At least one 72 year old japanese woman alive now will live to 2070 and reach 125 years of age
A study in the journal nature makes the case for maximum human lifespan increasing to 125 without radical life extension. Some previous work by other researchers argue that there is a limit to human lifespan of around 115 years, with their main rationale being that the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) in Japan, France, the United Kingdom.
It is 53 years until years until 2070. Researchers looked at how many 72 year old Japanese women there are now and used age specific actuarial model to forecast that at least one of those women should be alive in 2070.
The new work estimate the maximum age that will be reached by Japanese women before 2070 based on data on the current age structure of older Japanese women, an estimation of the death probabilities at older ages and a projection of future changes in the death probabilities. For he analysis they use population data and unsmoothed mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) obtained on October 11, 2016. To estimate death probabilities for ages beyond 109 and for projecting future age-specific death probabilities, they used the CoDe 2.0 model.
There is an 8 page supplement to the acticle.
a, The solid black line shows the average observed death probabilities for the years 2012-2014 for ages 70-109. The dashed blue line shows the fit of the Gompertz model for ages 70-100. Using the estimated parameters of the Gompertz model, the death probabilities are projected for ages 101-109. The dashed red line shows the fit and projection of the logistic-type function used in the CoDe 2.0 model. b, The solid black line shows the changes in the average observed values of the death probabilities between successive ages. The dashed blue line shows that the Gompertz model projects an acceleration of the increase in the death probabilities. The dashed red line shows that the logistic-type model used in the CoDe 2.0 model describes the levelling off of the increase in the death probabilities at ages 90 and over. c, The solid line shows the logarithm of the observed death probabilities in 2014. The dashed line shows the fit of the CoDe 2.0 model if the slope parameter of the logistic model b would not change with age. d, The blue line shows the probability that at least one woman aged 115 will reach age 116, and the red line shows the probability that at least one woman will reach age 120. These probabilities depend on both the size of the population at risk and the level of death probabilities.
