UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote - as it happened
The Bank of England's interest rate rise has made Britons gloomier about economic prospects
- Survey: UK consumer confidence has fallen sharply
- Details: Britons are more worried about house prices, household finances...
- German business confidence is booming
- UK consumer confidence lagging behind US and EU
- Black Friday - a bang or a whimper?
6.02pm GMT
Hopes that Germany could yet form a coalition government after the Social Democrats held out the prospect of talks to break the current deadlock gave some support to European markets. But a stronger euro limited the gains, while UK shares dipped marginally as the pound moved higher against the dollar. The final scores showed:
5.09pm GMT
Here's the latest Barclaycard update on Black Friday, and there's another new record.
So far there has been an 8% increase in the amount spent compared to the same day last year, and Barclaycard processed a record 998 transactions a second between 1pm and 2pm. That beats the previous record of 976 set an hour earlier.
4.19pm GMT
In Greece Black Friday has brought euphoria but also protests with unions denouncing the "foreign-imported" tradition as a "black day" for workers, reports Helena Smith :
While scenes of savvy shop buyers rushing to pick up goods at bargain prices were recorded in major Greek cities, employees were just as quick to denounce Black Friday as a commercial ploy.
3.46pm GMT
A stronger euro has seen European markets come off their best levels, while a rise in the pound against the dollar has left the FTSE 100 lingering in negative territory. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
The prospect of political progress in Germany buoyed the euro on Friday afternoon, while the dollar continued to move lower.
The news that Angela Merkel and her CDU-CSU party are set to meet with their former Social Democrat coalition partners acted as a pick me up for the euro, which surged 0.6% to a 2 month high against the dollar, while taking another 0.3% off the pound, pushing sterling to its worst price in more than a week. These gains took the edge off the DAX's own growth, with a 1% lunchtime surge halving to 0.5%; still, this keeps the German index above 13000, a level its struggled with for the past few sessions.
3.10pm GMT
The weaker than expected US data has undermined the dollar.
The pound is now up 0.35% against the US currency at $1.3351, while the euro is also strengthening against the greenback:
#EURUSD has broken 1.19 today, the highest level since September, driven by strong #German #IFO (and #euro data in general), #SPD negotiation willingness and weaker than expected #US data pic.twitter.com/YQYKkc0MRv
3.07pm GMT
Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com, said:
Donald Trump and his economic advisors will be concerned with the latest Markit survey coming in below expectations, after what has been a fairly robust upward trajectory since the start of the year.
The president has had some significant knockbacks in implementing promised infrastructure plans, and it would be no surprise to see him continue to lay the blame with foreign firms undercutting the US sector.
3.04pm GMT
US manufacturing slipped back in November but still showed a strong level of growth, according to the latest snapshot.
The IHS Market initial manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8, down from 54.6 in October and below expectations of a rise to 54.8.
US businesses reported another month of solid growth in November, putting the economy on course for a reasonable, though by no means stellar, fourth quarter. Current PMI readings are broadly consistent with GDP growing at an annualised rate of just over 2%.
There was also good news on hiring, with a slight uptick in employment growth meaning the surveys are indicating non-farm payroll growth of just over 200,000 in November.
2.50pm GMT
JUST IN: Macy's shares extend premarket gains after CEO's comments on holiday sales on CNBC, now up 3.5 percent $M pic.twitter.com/cOUsHCYoiZ
2.41pm GMT
After a day off for Thanksgiving, US markets have started off in a positive mood.
Helped by higher oil prices and rising retail shares on Black Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 37 points or 0.16% while the S&P 500 opened 0.17% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.13%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq have hit new peaks.
2.16pm GMT
According to Barclaycard, there has been a 4% increase in the amount spent on debit and credit cards by 1pm today compared to last Black Friday.
That includes high street and online sales, and also other spending such as buying a pint of milk.
Early data suggests that shoppers have once again embraced Black Friday, with many taking advantage of the discounts on offer. The value spent is growing at a slightly slower rate than the number of transactions, indicating consumers may be opting to buy more goods at a lower price rather than investing in a handful of higher-value items. Nevertheless, it's 'so far, so normal' on the high street and retailers will likely be encouraged by the results.
2.04pm GMT
Back with Black Friday, and here is a gallery of pictures from around the world:
Related: Bargain hunters: Black Friday around the world - in pictures
1.57pm GMT
Oil prices are on the rise ahead of a key Opec meeting next week.
Brent crude is up 0.19% to $63.67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate jumped nearly 1.5% to a more than two year high of $58.91. Part of the increase is due to the partial shutdown of a pipeline linking Canada with the US after an oil spill, reducing the usual 590,000 barrels a day supply.
