT
This is from the Evening Standard's Kate Proctor.
Theresa May having a good laugh with @DavidDavisMP behind the speakers chair as she enters #PMQs perhaps a LOL at how well EU meetings went.
11.59am GMT
The devolved government in Belfast's Finance Minister has called for a "Niagra Falls stimulus" of extra infrastructure spending for Northern Ireland in the region.
Miirtin i Muilleoir, the Sinn Fein Minister, said the government needs to invest in infrastructure "to give the economy a jolt."
11.57am GMT
This is from the Sun's Steve Hawkes.
George Osborne sitting next to fellow Europhile Kenneth Clarke in the Chamber.
On his other side, Alan Mak
11.55am GMT
PMQs will be starting shortly. We will be covering the Theresa May/Jeremy Corbyn exchanges, and any autumn statement related questions, but not the whole thing. As the former Labour adviser Theo Bertram says, PMQs before the autumn statement is normally a bit of a non-event.
PMQs before a budget or Autumn statement is usually Gijon: it suits both sides not to play.https://t.co/p1SIvyxaLz
11.50am GMT
Here's that inflation graphic that @bbckamal just used on our #AutumnStatement programme pic.twitter.com/PZHGx0XXNK
11.45am GMT
One of the City's leading fund managers, Toby Nangle of Columbia Threadneedle, hopes that Philip Hammond will produce new measures to boost investment.
He tells Sky News that:
The real issue of concern for us is the investment side. With Brexit looming over, the surveys have been pointing down. So anything he can do on that side would be quite helpful.
A shift away from targeting actual budget surpluses to primary surpluses is a very sensible thing that most people will support.
It facilitates investment - and that investment is really what we need as a country.
11.43am GMT
Here is ITV's political editor, Robert Peston, on the autumn statement.
If this was a normal government, #AutumnStatement surprise would be more cash for social care & health. Not sure this is a normal government
11.40am GMT
Theresa May has welcomed Philip Hammond's "prudent" approach to running Britain's economy as he prepares to deliver his first autumn statement, reviving a favourite catchphrase of Gordon Brown's.
Hammond set out his plans for his first set-piece parliamentary event as chancellor to his fellow ministers at Wednesday morning's cabinet meeting.
11.28am GMT
This is what Theresa May told the cabinet about the autumn statement, according to Number 10.
This is an autumn statement which will deliver on the government's commitment to build an economy which works for everyone and sets the economy on the right path for the long term.
This is a balanced and prudent autumn statement which will make clear Britain is open for business and the government is on the side of ordinary working people struggling to make ends meet.
11.22am GMT
That really was a muted appearance by Philip Hammond on Downing Street; he looked more like a man heading to the shops for some milk than a chancellor preparing to update the nation on its finances....
Sky News' Faisal Islam hoped for a bit more...
Extraordinarily low key exit from number 11 by the Chancellor.
11.17am GMT
Here is another profile of Philip Hammond, from Newsnight's Nicholas Watt.
Who is the real Philip Hammond? https://t.co/17Lavv0yN1 via @BBCNews
From @nicholaswatt on Hammond's relations with Brexiteers pic.twitter.com/L2OlyMWGLv
11.14am GMT
Philip Hammond has just emerged from Number 11 Downing Street, clutching a copy of autumn statement.
But he's not hanging around for photos -- the chancellor heads straight to his ministerial limo for the short drive to the House of Commons.
11.10am GMT
The chancellor tweets....
My #AutumnStatement today is focused on preparing & supporting the economy as we begin writing a new chapter in our country's history
11.06am GMT
As well as reading your comments below the line we'd like to hear from readers who will be affected by the chancellor's announcements today via a dedicated callout.
Related: Tell us how you might be affected by Philip Hammond's autumn statement
10.59am GMT
Torsten Bell, director of the Resolution Foundation, has been tweeting about the Treasury's decision to change the taper rates to ameliorate the impact of universal credit cuts.
All support for just managing families is to be welcomed but after this small tweak they will still be the big losers over next few years https://t.co/95Yiogiln7
Big picture: Universal Credit cuts will hit family budgets by many billions of s - 2% taper reduction only gives back a few hundred million
Here's the family impacts - single parents still lose up to 2800 from work allowan