Markets rally despite fears coronavirus will hit growth and earnings - as it happened

Economists fear coronavirus could pull Germany into recession, but Europe's Stoxx 600 index and Germany's Dax hit fresh peaks

• Deutsche Bank: Germany could be pulled into recession
• UK and eurozone economies will be hit
• UBS thinks Australia's economy could contract
• European stocks have hit record highs today
• Introduction: Investors optimistic as virus cases slow
• New Coronavirus cases slow - live updates

4.02pm GMT

Time for a recap

Investors are driving global stock markets higher on hopes that the coronavirus will ease soon.

3.54pm GMT

Here's a reminder of just how bad conditions are in Hong Kong:

Related: 'It's like a war': the fight for rice and toilet roll as coronavirus convulses Hong Kong

3.37pm GMT

In New York, stocks have hit fresh record highs as investors bank on the coronavirus crisis easing.

2.31pm GMT

Newsflash: Cruise company Carnival has warned that the coronavirus crisis will hit its earnings this year.

In a statement to the City, Carnival says that it has suspended sailings from ports in China. This is now resulting in voyages from other parts of Asia also being cancelled.

Travel restrictions as a result of Coronavirus necessitated the suspension of cruise operations from ports in China, as was previously announced, and are now resulting in the cancellation of voyages in other parts of Asia. Significant events affecting travel typically have an impact on booking patterns, with the full extent of the impact generally determined by the length of time the event influences travel decisions.

As a result of Coronavirus, the company believes the impact on its global bookings and cancelled voyages will have a material impact on its financial results which was not anticipated in the company's previous 2020 earnings guidance.

Since the situation continues to evolve, the company is currently unable to determine the full financial impact on its fiscal year 2020. However, while not currently planned, if the company had to suspend all of its operations in Asia through the end of April, this would impact its fiscal 2020 financial performance by $0.55 to $0.65 per share, which includes guest compensation.

In addition, the impact on global bookings will further affect the company's financial performance. The company is currently evaluating contingency plans to mitigate the impact and will provide an update with its first quarter 2020 earnings release in late March.

2.17pm GMT

More than 50,000 companies worldwide have at least one key supplier based in regions of China hit by the coronavirus. Millions more have some relationship with such suppliers.

That's according to a new report from Dun & Bradstreet, the data analytics company, into the impact which coronavirus will have on global supply chains, and businesses around the world.

Newly-released report explores the economic impact of the #Coronavirus outbreak on businesses and supply chains worldwide. https://t.co/DaDRcWMv0g

1.29pm GMT

The organisers of the Mobile World Congress (MWC) have just said that are monitoring "the fast-changing" development of the coronavirus.

In a statement issued after a string of attendees pulled out, the GSMA telecoms industry group said:

"The novel coronavirus is a fast-changing situation, which GSMA is monitoring closely. This includes regularly meeting with global and Spanish health experts - as well as our partners - to ensure the wellbeing of attendees.

"We have already implemented additional health measures ahead of MWC 2020 and will continue to seek expert medical advice on a frequent basis.

1.13pm GMT

Vodafone aren't waiting for a decision... they've just pulled out of MWC too!

1.07pm GMT

The organisers of Mobile World Congress are holding a conference call now to decide whether to cancel the event or press on, Reuters reports.

The flurry of companies pulling out due to the coronavirus (including BT and Nokia today) could force them to call the Barcelona set-piece event off.....

1.05pm GMT

Back in the markets, US stocks are expected to hit fresh record highs when Wall Street opens in under 90 minutes.

US Opening Calls:#DOW 29385 +0.37%#SPX 3369 +0.32%#NASDAQ 9556 +0.41%#RUSSELL 1685 +0.41%#FANG 3681 +0.69%#IGOpeningCall

Energy update:
Oil - US Crude 5091 +1.47%
Oil - Brent Crude 5521 +1.99%
Natural Gas 1838 +1.77%
Heating Oil 16573 +1.89%
Gasoline 16221 +2.74%
London Gas Oil 494 +0.8%#Oil #Brent #WTI #OOTT

12.50pm GMT

Uh oh.... Deutsche Bank has predicted that the coronavirus could drive Germany's economy into a recession this year.

Bloomberg has the story:

"We expect the coronavirus to dampen gross domestic product by 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter, making a technical recession highly possible in the winter half-year," a study published by Deutsche Bank Research says.