We recognize the typical volatility of these market indicators, as demonstrated during 2017. We also note the persistence of a wider differential of $6 per barrel (/bbl) between Brent and WTI recently, although we believe this differential is likely to be nominally smaller in 2018. We base our long-term price assumptions mostly on fundamental analysis including assessments of the marginal cost of oil and gas production, as well as supply and demand fundamentals, for example
We continue to expect Brent and WTI to be range-bound in 2018. We note that Brent has been trading above $60/bbl since Oct. 27, 2017, having closed at that price on Sept. 25 for the first time since July 2015. As present, futures prices remain above $60/bbl until November 2018. We believe the price increases reflect ongoing OPEC production cuts, supply disruptions, and temporary production declines as well as positive market sentiment about demand. Shipments from northern Iraq were reportedly lower in October and production from several other regions was down as well. However, we assume these specific supply issues will be addressed in coming months. What's more, we believe that continuing production growth may marginally exceed consumption growth in 2018.
1.31pm GMT
Tucking into some lunch at your desk, perhaps after a dash to Pret or Greggs? If so (and even if not!), then get your teeth into the history of Britain's UK sandwich industry.
I'll read anything @samknightwrites writes but this piece of business history is exceptional https://t.co/MSH5CJKt4c
However magical you'd have thought a Guardian longread on sandwiches could be, the reality of it is a hundred times greater https://t.co/Ap2HWHhZzY
12.47pm GMT
Over in Germany, Amazon workers have gone on strike in protest against pay at the e-commerce giant.
In Germany, Ver.di union spokesman Thomas Voss said some 2,500 workers were on strike at Amazon facilities in Bad Hersfeld, Leipzig, Rheinberg, Werne, Graben and Koblenz.
In a warehouse near Piacenza, in northern Italy, some workers walked off the job to demand "dignified salaries."
12.30pm GMT
If you are risking Black Friday, know your rights!
Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, explains:
"Be a savvy shopper instead of a bargain hunter. Work out a plan of attack: make a list, set a budget and hunt for the cheapest place to buy. Never checkout without checking if you can save even more with a voucher code - often found by signing up to newsletters or on retailer's social media sites.
If you buy something online which you find cheaper elsewhere next week, don't worry, you have 14 days to return it and get a full refund no questions asked.
12.22pm GMT
The drop in UK consumer confidence comes as people in America and the rest of Europe are feeling more optimistic.
This chart, from Kallum Pickering of Berenberg, shows how UK consumer morale has fallen behind other advanced economies recently:
After eight years of a recovery that had occasionally been punctured by the euro crisis, a hiccup in emerging markets and gyrations in oil prices, households are becoming increasingly confident. Consumer confidence in the US and the Eurozone has risen above pre-Lehman peaks, with the Brexit-stricken UK serving as the exception to the rule.
Even in the UK, where households are suffering from a temporary real wage squeeze due to the Brexit-related drop in trade-weighted sterling and the resulting rise in import costs, consumer confidence remains broadly in line with its long-term average.
11.25am GMT
Economist Sam Tombs has analysed this morning's mortgage approval figures, and concluded that the market is cooling....
And so the downturn in mortgage lending begins. Approvals by the main banks down 2.6% m/m in Oct. Leading indicators point to bigger falls ahead: pic.twitter.com/6cnbJpVjCX
11.19am GMT
Despite the entertaining lack of a rush on Oxford Street at 7am, Currys PC World says its having its busiest Black Friday ever - on the Internet.
Online traffic via mobile devices is up 14% on last year, apparently, with TV and gaming consoles particularly popular.
11.08am GMT
Robert Gordon, CEO of Hitachi Capital, isn't surprised that UK consumers are more pessimistic:
"Job security, stagnating pay and rising inflation are all putting the squeeze on consumers, so it's no surprise that consumer confidence has dipped to a new low
Black Friday couldn't have come quickly enough for retailers, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend's sales are as robust this year as they have been in previous years.
11.07am GMT
The Financial Times has spotted that UK households withdrew money from their tax-free savings accounts at the fastest rate on record in October.
It's another sign that people are feeling the pinch, as falling real wages continue to bite.
New data from UK Finance suggest households have been saving less and borrowing more in an effort to maintain spending habits in the face of rising prices and falling real wages.
The total amount held in cash ISA accounts fell by 1.5bn, the sixth straight month of declines and the biggest monthly withdrawal on record in data going back to 2006.
UK households tap savings at fastest rate ever https://t.co/85L82AWgzP
10.48am GMT
UK shoppers are right to be wary of Black Friday 'bargains', according to industry experts.
Gemma Butler, associate director of marketing at the Chartered Institute of Marketing, says 'wise consumers' will keep their wallets and purses closed.
Widespread price fluctuation, fraud risk and misreporting of prices are understandably of concern to consumers, whilst the pressure to offer incredible deals does seem to have led some marketers to abandon best practice.
10.28am GMT
Black Friday? Slack Friday, more like.
It appears that UK shoppers (sensibly) decided to stay in bed rather than queue in the dark to pick up some bargains.
And the doors are open.... the rush came and went (quickly) #BlackFriday @BBCLondonNews @BBC_HaveYourSay pic.twitter.com/jkUjFnhwMo
The number of shoppers online between midnight and 7am dived 24% on last year according to e-commerce trends service PCA Predict after an 11% rise in shopping over the previous week.
