First fall in UK annual retail sales since 2013, Carney says Bank will be nimble over Brexit - as it happened

UK retail sales fell for the first time in October, year-on-year, since 2013, despite stronger-than-expected growth over the month

• UK retail sales rise 0.3% in October but fall 0.3% over the year
• Carney: Bank of England will support UK through any Brexit shock
• Eurozone inflation falls to 1.4% in October from 1.5% in September
• US jobless claims rise unexpectedly
• Bank of England governors quizzed on rates and Brexit

5.46pm GMT

After recent declines, it was a slightly rosier picture for stock markets today, helped by some positive results from US businesses Wal-Mart and Cisco and some relatively positive economic news. But worries about the Republicans' US tax reforms mean investors remain cautious. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

Stocks markets in Europe are higher today as the bargain hunters move in. For now the selling pressure has cooled, but traders are still cautious after the market endured several days of selling in a row. One positive day won't erase the memory of the declines that we saw recently. As we approach the end of the year, we could see further selling pressure as investors look to square up their position before the year ends.

5.26pm GMT

Coinciding with the Bank of England forum in Liverpool, governor Mark Carney has told the Liverpool Echo that interest rates could rise a couple of times in the next few years. he told the paper:

We'll see how the economy evolves. If it evolves broadly in line with our projections we would probably raise interest rates a couple of times over the next few years.

But there's some pretty big forces, some pretty big decisions still to be taken with respect to Brexit by the UK Government and the Europeans and all of those things can affect the path (of the economy).

4.59pm GMT

One eminent Twitter user whose every tweet seems to cause headlines is Lloyd Blankfein, and his latest comments are about Brexit. Jill Treanor writes:

The boss of Goldman Sachs has suggested a second EU referendum to confirm there is a consensus in the UK on the "monumental and irreversible" Brexit decision.

Lloyd Blankfein, in his latest intervention via Twitter on Brexit, said there was "lots of handwringing" from chief executives about Brexit and the "tough and risky road ahead".

Related: Goldman Sachs boss calls for second Brexit referendum

4.17pm GMT

Markets are heading higher after recent declines, helped by positive results from a couple of US corporations and some better than expected data. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

European and US markets are following the lead of their Asian counterparts, with yesterday's widespread losses being left behind for a more positive outlook today. The final remnants of the third quarter earnings season have helped US indices along, with a strong showing from Cisco and Wal-mart providing a boost as we leave behind a quarter which saw significant outperformance bred largely from low expectations.

The outperformance of Wal-Mart is particularly welcome, with rising sales helping the World's biggest retailer to gain over 8%, boosting the retail sector ahead of the crucial festive period. The retail sector boost was felt on both sides of the Atlantic, with the October UK retail sales figure outperforming across the board, helped by a historically low pound. However, while we saw retail sales beat expectations, the fact that the year-on-year figure remains in negative growth will not be lost to economists, with the economy continuing to flounder amid an uncertain economic outlook.

3.30pm GMT

Carney is asked about being criticised for commenting on Brexit by both sides of the polictical spectrum.

He says, we have to look straight through that. The only thing political for us is if we try to anticipate a political reaction. We have a responsibility under law to identify major risks to UK financial system and the broader economy.

3.13pm GMT

On Brexit, Carney adds that the Bank makes a judgement about how businesses and households are acting today, what their expectation is in the end.

Businesses are not investing as much as when financial conditions are good, but they are also not acting as if it's going to be a very bad outcome from Brexit.

3.03pm GMT

On Brexit, Sir Jon Cunliffe says the Bank's job is to ensure monetary stability, make sure whatever happens people don't have to worry about inflation, and financial stablity, so people don't have to worry about disruption to the fin system as we saw in the crisis.

We do this by working closely with banks so when things change, there is no disruption to financial services, in terms of things like insurance contracts. We test the banks to make sure they are strong enough to withstand a big event. We are helping government to turn EU law on financial services into UK law.

2.56pm GMT

Sam Woods is asked how the Bank keeps banks safe.

We have all sorts of complicated frameworks but they come down to two things: does the bank have enough of its own money to absorb any losses, and are the people running the bank honest, competent and know what they're doing. If either question is no, we take action.

2.48pm GMT

Ben Broadbent is asked to explain why interest rates rose at the most recent meeting, in two and a half minutes.

He emphasises the importance of stable inflation, saying volatile inflation is not good for economy, and it makes it difficult for businesses to plan.

2.39pm GMT

After a couple of days of decline, US markets have opened in positive territory after strong earnings from Cisco and Wal-Mart.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130 points or 0.57% while the S&P 500 opened 0.39% higher and Nasdaq Composite 0.55% better.

2.35pm GMT

Away from the Bank, some more US data.

Industrial production rose by more than expected in October, up 0.9% compared to a 0.4% rise in September, as output rebounded after the effects of the recent hurricanes. Analysts had been expecting a 0.5% increase last month.

