Falling real pay shows the British economy is still struggling | Larry Elliott

The decline in real pay since the financial crisis gives the lie to the Tories' election claims of sound economic management

It is a truth universally acknowledged that a prime minister in possession of a strong economy wins elections. Governments lose when the country has been put through the wringer, as in 2010, and win when everything's going well, as it is now.

There's only one thing wrong with this theory. The economy is not booming - it's struggling. The problems that the Conservatives inherited as part of a coalition in 2010 have not been eradicated. In many cases, they have got worse. Policy mistakes have gone unpunished. Yet the only logical conclusion from last week's local elections is that the Conservatives are on course for a thumping victory in the big one next month.