"This longer sales period has shifted the emphasis away from Black Friday being a major retail event in its own right, towards becoming part of a pre-Christmas mini season or "Golden Quarter" for retailers," said Chris Boaz, "head of marketing of PCA Predict.
Don't panic! Next investors it's just old summer stock on sale on Black Friday in my local store. pic.twitter.com/3LNuti1nsG
Not sure why Next even bothered blowing up balloons given halfheartedness of offers. Maybe deals are better in other stores... pic.twitter.com/i3gxn9ec4N
9.55am GMT
Just in: UK mortgage approvals have hit their lowest level since September 2016.
Banks approved 40,488 loans for house purchases in October, down from 41,576 in September.
UK mortgage approvals drop to 40,488 in October (41,576 prev.) but a big jump in remortgages to a 9-year high of 34,000 as households anticipated BoE interest rate increase pic.twitter.com/nKZLaYW89F
9.26am GMT
German business confidence has jumped again, in a sign that the European recovery is sizzling away.
In a stark contrast with Britain's worried consumers, bosses in Europe's largest economy are very upbeat despite the collapse of coalition talks this month.
"Sentiment among German businesses is very strong,"
"This was due to far more optimistic business expectations. The German economy is on track for a boom."
Better than expected November German business confidence report from IFO. Business climate rose to 117.5 in November from 116.8 in October on the back of an improvement in the expectations component. pic.twitter.com/CJedTIyZrr
The Ifo (Germany's most comprehensive business survey) knows no political crisis. https://t.co/SjaucHLETl pic.twitter.com/F3FcFyfNcm
The German IFO index is at its highest level since October 1969. Expectations highest in 7 years 'only'. pic.twitter.com/Mp6zokKuP1
9.12am GMT
UK retailer Sports Direct has called a shareholder meeting, to vote on whether to pay 11m to the brother of founder Mike Ashley.
It's important for me to say that if John had owed 1 to Sports Direct, I would have ensured any sum was repaid in full. I hope shareholders will therefore be reassured that everything is in order and that any concerns are laid to rest."
Related: Sports Direct review finds it underpaid Mike Ashley's brother 11m
9.03am GMT
There's not much drama in the European stock markets this morning.
Britain's FTSE 100 has dropped by 15 points, or 0.2%.
8.56am GMT
With excellent timing, Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro has said that future interest rate moves will largely be dictated by Brexit.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Tenreyro explained that nothing could be ruled out in the Brexit era - a hint that rate cuts or hikes could be on the agenda.
"People up until recently thought that Brexit meant monetary policy would remain highly accommodative and interest rates would stay low forever.
But Brexit might present other challenges that require the opposite. It might require an adjustment either way, and it's not obvious. That's something to be prepared for."
"Brexit will likely affect the supply side of the economy,.
"We don't know how the demand side will respond. It depends on how households and companies react to the new normal, to the new potential. Shocks can hit the economy one way or the other and we will have to respond to that."
Exclusive: BOE's Silvana Tenreyro rules out nothing on interest rates in U.K.'s Brexit-era economy https://t.co/9JSdlI9L8x via @jillianfward @fergalob pic.twitter.com/3P2oMAaWK4
Tenreyro - 2 more hikes over 3y seems reasonable, but Brexit means @bankofengland has to be ready for shocks in either direction. Growth will be modest, but she sees signs of domestic CPI pressure. https://t.co/1quTaRc3p6
8.20am GMT
UK consumers won't feel any more confident after reading today's front pages.
Several newspapers are leading on yesterday's warning that Britain face a two-decade long pay squeeze. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons that we will be earning around 750 per year less in 2022-23 than in 2007-08, in real terms (adjusted for inflation).
Unless the economy performs better than expected, the IFS now thinks Britain is in danger of losing not just one, but getting on for two decades of earnings growth. This would be the equivalent of earnings being lower when John Major left Downing Street in 1997 than when Margaret Thatcher began 18 years of Conservative rule in 1979. Historically, it is without precedent.
UK prospects:
Wage growth-grim
Growth-grim
Debt-grim
-And then #Brexit
Tomorrow's Guardian pic.twitter.com/pqxy2NgC1g
THE INDEPENDENT: "Britons face two decades without a pay rise" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4WWrVfIE4o
THE TIMES: "Adverts fund paedophile habits" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gLaLxXRtRs
8.02am GMT
Today's survey shows a "big decline" in UK consumer confidence this month, according to Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov reports.
Harmston adds:
There have been falls across the board - from how secure people feel in their jobs to what they think house prices will do - and the increased cost of living has put a big squeeze on people's household finances.
Overall, these are a gloomy set of consumer confidence figures."
7.45am GMT
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
UK consumers are feeling at their gloomiest since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum last June.
The first interest rate hike in over a decade triggered fears that higher borrowing costs will compound the inflation-induced squeeze on household incomes.
Simultaneously, higher rates and a housing market in slowdown are warning signals for many homeowners, who fear house price growth may be further dampened. With these economic headwinds set to persist, and the OBR forecasting a weaker growth, households are understandably worried."
Related: Black Friday 2017: all the best deals in one place
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