2.33pm GMT

You can also watch #FutureForumBoE live on our Facebook page: https://t.co/YfEefmZY0a pic.twitter.com/HZDKwNYZBc

2.32pm GMT

Talking about the difficulties of communicating, Carney says the Bank's charter in 1694 begins with a 700 word sentence, which no one would do now. Not clear and open transparent communication.

2.29pm GMT

Carney moves onto the economy, and says the recovery since the financial crash has been slower than the Great Depression, real incomes have fallen. But more recently the UK and local economy has picked up.

Carney says they will discuss what causes changes in the economy, what effects they have and what role the Bank has (the team has been around schools this morning talking about this.)

2.25pm GMT

Mark Carney is introducing the session, talking about Liverpool and his favourite football team (Everton) and favourite band (the Lightening Seeds) and dropping the occasional groan-inducing song title into his comments.

2.20pm GMT

Here are the Bank's governors waiting to answer questions:

2.02pm GMT

The Bank of England's Future Forum in Liverpool is set to begin shortly, details here and follow it live here.

The Bank describes it thus: "We will discuss what we have been doing to make the economy and our work more accessible to all. We will showcase initiatives like our new education programme, our revamped major publications and our new website. For this session we will partner with Economy and Rethinking Economics, who are at the forefront of the campaign to make economics open, relevant and accessible. And we'll be asking for full and frank feedback on what we've done so far and what we might do in future."

1.52pm GMT

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, partly because authorities are still clearing backlog of claims in Puerto Rico following the disruption caused by hurricanes.

New claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ending 11 November, the US Labor Department said.

US jobless claims rose to a six-week high (249k), a move that may partly owe to volatility around the Veterans Day holiday pic.twitter.com/kNl99aBJ4S

1.32pm GMT

Sales at Asda, Walmart's UK supermarket chain, rose over the third quarter, by 1.1% on a like-for-like basis.

It was slower than the 1.8% growth achieved in the previous quarter, but marked the second consecutive rise in quarterly sales following three years of falls.

In the UK, Asda delivered positive comparative sales again this quarter. The improvements in store experience and price investments are increasing store basket sizes.

We're excited to have Roger Burnley lead Asda into the future as chief executive starting next year. Over the past year, Roger has been our chief operating officer and deputy chief executive and he has a long and distinguished retail career. I'd like to thank Sean Clarke for the tremendous work that he has done over the past year to stabilise the business and position it for growth.

1.06pm GMT

Over in the US, the world's largest retailer has reported its 13th consecutive rise in quarterly like-for-like sales, driven by growth in both shops and online.

We have momentum, and it's encouraging to see customers responding to our store and eCommerce initiatives. We are leveraging our unique assets to save customers time and money and serve them in ways that are easy, fast, friendly and fun.

12.31pm GMT

Mark Carney (and some of his senior colleagues from the Bank of England) will be hosting a session from 2pm on what they have been doing to make the economy and the Bank's work more accessible.

Details below for anyone wanting to follow the event live:

Future Forum will be streamed live at 2pm today. Get involved by tweeting your views and questions using #FutureForumBoE. https://t.co/QoknIA9ijM pic.twitter.com/L9wBvWrQvc

12.26pm GMT

The British Retail Consortium says the October retail sales data from the ONS shows retailers are feeling the impact of the squeeze in household finances (as prices rise faster than wages):

These figures suggest retail sales held up better in October than other sources have suggested, however there is still little cause to start the Christmas celebrations.

Consumers are clearly feeling the squeeze, with sales down year on year and spending being directed into the second-hand market. It is therefore, vital that the chancellor does not add to the pressures on UK households' finances in his upcoming budget.

12.19pm GMT

Scottish Widows chairman Nick Prettejohn has been named the next chair of the publisher of the Daily Mirror, Sunday Mirror and Sunday People.

Prettejohn, a former BBC Trustee, will join Trinity Mirror, which is in talks to buy Richard Desmond's Express Newspapers for 125m, in May.

Scottish Widows chairman and ex-BBC Trustee Nick Prettejohn to be next chairman of owner of Daily Mirror, Sunday Mirror and Sunday People https://t.co/wxD1LIaw9a

12.04pm GMT

The pound is up a touch after the UK retail sales data, which showed stronger-than-expected growth in sales at 0.3% in October.

Sterling is currently up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.3189, and up 0.5% against the euro at a1.1212.

A better than forecast - but far from great - UK retail sales reading has managed to cheer up the pound.

Superficially October's retail sales reading wasn't bad, coming in at 0.3% against the 0.1% expected and September's upwards revised -0.7%. However year-on-year the figure actually fell 0.3% - the first annual decline since March 2013 - meaning you'd have to be pretty desperate to treat the data as positive.

11.07am GMT

Andrew Sentance, former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, says that Philip Hammond won't be so keen to stress Britain's relative growth performance when he presents his budget next week:

One thing the Chancellor won't be able to boast about in next week's Budget is the UK's growth performance. We are now bottom of the growth league among major economies in Europe and North America. pic.twitter.com/piddO08PMw

11.04am GMT

Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, has said the Uber appeal process could go on for a number of years.

