Markets cautious after crucial US healthcare vote delayed - as it happened

Trump issued an ultimatum after the vote was postponed on his bill to replace Obamacare, raising fears about his ability to push through other growth-boosting reforms

• Congress plans Friday vote as Trump gives ultimatum to Republicans
• EC president Juncker: Brexit is a failure and a tragedy
• Pound could fall as low as $1.06, Deutsche Bank warns
• Brexit watch: squeeze on living standards begins

3.05pm GMT

Before we close up for the day, let's take a look at the markets.

Wall Street is holding on to earlier gains while Europe is more of a mixed picture.

2.33pm GMT

Data published earlier showed a bigger-than-expected rise in durable goods orders in February.

Orders rose 1.7%, better than the 1.2% increase forecast by economists but a slowdown compared with January, when they were up 2.3%.

The 1.7% monthly rise in headline durable goods orders in February was helped by another strong rise in commercial aircraft orders, but the improvement in underlying orders provides further evidence that business equipment investment has continued to recover in the first quarter.

...despite the apparent weakness of real consumption, we still think that first-quarter GDP growth was probably close to 2% annualised.

2.23pm GMT

US firms reported the weakest rate of output growth in six months in March according to Markit's flash PMI index covering manufacturing and services.

The headline index slipped to 53.2 from 54.12 in February, following a slowdown in growth in both services and manufacturing. Anything above 50 signals growth.

The US economy shifted down a gear in March. A slowing in the pace of growth signalled by the PMI surveys for a second straight month suggests that the economy is struggling to sustain momentum.

The survey readings are consistent with annualised GDP growth of 1.7% in the first quarter, down from 1.9% in the final quarter of last year.

1.36pm GMT

Trading is underway and markets are slightly up ahead of the crucial vote on Trump's controversial healthcare bill.

After seven horrible years of ObamaCare (skyrocketing premiums & deductibles, bad healthcare), this is finally your chance for a great plan!

1.01pm GMT

As final preparations are underway for the EU's 60th birthday party in Rome on Saturday, it's not just Brexit that threatens to overshadow celebrations.

For the past seven years Greece has been in economic adjustment programs in the name of which exceptions have been imposed from a whole list of achievements in our common European project ". we should know openly, officially and clearly if we also have the right to have access to these gains.

We are at a critical moment because these days Greece is on the front line of a battle that concerns all of Europe. We are fighting to restore collective work agreements in our country, to end the exemption status now and for once and for all in the future.

Related: EU's anniversary declaration to warn of dangers of leaving

12.30pm GMT

The troubled Co-operative Bank says it has received a number of serious approaches from potential buyers after putting itself up for sale in February in a bid to raise cash.

In a bid to reassure its 4 million customers and creditors, the bank issued a statement earlier today:

A number of credible strategic and financial parties have expressed interest in the sale process and are currently evaluating information on the bank.

Related: Co-operative Bank says it has interest of several credible buyers

11.54am GMT

The pound could fall by another 15% against the dollar and the euro this year according to Deutsche Bank.

We do not see sterling (currently) fully pricing a hard Brexit outcome. Combined with limited adjustment in the UK's current account deficit and slowing growth, we see further downside, and forecast $1.06 in by year-end.

11.39am GMT

The Guardian's latest monthly analysis shows that the squeeze in UK living standards is on.

The Brexit vote's blow to the pound is stoking inflation while pay packets are shrinking in real terms.

As Theresa May prepares to trigger article 50 next week, kicking off the formal process of the UK leaving the EU, the economy continues to defy the doomsayers who predicted a sudden downturn after the referendum. But signs of a slowdown are now emerging as higher prices put pressure on companies and consumers alike.

Nine months on from the referendum, the Guardian's monthly tracker of economic news shows inflation is at its highest level for more than three years, retail sales have lost momentum and pay growth has slowed significantly despite the lowest unemployment rate for more than a decade.

Related: Brexit economy: UK faces squeeze on living standards

11.20am GMT

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Markit, said the BBA report reflected the weaker backdrop facing consumers.

There are signs of an underlying slowdown in unsecured consumer borrowing from the peak levels seen around last October, which ties in with the impression that consumers are becoming more cautious as their purchasing power is increasingly diluted by rising inflation.

It looks inevitable that the fundamentals for consumers will progressively weaken over the coming months with inflation rising markedly due to the weakened pound and companies likely increasingly looking to hold down pay to limit their total costs.

11.10am GMT

Britain's high street banks approved 42,613 mortgages for house purchase (excluding remortgages) in February, which was a three-month low.

