Brexit: 'At the moment we are heading for no deal by accident,' says Jeremy Hunt - Politics live
Rolling coverage of the day's political developments as they happen
4.11pm BST
3.49pm BST
In a Guardian article Jonathan Lis, deputy director of the British Infuence thinktank, says that, despite what Jeremy Hunt is saying (see 12.26pm), a no deal Brexit won't happen. Here's an extract.
Theresa May. She will not accept a no-deal scenario. Everything she has done so far demonstrates her terror of it. The EU has called her bluff on the negotiation sequencing, divorce payment, Irish backstop and transition terms, and to keep the show on the road she has blinked each time.
Assume then that May folds and subsequently resigns. The new prime minister declares that no deal really is better than a bad deal. He or she needn't come clean about the consequences: reality will step into the breach. Put simply, Britain will start shutting up shop by the new year. Tens of thousands of EU citizens will leave, manufacturers will make show-stopping announcements about the closure of businesses, and the pound will tumble. Can the new prime minister depend on voters' enthusiastic embrace of an entirely voluntary and pointless Blitz spirit, or will they call for a climbdown?
Related: A no-deal Brexit will not happen. Here's why | Jonathan Lis
2.48pm BST
Farmers struggling in the hot dry conditions will be allowed more flexibility in the rules on taking water out of the environment, the Environment Agency has said. As the Press Association reports, the move will make it easier to trade water allowances between farmers to maximise supplies and help them to make the most of extra water in rivers after heavy rain.
The Environment Agency announced the change after National Farmers' Union (NFU) had a meeting with Michael Gove, the environment secretary. Speaking to reporters, Gove said:
We will make sure farmers have what they need in order to provide us with high-quality food and ensure their businesses survive. We want to be flexible and we don't want to allow bureaucracy to get in the way of providing farmers with the support they deserve and the country needs.
2.43pm BST
Here is the Austrian foreign minister, Karin Kneissl, on her meeting with Jeremy Hunt.
She seems to be confirming that Austria is preparing for the possibility of a no deal Brexit.
It was an excellent and inspiring meeting with Foreign Secretary @Jeremy_Hunt. Key issues were the #Brexit negotiations and the future UK-EU relationship. We pursue a pragmatic approach and are prepared for the different possible scenarios of #Brexit. @foreignoffice pic.twitter.com/RYlJrlklig
2.28pm BST
In the comments BTL Strengthintruth suggests this letter, from today's paper, deserves a wider audience.
Related: Palestinians in the UK speak out for the right to freedom of speech | Letters
1.48pm BST
Angela Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, has suggested that Peter Willsman should resign from the party's national executive committee after being recorded accusing Jewish "Trump fanatics" of making up allegations of antisemitism.
Willsman has apologised and referred himself for equalities training.
I think sometimes people say an apology isn't always enough. And certainly, Pete Willsman, who I've known for many years, should not be allowed to make such awful and appalling comments ... I think the tone of which he spoke, and what he said in that, isn't acceptable.
Now he's made an apology. I think for most people, I don't think it goes far enough ...
1.32pm BST
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has said in a clip for broadcasters that the antisemitism row has "shaken" Labour "to the core". But the party will resolve it, he said.
Labour @johnmcdonnellMP says anti semitism row has "shaken us to our core" pic.twitter.com/WBHAoW3TXj
1.12pm BST
When he was speaking to reporters after his meeting with his Austrian counterpart Karin Kneissl, Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also dismissed claims that British government warnings about the consequences of a no deal Brexit amounted to scaremongering. According to the Reuters report, he said:
This is not project fear, this is project reality. We have to make a decision on Britain's future relationship with the EU by the end of this year and we have to be very honest with ourselves about the choices that we face.
1.01pm BST
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has said that Labour is considering including plans for a universal basic income in its next manifesto. In an interview with the Independent he said:
It's one of those things I think we can get into the next manifesto and see, it's worth a try. There have been pilots elsewhere. I'm trying to wait for the feedback ...
If you look at what's happened elsewhere in other countries - and I think Scotland is looking at it as well - they are doing it on a small geographical basis in particular towns.
12.26pm BST
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, has been intensifying his warnings about the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Last week, when he went to Berlin, he said there was "a risk of a no deal by accident". He said much the same yesterday, as he went to Paris and said the possibility of a no deal was "increasing by the day". And today, after meeting his Austrian counterpart Karin Kneissl in Vienna, he said in a tweet there was "a real risk of a messy divorce which would be a geostrategic mistake".
As I said in Vienna this morning, we want the EU to prosper but there is a real risk of a messy divorce which would be a geostrategic mistake. Let's have a pragmatic solution to allow the deep and special friendship between UK and EU to continue. pic.twitter.com/jwpjKek5Kw
At the moment we are heading for no deal by accident.
Asked whether there was any possibility of an extension to the UK's exit date of March 29 next year, or even to the exit talks due to be concluded by October, Hunt said he thought this was "highly unlikely".
"I think people would worry if there was any delay in the exit date that it was some kind of project to avoid leaving the EU," he said.
11.45am BST
Sky News has been using Freedom of Information requests to get hold of Brexit impact studies produced by councils. As Faisal Islam reports, some of them are not encouraging.