Uber is currently appealing against the decision by Transport for London to strip it of its London licence on the basis that the company is not a "fit and proper" private car hire operator.

This morning I'm answering questions from @LondonAssembly. Watch Mayor's Question Time live on my Facebook page #MQT https://t.co/rqBAy6lfxt

10.50am GMT

Eurozone inflation was 1.4% in October according to Eurostat, confirming its earlier flash estimate. It was a slight drop from 1.5% in September.

Fuel, hotels and milk, cheese and eggs made the biggest contributions to inflation last month, while clothing and social protect held it back.

10.16am GMT

Consumer reluctance to spend money in October was evident in clothing sales, which fell by 1.5% over the month.

However, retailers are putting a lot of that down to warmer weather, which they say put people off from stocking up on winter clothing.

Feedback from a number of clothing retailers suggested that a particularly mild October meant that consumers delayed purchasing winter season clothing. The Met Office summary for October 2017 said that the UK mean temperature was above the long-term average for this period.

After a fairly sharp slump in September, retail sales stagnated in October as unseasonably warm weather meant shoppers weren't replenishing their winter wardrobes.

But as weak readings from Visa and the British Retail Consortium have highlighted in recent months, consumers are still remaining very cautious more generally, particularly when it comes to non-essentials.

10.01am GMT

Some economists are not overly impressed with the 0.3% rise in retail sales in October, cautioning that it still paints a pretty weak picture of the consumer backdrop.

While today's retail sales number has beat expectations, it comes after a clattering fall in September and does nothing to ease concerns that the High St is under severe pressure heading into the only time of year that it makes any money.

Squeezed #UK #consumers reluctant to spend in Oct as #retail #sales volumes rise modest 0.3% m/m after fall of 0.7% in Sep. Sales down 0.3% y/y in Oct, first annual decline since 2013

9.53am GMT

Demand for second-hand goods was a key driver of the 0.3% increase in monthly retail sales, according to the Office for National Statistics.

We are continuing to see an underlying picture of steady growth in retail sales, although this October suffered in comparison with a very strong October in 2016.

Growth month-on-month in October was particularly strong in the second-hand goods sector, which includes auction houses and antique dealers.

9.33am GMT

Retail sales have beaten expectations with a 0.3% increase in October. Economists forecast 0.1%.

August has also been revised up slightly to show a sales drop of 0.7%, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8% fall.

9.27am GMT

UK retail sales data for October are coming up at 9.30am and should provide a key insight into consumer spending habits as real wages fall.

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 0.1% pick-up over the month, following a 0.8% fall in August.

Related: Britons 'face expensive Christmas dinner' as food price inflation soars

9.10am GMT

Wasi Rizvi, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, says the shock departure of GKN's chief executive designate is "another knock to confidence" after a profit warning a month ago.

While today's warning is clearly more one-off in nature than October's, it is a major knock to management credibility. The turmoil may be seen by some as perhaps making a break up [of the group] more likely and we expect that investors will continue to see value creation potential in such a scenario.

The appointment of an independent interim chief executive may also prompt some fresh thinking. However today's update will also further call into question the attractions of GKN Aerospace as a stand-alone business, given it appears that margins have been overstated in the past.

Related: GKN drops incoming chief executive before he takes up role

8.59am GMT

Engineering group GKN is the FTSE 100's worst performer this morning, with shares currently down 8%.

It follows the company's shock announcement that chief executive designate, Kevin Cummings, has been pushed out before he's even started the job.

8.49am GMT

An extraordinary announcement from GKN this morning.

The engineering giant has ousted Kevin Cummings, the man who was picked in September to take over as chief executive in December when Nigel Stein retires.

The GKN board has concluded that the next stage of GKN's development is best delivered under alternative leadership. As a result, Kevin Cummings, previously CEO designate, will leave the board and GKN with immediate effect.

The board has asked Anne Stevens, currently a non-executive director of the Board, to assume the role of Interim Chief Executive with effect from 1 January 2018 until a successor is appointed. As planned, Nigel Stein will continue as Chief Executive until he retires from the role on 31 December 2017.

GKN shares plunge a further 9% after more write downs announced in an unscheduled RNS

8.27am GMT

The FTSE 100 is slightly higher this morning, up just 5 points at 7,377.

Here is how it's looking across Europe:

8.20am GMT

Commenting on the current state of the economy, the Bank of England governor said the UK was worse off than it would have been if Britain had voted to remain in the EU.

We have not done as well in the short term as we would have done if the vote had gone the other way.

We've gone from being the fastest growing economy in the G7 to one the slowest.

8.08am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

We will do whatever we can to support the economy during the transition - whether there is no deal or a comprehensive deal.

We can provide support by keeping prices low and stable and by making sure banks can withstand whatever shock that might come whatever deal we have.