Is Donald Trump's Iran strategy working?

Aggressive 'non-cooperation' can be effective but only if used carefully

The US president Donald Trump's authorisation of the targeted killing of the Iranian al-Quds force commander, Qassem Suleimani, is, in many ways, similar to his administration's approach to trade. In both cases, the administration has demonstrated a willingness to surprise by unilaterally leveraging US strength in the pursuit of long-term outcomes, despite considerable short-term risks and without wide consultations. As Ronald Reagan showed in the 1980s with his strategy vis-a-vis the Soviet Union, such aggressive unilateralism can work. But it is best used selectively and sparingly.

In seeking to address long-term US (and European) grievances against certain Chinese trade practices, the Trump administration decided to abandon the traditional approach of seeking redress through existing multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization. Instead, it opted for what game theorists call a non-cooperative approach, imposing harsh tariffs on Chinese imports and then threatening even more should China retaliate. By weaponising what is traditionally an economic-policy tool, the US has been able to pursue national-security objectives alongside economic and financial goals.

Pressing an adversary into a corner in the hope that it will make a mistake is an old strategy

Related: US-Iran conflict could lead to slower global growth or even recession | Nouriel Roubini