The political economy of the spine after I-976
The planned 2030 extension of Link rail to Tacoma is likely to be delayed. 65% of Pierce County voters backed I-976 (image: SounderBruce)Last week's apparent passage of I-976 has given rise to a fair amount of commentary affirming that voters were sending a message, and disagreeing about what they are saying. One could focus on the statewide rejection of taxes on cars, narrow support for car tabs in the three counties served by Sound Transit, a probable positive vote within the Sound Transit RTA, the clearly positive vote in King County, or the massive rejection of Sound Transit taxes in Pierce County.
Precinct data is clarifying. It's unfortunately not yet available in Pierce County. However, current precinct data is available for Snohomish County and first night detail is available for King County. Clear patterns are evident among the cities where I-976 over- and under-performed relative to the 2016 ST3 vote.
The I-976 vote polarized voters within the RTA along geographic lines more than ST3. Seattle voters, already most likely to favor taxes for transit, opposed I-976 by yet larger margins than in 2016. The suburbs to the north and south with the lowest pro-ST3 votes became more adamantly opposed with huge majorities against the MVET. The divided response from voters calls into question the marquee Sound Transit projects extending rail far to the north and south.
The tables at the end of this post compare, by city, the Yes vote on I-976 to the No vote on ST3 in 2016. In each table, cities are sorted from lowest to highest No votes on ST3. King County data is election night only. Snohomish data is through November 12.
Within the cities that delivered the largest majorities for ST3, the votes mostly tracked close to the results in 2016. Most Eastside cities were within three percentage points of the 2016 outcome. Seattle delivered the most emphatic rejection of I-976. 73% of voters opposed I-976, 4% better than the ST3 result. That result likely got even better when left-leaning late votes were counted.
In South County, even Renton, the story was very different. Cities where voters already leaned against ST3 swung 8-14% against car tabs. Roughly 2:1 majorities against the MVET make this area look more like Pierce County than Seattle or the Eastside.
(If you were thinking the lesson of I-976 was that King needs to decouple its transit spending from Pierce, where does South King fit?)
The Snohomish County results are generally negative. Most cities were a few percentage points more likely to support I-976 than the 2016 results. Only Edmonds voted against I-976 by a larger margin than the Yes on ST3 vote. The worst performances relative to ST3 were in Everett and Lynnwood. The swing to favor I-976 was 7% and 9% respectively. Awkwardly, these are the cities directly in the path of the Link extension.
Where does this leave us? The taxes that pay for rail extensions remain popular in Seattle, and reasonably well-tolerated on the Eastside. But future extensions to the Tacoma-Everett spine runs mostly through cities where taxes on cars are very unpopular. Politicians will have to figure out whether this unpopularity is isolated to the MVET and the controversial depreciation schedule, or if they need to address a deeper skepticism about projects. It's not hard to imagine a vicious cycle where reduced funding slows projects and further erodes support for suburban light rail. Pierce County voters will welcome their lower taxes, but another delay to the light rail extension also weakens the value proposition of the remaining taxes.
King County: vote on Initiative 976 vs ST3, largest swings to I-976 in bold
| City | Yes on I-976 | No on ST3 | Swing |
| Seattle | 27% | 31% | -4% |
| Shoreline | 41% | 41% | 0% |
| Redmond | 45% | 43% | 2% |
| Kenmore | 46% | 47% | 0% |
| Issaquah | 48% | 49% | -2% |
| Burien | 53% | 50% | 3% |
| Bellevue | 46% | 50% | -3% |
| Federal Way | 65% | 51% | 14% |
| Kirkland | 50% | 51% | -2% |
| Des Moines | 59% | 52% | 8% |
| Bothell | 51% | 52% | 0% |
| Mercer Island | 40% | 53% | -13% |
| Renton | 61% | 53% | 8% |
| Kent | 64% | 53% | 11% |
| Sammamish | 54% | 53% | 0% |
| Auburn | 68% | 57% | 11% |
Snohomish County: vote on Initiative 976 vs ST3, largest swings to I-976 in bold
| City | Yes on I-976 | No on ST3 | Swing |
| Mountlake Terrace | 45% | 42% | 3% |
| Edmonds | 43% | 46% | -3% |
| Lynnwood | 55% | 46% | 9% |
| Mukilteo | 53% | 49% | 4% |
| Everett | 58% | 51% | 7% |
| Mill Creek | 56% | 51% | 5% |
| Bothell | 54% | 53% | 0% |