Nearly 30 councils have responded to a freedom of information request for their Brexit plans, with some expressing mounting incredulity and exasperation at having to plan to deliver local public services against a backdrop of highly uncertain Brexit negotiations with Europe and within government.
They say they are having to work out the implications for social care, border controls, the availability of food and medicines and even the fear of "social unrest."
SHETLAND: This study from Highlands & Islands shows the % if loss making farms under different scenarios. Not a great look for WTO - 86% of sheep farms making a loss. The study expresses concerns about falling land prices as well. pic.twitter.com/PMVMYShAew
EAST SUSSEX: Concerns about a Social Care crisis being compounded in East Sussex (we found this in lots of places) - 11% of their Social Care workforce are EU nationals and they already have a staffing shortage pic.twitter.com/arbbChhVKJ
BRISTOL: Eyebrow raising concerns of social unrest in this council study "as neither Leave or Remain voters feel their concerns are being met." pic.twitter.com/JXvOFy67GL
PEMBROKSHIRE: This extraordinary chart from the Welsh coast shows the 18 ways the council believe Brexit will impact the area. 17 out of 18 are Negative pic.twitter.com/frQs6fb0Gc
And the one positive? "Reduced demand for services if population reduces." i.e. 'Everyone will move out' pic.twitter.com/YzSyN2K9Bo
11.22am BST
Business Insider's Thomas Colson has a good story about Home Office contingency planning for border controls after no deal Brexit. He says one conclusions was that EU nationals would continue to get preferential treatment at the border because the Border Force would not have the resources to tighten checks. He says:
A source close to the Home Office explained that the Border Force would likely have little other choice than to carry on allowing EU citizens freely into the UK as it would not have the staffing capacity, resources, or infrastructure to implement a new registration scheme in a no-deal scenario.
It currently takes an average of approximately 45 seconds to check an EEA citizens' passport, compared to an average of 4 minutes for an non-EEA arrival.
11.14am BST
This is from the Labour MP Stephen Kinnock on what he thinks Labour should do next to address the antisemitism problem facing the party.
This is now a full-blown crisis for our Party. 3 things must happen today: Jeremy Corbyn must confirm that likening Israel to the Nazis is an anti-semitic act; the NEC must adopt the IHRA definition in full, and the Margaret Hodge and Ian Austin inquiries have to be halted. https://t.co/2i2aWFHzjE
10.33am BST
Karin Kneissl, the Austrian foreign minister who is meeting Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, in Vienna, was on the Today programme this morning. Since his appointment Hunt has been regularly warning about the risk of a no deal Brexit happening by accident. (He was at it again yesterday.) But Kneissl played down the prospect of this happening. When asked about this, she said:
From the commission's side, there is a clear-cut schedule, so an accident is not really something that people are working for. Everyone is working along a schedule ...
If from both sides more effort is put into the negotiations, things can be handled in a transparent way and nobody should be afraid of a dirty Brexit, a cliff-edge or whatever. It's really a matter of sticking to the schedule.
10.12am BST
Boris Johnson is back in the running to be the next Conservative leader, a ConservativeHome survey of party members suggests. ConservativeHome regularly asks Tory members who they want to see as the next leader (and the results are taken seriously, because in the past these surveys have been a reasonably good guide as to the outcome of internal Conservative party elections) but when Johnson was foreign secretary, he never did particularly well. As Paul Goodman explains in the ConservativeHome write-up, Johnson's resignation over the Chequers plan (see 9.15am) has transformed his chances.
A month ago, before the Chequers cabinet meeting and the Brexit white paper, he was foreign secretary - tied to a policy which he clearly didn't believe in, and having failed to quit over Heathrow expansion. He was fifth in the survey, languishing on eight per cent.
Now, his rating has almost quadrupled, and he is top of the poll. He last led as long ago as March 2016 - in the aftermath of his decision to come out for Leave. Again, his total soared.
9.15am BST
Theresa May's proposals for the UK's relationship with the EU after Brexit - set out in the white paper but known as the Chequers plan, because it was finalised at an all-day cabinet meeting at Chequers - are a lot "softer" than people expected when she first became prime minister. But, according to a thinktank report out today, the economy would still suffer quite badly. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has published its latest economic review and it says Chequers would cost the economy the equivalent of 500 per person per year in lost output. And, of course, a no deal Brexit would be even worse.
Here's an extract from its news release.
Our central forecast under a 'soft Brexit' scenario is that the economy will grow at a pace that is consistent with its potential. This translates to annual GDP growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year, which is broadly unchanged from our previous forecast ...
As before, the central forecast has been conditioned on a 'soft' Brexit assumption where the UK achieves close to full access to the EU market for goods and services. If instead of this soft Brexit scenario we assume that the government achieves the somewhat more restrictive white paper proposals, the output loss will amount to 500 per person per year over time compared with the soft Brexit scenario. The loss would be around 800 under a 'no deal' Brexit. These estimates do not include the likely impact on productivity which could, on some estimates, double the size of the losses.
Related: Theresa May must push for even softer Brexit, says thinktank
Related: Corbyn apologises over event where Israel was compared to Nazis
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