UK retail sales surge as consumers shrug off Brexit fears - as it happened

Retail sales rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.4% in February as UK consumers took Brexit and rising inflation in their stride

• Pound rises against the dollar and as retail sales surge
• Global markets stabilise as investors await crucial US healthcare vote

3.12pm GMT

Markets on both sides of the Atlantic are trading slightly higher as investors await developments on the Republicans' crucial healthcare bill - which may or may not be put to the vote today.

Stronger-than-expected data in the UK and the US has managed to keep sentiment broadly positive:

2.56pm GMT

The short-term lettings industry is attempting to clean-up its reputation with the creation of a new trade body.

We understand there are concerns but the reality is that short-term lettings offer an opportunity for people to earn an extra source of income from their most important assets.

Homeowners and families who have struggled through the financial crisis have the chance to make a little extra money when they are away. We will also set our industry code of conduct to raise the bar for our members and new market entrants to ensure the standards that we have all worked so hard to make are the industry norm.

2.32pm GMT

Unite, Britain's largest union, has renewed its calls for access to the single market after Brexit. It follows the strong car manufacturing figures for February.

Len McCluskey, general secretary, said:

These astonishingly good figures clearly demonstrate that the automotive industry is the 'jewel in the crown' of British manufacturing which the prime minister needs to vigorously fight for in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations.

Unite's red line for the car industry is access to the European single market with no tariffs and a frictionless supply chain through membership of the customs union.

2.20pm GMT

New us home sales rose by 6.1% to 592,000 in February, the Commerce Department said. It was the highest level since July 2016.

The figure for January was also revised up to 558,000 from an earlier estimate of 555,000.

1.52pm GMT

An update on Greece now, where it is hoped record tourism will provide a boost to the crisis-hit economy. The Guardian's Helena Smith reports:

Greece's largest carrier, Aegean Airlines, has reported a rise in passenger numbers despite a drop in profits. The record numbers visiting Greece were reflected in the airline's figures, which showed that passengers grew 7% in 2016 to 12.5 million.

1.34pm GMT

Trading is underway in the US and markets subdued ahead of the crucial vote on Trump's controversial healthcare bill.

1.28pm GMT

As we wait for the Wall Street bell to go, here are the latest scores across Europe:

1.18pm GMT

US markets are expected to open slightly lower:

US Opening Calls:#DOW 20634 -0.15%#SPX 2346 -0.07%#NASDAQ 5362 -0.10%#IGOpeningCall

1.16pm GMT

Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, has been speaking at a Fed event in Washington, DC.

Research presented over the next two days makes a compelling case that there is a need to also think longer term about how to prepare people for success in the labor market. This research underscores the value of starting young to develop basic work habits and skills, like literacy, numeracy, and interpersonal and organizational skills.

These habits and skills help prepare people for work, help them enter the labor market sooner, meet with more success over time, and be in a position to develop the more specialized skills and obtain the academic credentials that are strongly correlated with higher and steadier earnings.

Our young people are the future, and we all want them to have the support they need for successful and fulfilling lives. As a central banker, I recognize the benefits to the broader economy when more people are better prepared for work and for managing their finances. In short, ensuring that all of our kids have "strong foundations" will help build a similarly strong foundation for the U.S. economy.

12.52pm GMT

New US jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week.

The US Labor Department said initial claims were 258,000 in the week ending 18 March, following 243,000 claims a week earlier (revised up from 241,000).

#UnitedStates #IJC Initial Jobless Claims at 258K https://t.co/7jKKbGM762 pic.twitter.com/7ciejLwzl5

12.43pm GMT

Ben Broadbent, the Bank of England's deputy governor for monetary policy, has given a speech in London on 'Brexit and the pound'.

The vote to leave the EU led to a big drop in sterling's exchange rate. One consequence is a rise in import prices and a squeeze on households' real income. We may already be seeing the impact of that squeeze on retail spending, which in real terms fell quite sharply around the turn of the year.

The result - higher prices and profits but unchanged rules and costs - represents something of a sweet spot for exporters and businesses that compete with imports.

12.18pm GMT

No sign yet of that much feared slowdown in British car manufacturing following the Brexit vote.

Today's figures illustrate the continuing global popularity of British-built vehicles and the export-led nature of the industry.

With eight out of every 10 cars we produce destined for international markets - and half of those for customers in the EU - we must avoid barriers to trade, whether tariff, customs or other regulatory obstacles, at all costs. To do otherwise would damage our competitiveness and threaten the continued success of UK automotive manufacturing."

11.51am GMT

Returning to the official retail sales for February, the strong monthly figure masks the underlying weakness revealed by the broader three-month trend.

Over the three months, retail sales volumes fell 1.4%, the biggest drop since March 2010. The ONS suggested that higher fuel prices made drivers less willing to fill-up their tanks over the period.

11.31am GMT

The pound is just about holding on to one-month highs above $1.25:

11.15am GMT

The CBI has just published its own survey of the retail sector, which is also slightly ahead of expectations.

Strength in the retail sector continued into March according to the business lobby group's distributive trades survey.