10.41am GMT

The latest comments from a Bank of England policymaker are helping to drive the pound lower this morning.

If it turns out the pass through of exchange rate to inflation is faster than our baseline estimate, that would mean inflation might go higher to 3 or even 3.5%.

But it would also mean it would come down faster afterwards. It is not at all obvious what the impact for monetary policy would be and it might not have one.

Related: UK unemployment falls to joint lowest rate since 1975 but wages stall

10.20am GMT

The pound has not managed to hold on to gains made yesterday, when it was boosted by a stronger-than-expected jump in February retail sales.

9.50am GMT

Reaction to the stronger-than-expected eurozone data is coming in.

Bert Colijn, a senior eurozone economist at ING:

While political uncertainty in the eurozone itself and among its larger trade partners continues to be high, sentiment among eurozone businesses about activity in the coming year continues to improve.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic though, as businesses indicate continued increases in new orders, the strongest output growth in near six years and employment is growing at a pace not seen for almost a decade. The acceleration of job growth will underpin improvements in domestic demand in the months ahead, which is in line with this month's strong consumer confidence figures.

After a strong rise in March the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy might have had its strongest quarter in two years in Q1.

In all then, some encouraging news for the region. But while the output prices index increased further, there is still slack in the labour market and wage growth is set to remain subdued. As such, policymakers at the European Central Bank are unlikely to be convinced that recent signs of a pick-up in activity will translate into sustained upward pressure on inflation.

9.29am GMT

The eurozone economy grew at the fastest rate in almost six years in March according to a survey of firms across the whole region.

The flash PMI index measuring services and manufacturing output rose to 56.7 from 56 in February, taking it to the highest level since April 2011. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a small dip in the index, to 55.8 (where anything above 50 signals growth).

The acceleration in growth towards the end of the quarter, as well as improving trends in new business and an increased appetite to hire, suggest that strong growth momentum will be sustained into the second quarter.

9.11am GMT

Here are the specific numbers for those stronger-than-expected German and French PMIs.

(Anything above 50 indicates growth.)

8.54am GMT

Closely-watched surveys from Germany and France suggest Europe's two largest economies enjoyed a strong March.

Growth accelerated in the manufacturing and services sectors in both countries compared with February according to the Markit PMI surveys, beating economists' expectations.

The March flash PMI results rounded off a strong first quarter for the Germany economy, which enters the spring growing at the fastest rate in nearly six years. The PMI data strongly suggest that economic growth will accelerate in the first quarter.

These numbers paint a rosy picture of the French private sector, as we start to see the effect of various governmental reforms enacted over the last few years. Meanwhile, a high level of business optimism continues to have a positive influence on firms hiring decisions, and can be attributed to a widespread expectation of pro-business policies after May's presidential elections.

8.30am GMT

Caution on Wall Street last night has carried through to Europe this morning as a subdued trading session gets underway.

Here are the early scores:

8.04am GMT

Here's our full story on Trump's ultimatum:

Related: House plans Friday healthcare vote as Trump gives ultimatum to Republicans

8.03am GMT

Wall Street closed down last down but it could have been a lot worse after Trump had to admit defeat (for the time being at least) on the US healthcare bill, which seeks to replace Obamacare.

Trump took gamble on Thursday by issuing an ultimatum: pass the bill in its current form or we're sticking with Obamacare.

We are taking action to #RepealANDReplace #Obamacare! Contact your Rep & tell them you support #AHCA. #PassTheBill https://t.co/opzrXJigGA pic.twitter.com/C7snoRafPI

7.40am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Another day, another wait to see if Donald Trump's healthcare bill will pass muster after delays on Thursday. Markets are nervous that a failure could dent Trump's tax and spending plans, which have been boosting share values ever since the election. But it may not be that simple. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said:

A validation would ... grant Trump the credibility on his ability to pass through his fiscal policies, including tax reforms and large infrastructure spending. An eventual failure could let down investors, yet it is worth noting that the major market focus is still on the US' fiscal plans and the Trump administration could carry on with its expansive fiscal plans regardless of a disappointment on the health-care bill.

We get to see whether the recent economic recovery in France and Germany has maintained its traction from January and February, with the latest flash PMI's for March in the manufacturing and services sectors.

France in particular saw a strong performance in the services sector in February, and this looks like it could well be sustained in March with only a slight slowdown expected to 56.2 from 56.4. Manufacturing remains a slight laggard, but is still expected to come in at 52.4.

Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7345 up 4
$DAX 12047 up 8
$CAC 5027 down 6$IBEX 10315 down 10$MIB 20147 down 20