Future life expectancy will break 90 year barrier for women in South Korea by 2030 but Asian American Women already past this in several US states
by noreply@blogger.com (brian wang) from NextBigFuture.com on (#2DH6H)
Average life expectancy is set to increase in many countries by 2030 - and will exceed 90 years in South Korea, according to new research. The gains will be mainly from improved life expectancy for those over 65. There are no longer many improvements possible from the prevention of early deaths in the developed world.
The study, led by scientists from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization, analysed long-term data on mortality and longevity trends to predict how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialised countries by 2030.
Nations in the study included both high-income countries, such as the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, and emerging economies such as Poland, Mexico and the Czech Republic.
The study, published in The Lancet and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, revealed all nations in the study can expect to see an increase in life expectancy by 2030.
The results also found that South Koreans may have the highest life expectancy in the world in 2030.
The team calculated life expectancy at birth, and predicted a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will expect to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for South Korean men will be 84.1 years.
The researchers also calculated how long a 65-year-old person may expect to live in 2030. The results revealed that the average 65-year-old woman in South Korea in 2030 may live an additional 27.5 years.
The Lancet -Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble
Asian american women in several US states already have life expectancy beyond 90
Life Expectancy varies greatly in the USA by race, gender, wealth and state
In 2009, the average life expectancy of black men and women in the United States was just 75. That's roughly the same as the average life expectancy of white men and women in 1979 - 30 years earlier. The average life expectancy of black men in 2009 was just 71 (compared to 76 for white men).
While such a significant gap is troubling, the 2009 black/white life expectancy gap was actually at an all-time low of 4 years. In 1950, that gap was almost twice as large.
Black Americans may be worse off than white Americans, but Black Americans who have not completed high school lag even further behind.
The researchers found that white men with 16 or more years of schooling can expect to live an average of 14 years longer than black men with fewer than 12 years of education.(For white and black women with the same educational differences, that gap was 10 years.)
"Higher death rates due to heart disease, cancer, homicide, diabetes, and perinatal conditions" accounted for 60 percent of the gap, the report noted. The report goes on to say that the gap would have been even larger "if not for the lower death rates for the black population for suicide, unintentional injuries, and chronic lower respiratory diseases."
Pinpointing the Sources of the Asian Mortality Advantage in the United States
Asian-Americans outlive whites by an average of nearly 8 years. By determining the sources of the Asian mortality advantage, we can pinpoint where there is the greatest potential for raising the life expectancy of whites and other groups in the United States.
Nearly 90% of the Asian-white life expectancy gap is attributable to the fact that Asians tend to outlive whites regardless of the cause of death. The causes that contribute the most to the gap are heart disease (24%) and cancers (18%). Men contribute somewhat more to the gap than women do (55% versus 45%), primarily because Asian-white differences in mortality are greater among men than among women with respect to suicide, traffic accidents, and accidental poisoning.
Several explanations have been given for the surprisingly high life expectancy of Asians in the United States. One is the "healthy migrant" hypothesis that Asians constitute a non-randomly selected population of unusually healthy individuals as over two-thirds of Asian-Americans were foreign born, compared to less than 4% of non-Hispanic whites. According to the healthy migrant hypothesis, Asian migrants should be healthier and experience longer longevity than their U.S.-born counterparts.
The life expectancy of Asians in the United States is higher than in any Asian country, which suggests that some health selection is likely at play.
A second possibility is based on the "salmon-bias effect" which occurs when foreign-born individuals go back to their home country when their health deteriorates, to spend the last years of their lives. This process would cause an underestimation of the deaths among the Asians, as deaths occurring abroad would not be accounted for. However, studies find little support for a significant salmon bias effect for Asians.
Other explanations focus on the health behaviors and environments of Asian Americans. Cultural factors such as healthier traditional cooking may work as protective factors for Asians to buffer some negative health behaviors found in the United States. Asians also have the lowest BMI, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking rate of all major racial or ethnic group in the United States. Furthermore, the relatively high socioeconomic status of Asians may provide greater access to favorable health environments. In addition to a longer life expectancy, Asian Americans also experience more favorable health outcomes, such as lower rates of heart disease, asthma, cancer - especially among the foreign born. On the other hand, self-rated health is on average lower among Asians than for whites after adjusting for a series of control variables, but this might be due to lack of measurement invariance of the self-rated health scale across racial groups
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The study, led by scientists from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization, analysed long-term data on mortality and longevity trends to predict how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialised countries by 2030.
