Here’s what it could cost for California to hit zero-emissions goal

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In September 2018, California Governor Jerry Brown set a greenhouse goal for the state: net-zero emissions by 2045. It's a very aggressive goal. The easiest part of the energy transition is the first bit: growing the meager share of renewables on the grid. But cleaning up the last 20 percent or so of our energy use is a bigger challenge and one that has yet to be tackled. From industry to air travel to agriculture, some things look like a very heavy lift.

However, achieving net-zero emissions is easier than "actual" zero because activities that actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere (sometimes called "negative emissions") could cancel out some of the stubborn emissions we can't get rid of. To find out how that might work in California's case, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory report analyzed options to estimate costs. It points to a hefty-though not impossible-price tag to meet that 2045 goal.

The first question is just how much CO₂ California is going to need to suck out of the atmosphere to achieve its goal. The Golden State's current plan is to see emissions cut from over 400 million tons per year to about 86 million tons by 2050. To hit net-zero in that case, negative emissions would have to grow to 125 million tons per year by 2045.

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