It's encouraging to see that sales volumes growth is holding up and expectations have strengthened.

However, retailers continue to be squeezed by rising cost pressures on the one hand, and intense competition on the other, which will limit their ability to raise prices. With household spending growth set to slow as inflation rises, retailers seem likely to remain under pressure through this year.

10.50am GMT

Read our full story on the bumper retail sales figures for February:

Related: UK retail sales shrug off Brexit fears with February rise

10.43am GMT

The surprisingly sharp rise in retail sales suggests UK consumers were not deterred from spending by higher shop prices in February. But this could change, economists are warning.

With shoppers facing a combination of still-subdued pay growth and rising inflation, Q1's likely weak performance may be a harbinger for 2017 as a whole.

Annual shop price inflation increased to 2.8% from 1.9% in January, a 60-month high. How the year pans out will depend heavily upon consumers' willingness to draw on savings or take on more debt. While these sources may deliver some mitigation to squeezed spending power, last year's retail boom looks set to become an increasingly distant memory."

UK retail sales showed the first upwards surprise for 3 months. Will it last? With inflation getting higher and higher, the fundamentals would suggest not - i.e. the squeeze on disposable income is intensifying. The downward glide path should resume in the coming months.

10.23am GMT

Here is how Asian markets ended the day, courtesy of traders at spread-betting firm IG:

APAC Closing Prices:#ASX 5707.95 +0.41%#NIKKEI 19085.31 +0.23%#HSI 24327.7 +0.03%#HSHARES 10487.45 +0.29%#CSI300 3462.04 +0.35%

10.18am GMT

The stronger-than-expected retail sales have helped to push the pound higher against the dollar and the euro.

Retail sales data was very strong this morning and sterling has rallied once again. It comes hot off the back of the headline inflation earlier in the week, with the hawkish MPC statement and rate vote results still resonating.

It's likely to make for an even more aggressive BoE statement next month, with sterling up through 1.25 as a result. This recent combination of market data will likely support the pound through to the end of the week and perhaps into next. 1.26 could well be in sight.

9.40am GMT

Figures just out show stronger than expected retail sales in February.

Sales jumped 1.4%, signalling consumer resilience despite rising inflation and weak wage growth. Economists had forecast far weaker growth of 0.4%.

February's retail sales figures show fairly strong growth, though the underlying three-month picture shows falling sales as February's figures follow two consecutive months of decline in December and January.

The monthly growth in February is seen across all store types. The underlying trend suggests that rising petrol prices in particular have had a negative effect on the overall quantity of goods bought over the last three months.

9.25am GMT

Over in France, optimism among firms in the industrial sector fell to a four-month low in March, in a possible sign that uncertainty surrounding the presidential election is starting to weigh on confidence.

The business climate index for the industrial sector, published by Insee, fell to 104 points in March from 107 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to stay at 107.

9.14am GMT

European markets are in a subdued mood this morning as investors await the crucial US vote on the healthcare bill which seeks to overturn Obamacare.

With many opposed to the bill in its current form, investors are concerned that should Trump lose the vote, his growth-boosting policy promises might not materialse.

The markets got off to an understandably quiet start this Thursday, the European indices gently slipping into the red after the bell.

There are a couple of reasons why investors may be sitting on their hands this morning. Firstly, the tragedy in Westminster on Wednesday is the kind of event that casts the cold light of perspective on the stock market's frivolities.

8.58am GMT

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, says that investors knew what was coming from the retailer in the form of the first profit drop in eight years.

Not a pretty set of figures from Next but no worse than expected after warning on profits in January. Following that dire Christmas trading update investors were prepared for this and the retailer remains extremely cautious about the year ahead.

It was the first drop in annual profits in 8 years but investors seem to be reassured that it's taking steps to turn things around with a focus on core products.

8.46am GMT

Next is at the top of the FTSE 100 leader board this morning, despite reporting its first annual profits fall in eight years.

The year ahead looks like it will be tough with a combination of economic, cyclical and internal factors working against us.

In focussing so much energy on changing our buying culture, processes and adopting exciting new trends, we have omitted some of our best-selling, heartland product from our ranges. These are the easy to wear styles that can be delivered in large volumes and great prices across several colours.

Corrective action is relatively straightforward and began in late January. We believe that some of these changes will begin to be reflected in our Summer ranges from May onwards, but we will not have our ranges where we want them until the Autumn season.

8.18am GMT

Trading is Europe is underway and investors are in following Asia and Wall Street by taking a bit of a breather.

The FTSE 100 is down 13 points or 0.2% at 7,312.

8.04am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Asian markets are subdued after Wall Street stabilised on Wednesday. Fears that President Trump will not be able to deliver on his growth boosting policy pledges have not gone away, but investors appear to be taking a breather before today's crucial vote on the Republican healthcare bill in the US.

US Closing Prices:#DOW 20661.3 -0.03%#SPX 2348.45 +0.19%#NDX 5367.55 +0.66%#VIX 12.81 +2.73%

Related: Donald Trump makes last-ditch pitch to Republicans to back healthcare bill