Nations in the study included both high-income countries, such as the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, and emerging economies such as Poland, Mexico and the Czech Republic.
The study, published in The Lancet and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, revealed all nations in the study can expect to see an increase in life expectancy by 2030.
The results also found that South Koreans may have the highest life expectancy in the world in 2030.
The team calculated life expectancy at birth, and predicted a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will expect to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for South Korean men will be 84.1 years.
The researchers also calculated how long a 65-year-old person may expect to live in 2030. The results revealed that the average 65-year-old woman in South Korea in 2030 may live an additional 27.5 years.
The Lancet -Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble
Asian american women in several US states already have life expectancy beyond 90
Life Expectancy varies greatly in the USA by race, gender, wealth and state
In 2009, the average life expectancy of black men and women in the United States was just 75. That's roughly the same as the average life expectancy of white men and women in 1979 - 30 years earlier. The average life expectancy of black men in 2009 was just 71 (compared to 76 for white men).
While such a significant gap is troubling, the 2009 black/white life expectancy gap was actually at an all-time low of 4 years. In 1950, that gap was almost twice as large.
Black Americans may be worse off than white Americans, but Black Americans who have not completed high school lag even further behind.
The researchers found that white men with 16 or more years of schooling can expect to live an average of 14 years longer than black men with fewer than 12 years of education.(For white and black women with the same educational differences, that gap was 10 years.)
"Higher death rates due to heart disease, cancer, homicide, diabetes, and perinatal conditions" accounted for 60 percent of the gap, the report noted. The report goes on to say that the gap would have been even larger "if not for the lower death rates for the black population for suicide, unintentional injuries, and chronic lower respiratory diseases."
Pinpointing the Sources of the Asian Mortality Advantage in the United States
Asian-Americans outlive whites by an average of nearly 8 years. By determining the sources of the Asian mortality advantage, we can pinpoint where there is the greatest potential for raising the life expectancy of whites and other groups in the United States.
Nearly 90% of the Asian-white life expectancy gap is attributable to the fact that Asians tend to outlive whites regardless of the cause of death. The causes that contribute the most to the gap are heart disease (24%) and cancers (18%). Men contribute somewhat more to the gap than women do (55% versus 45%), primarily because Asian-white differences in mortality are greater among men than among women with respect to suicide, traffic accidents, and accidental poisoning.
Several explanations have been given for the surprisingly high life expectancy of Asians in the United States. One is the "healthy migrant" hypothesis that Asians constitute a non-randomly selected population of unusually healthy individuals as over two-thirds of Asian-Americans were foreign born, compared to less than 4% of non-Hispanic whites. According to the healthy migrant hypothesis, Asian migrants should be healthier and experience longer longevity than their U.S.-born counterparts.
The life expectancy of Asians in the United States is higher than in any Asian country, which suggests that some health selection is likely at play.
A second possibility is based on the "salmon-bias effect" which occurs when foreign-born individuals go back to their home country when their health deteriorates, to spend the last years of their lives. This process would cause an underestimation of the deaths among the Asians, as deaths occurring abroad would not be accounted for. However, studies find little support for a significant salmon bias effect for Asians.
Other explanations focus on the health behaviors and environments of Asian Americans. Cultural factors such as healthier traditional cooking may work as protective factors for Asians to buffer some negative health behaviors found in the United States. Asians also have the lowest BMI, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking rate of all major racial or ethnic group in the United States. Furthermore, the relatively high socioeconomic status of Asians may provide greater access to favorable health environments. In addition to a longer life expectancy, Asian Americans also experience more favorable health outcomes, such as lower rates of heart disease, asthma, cancer - especially among the foreign born. On the other hand, self-rated health is on average lower among Asians than for whites after adjusting for a series of control variables, but this might be due to lack of measurement invariance of the self-rated health scale across racial groups
Read more