China's low fertility rate will cause policies to shift and IVF to boom to millions per year and then mass embryo selection
by noreply@blogger.com (brian wang) from NextBigFuture.com on (#2GRQ8)
Statistics released by the China Population Association (CPA) in 2013 revealed that the infertile population of the country has surpassed 40 million, making up 12.5 percent of the total population of childbearing age.
Some forecast that the Chinese baby boom by going to a full two child policy will fade after pent up demand is satisfied. Then the aging out of women of child bearing age will prevent policy from effecting birthrates.
IVF rates of 2000 to 3000 per million exist in developed countries. China was at 30,000 per year in 2013 but there has been an IVF boom with the increased wealth and with the two child policy.
IVF rates are still increasing worldwide and costs for IVF procedures are going down. There is also the freezing of eggs and embryos by younger women who would have eggs that would have higher success rates.
The success rate of IVF procedures in Thailand is around 10 percent higher than that in China, the Guangzhou Daily reported.
The success rate could reach 75 percent for female clients aged between 25 and 28. Although the rate drops over time, it is still higher than other Asian countries, medical staff at Jatanin institute were quoted as saying by Xinhua.
Meanwhile, IVF fees in Thailand are a mere between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan each time - much less than in the West. IVF fees can reach 160,000 yuan in the US.
The size of the upper middle class in urban settings was 14% of the overall urban population in 2012. Lower cost IVF procedures and a larger middle class could enable 50-60% of infertile population to afford IVF. A new Invitro fertilization method lowers the cost by 30 times to $250 (1700 yuan).
A more recent Boston Consulting Group estimate is that the number of upper middle-class and affluent households is forecast to double to 100 million by 2020. That will account for 30 percent of all urban households, compared to 17 percent today and 7 percent in 2010, according to BCG data. Upper middle-class households have an annual disposable income of between roughly $24,000 and $46,000.
Child benefits have also been shown to affect fertility rates. In 1988 Quebec introduced the Allowance for Newborn Children, which paid up to C$8,000 to families after the birth of a child. The incentive was large and rose with family size. Because the other provinces did not have similar policies, the study could compare people eligible for
the benefit in Quebec with a control group of Canadians outside Quebec with similar characteristics who were not eligible for payments. Fertility rose an average of 12% among those eligible for the program and rose to 25% for those eligible for the maximum benefit.
Policies that change the cost of having an additional child have also been shown to have a causal effect on childbearing. Israel changed its child subsidy over 1999-2005, raising and lowering it and adjusting it according to the number of children.
Nextbigfuture predicts the following for China, China fertility policy, birthrates and IVF usage.
- China will lift all child restrictions within 5 years
- China will introduce subsidies or coverage for IVF within 8 years
- China will introduce bonuses and financial incentives for children and for reducing childbearing costs within ten years
China will use these policies to increase the overall level of annual births to over 20 million per year from about 17 million per year now.
Molecular Psychiatry - Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium
General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health- and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N=53"949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32.
The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e.=5%) and 28% (s.e.=7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, ~1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N=5487; P=1.5 i- 10a'17). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.
Stephen Hsu posted on the main genetic findings on intelligence. Stephen Hsu has written extensively on the genetic basis on intelligence and the near future of embryo selection. Stephen advises BGI the main genomics company of China.
There was a review of five years of genome-wide association studies in 2011.
Read more
Some forecast that the Chinese baby boom by going to a full two child policy will fade after pent up demand is satisfied. Then the aging out of women of child bearing age will prevent policy from effecting birthrates.
IVF rates of 2000 to 3000 per million exist in developed countries. China was at 30,000 per year in 2013 but there has been an IVF boom with the increased wealth and with the two child policy.
IVF rates are still increasing worldwide and costs for IVF procedures are going down. There is also the freezing of eggs and embryos by younger women who would have eggs that would have higher success rates.
The success rate of IVF procedures in Thailand is around 10 percent higher than that in China, the Guangzhou Daily reported.
The success rate could reach 75 percent for female clients aged between 25 and 28. Although the rate drops over time, it is still higher than other Asian countries, medical staff at Jatanin institute were quoted as saying by Xinhua.
Meanwhile, IVF fees in Thailand are a mere between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan each time - much less than in the West. IVF fees can reach 160,000 yuan in the US.
The size of the upper middle class in urban settings was 14% of the overall urban population in 2012. Lower cost IVF procedures and a larger middle class could enable 50-60% of infertile population to afford IVF. A new Invitro fertilization method lowers the cost by 30 times to $250 (1700 yuan).
A more recent Boston Consulting Group estimate is that the number of upper middle-class and affluent households is forecast to double to 100 million by 2020. That will account for 30 percent of all urban households, compared to 17 percent today and 7 percent in 2010, according to BCG data. Upper middle-class households have an annual disposable income of between roughly $24,000 and $46,000.
Child benefits have also been shown to affect fertility rates. In 1988 Quebec introduced the Allowance for Newborn Children, which paid up to C$8,000 to families after the birth of a child. The incentive was large and rose with family size. Because the other provinces did not have similar policies, the study could compare people eligible for
the benefit in Quebec with a control group of Canadians outside Quebec with similar characteristics who were not eligible for payments. Fertility rose an average of 12% among those eligible for the program and rose to 25% for those eligible for the maximum benefit.
Policies that change the cost of having an additional child have also been shown to have a causal effect on childbearing. Israel changed its child subsidy over 1999-2005, raising and lowering it and adjusting it according to the number of children.
Nextbigfuture predicts the following for China, China fertility policy, birthrates and IVF usage.
- China will lift all child restrictions within 5 years
- China will introduce subsidies or coverage for IVF within 8 years
- China will introduce bonuses and financial incentives for children and for reducing childbearing costs within ten years
China will use these policies to increase the overall level of annual births to over 20 million per year from about 17 million per year now.
Molecular Psychiatry - Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium
General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health- and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N=53"949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32.
The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e.=5%) and 28% (s.e.=7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, ~1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N=5487; P=1.5 i- 10a'17). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.
Stephen Hsu posted on the main genetic findings on intelligence. Stephen Hsu has written extensively on the genetic basis on intelligence and the near future of embryo selection. Stephen advises BGI the main genomics company of China.
There was a review of five years of genome-wide association studies in 2011.
Read more