Trump’s trade war truce with China fragile and hurdle-strewn | Nils Pratley

Despite stock markets surging, timeframe for reaching deal to end hostilities appears too tight

As ever with financial markets, what matters is the difference from expectations. Investors did not think the G20 summit would produce an easing of trade tensions between the US and China, therefore stock markets surged after Donald Trump declared that relations had taken "a BIG leap forward".

Yet it is only sensible to believe Trump's hyperbole when there is something on the table to inspect. All that has been agreed so far is a pledge to keep talking until March. The tariff increases the US had planned for January won't go ahead, which is clearly positive for markets, but it requires extreme optimism to believe a three-month truce can produce a negotiated deal on all the areas in the Trump administration's sights.