The economists said that the coronavirus "poses a risk to the global recovery, as hopes rest on a recovery in the Chinese economy."

Deutsche Bank expects #Germany to fall into recession. After very weak Dec production data, small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Coronavirus will likely shave off 0.2pp of Germany's Q1 GDP, making a technical recession quite probable during the winter half. pic.twitter.com/8yy4yLdmk1

12.34pm GMT

Another casualty:

Related: F1's Chinese GP called off due to coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk

12.24pm GMT

Meanwhile in the eurozone.... Greek bonds have hit a new record high.

The yield (or interest rate) on ten-year debt issued by Athens has dropped below 1% for the first time ever. Investors will get just 0.95% per year on the bonds, showing they are seen as a pretty safe bet these days.

EUREKA! #Greece's 10-year bond #yield falls below 1% for the first time ever. pic.twitter.com/Its8XOfNxE

12.09pm GMT

Charlie Kronick, oil advisor from Greenpeace UK, has some questions for BP's new CEO Bernard Looney about his new plan to get to 'net zero' by 2050:

"BP's 'ambitions' and 'aims' all seem to apply to Looney's successors, and leave the urgent questions unanswered. How will they reach net zero? Will it be through offsetting?

When will they stop wasting billions on drilling for new oil and gas we can't burn? What is the scale and schedule for the renewables investment they barely mention?

A very ambitious plan from @BP_plc and its new CEO Looney:

- Reduce to net zero #carbon emissions from all oil & gas barrels it produces from well to pump (Scope 1, 2 &3)
- Halve Scope 3 emission intensity from all the products it sells#OOTT https://t.co/wdB6GPN7bE pic.twitter.com/T4eM17ii5i

On key question of HOW it will get to net zero, BP is quite vague so far. Says will increase % of spending outside of oil and gas businesses "over time." But no figures or timeline, which are key to measuring how serious this new direction is.

I suspect this will fall a long way short of the hopes of climate campaigners who have been flaming Looney daily on the comments of his Instagram feed.

Investors seem to think it's a positive - the company's share price has climbed modestly since the announcement today.

11.45am GMT

Breaking away from coronavirus and the markets.. oil giant BP has just announced plans to become a net zero carbon emitter within 30 years.

11.39am GMT

BT, the UK telecoms company, has just pulled out of Mobile World Congress too!

11.29am GMT

Just in: Nokia has joined the swelling ranks of companies pulling out of the world's largest mobile phone conference, due to the coronavirus.

The Finnish mobile firm has dropped plans to attend Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, after carrying out "a full assessment of the risks related to a fast-moving situation".

While the health and safety of our employees is our absolute priority, we also recognize that we have a responsibility to the industry and our customers. In view of this, we have taken the necessary time to evaluate a fast-moving situation, engage with the GSMA and other stakeholders, regularly consult external experts and authorities, and plan to manage risks based on a wide range of scenarios.

The conclusion of that process is that we believe the prudent decision is to cancel our participation at Mobile World Congress.

We cancel participation at MWC 2020 in Barcelona #MWC20 https://t.co/WcJhY68Npr

11.23am GMT

European stocks are holding firm at record levels today, despite disagreement over whether the coronavirus outbreak is actually easing.

The Stoxx 600 (made up of Europe's 600 largest companies) is still trading at a new peak, up 0.44% or 1.87 points at 430.

There's no stopping these markets, it seems, with Europe back in record territory on the tiniest sliver of good news in regard to the, newly-named, COVID-19.

Stock market investors are relentless, their ability to see the bull in any situation rivals only that of bitcoin enthusiasts, who can, it seems, make a bullish crypto argument for any and every newsworthy event. Yesterday saw the first deceleration in new COVID-19 cases in China, apparently a clear sign that the dawn is upon us.

11.23am GMT

Cryptocurrencies have also benefitted from anxiety over coronavirus, with bitcoin hitting $10,000 this week. Here's the latest:

Related: Bitcoin bounces back over $10,000 amid coronavirus concerns

10.26am GMT

Oh dear. Eurozone industry had even worse December than we thought.

Output from euro area manufacturers shrank by 2.1% during the month, and was over 4% lower than in December 2018.

Euro area #IndustrialProduction -2.1% in December over November, -4.1% over December 2018 https://t.co/5JvjRD7OLG pic.twitter.com/oG9dnLSsON

Ouch! Grim news for the Euro area this morning
"In December 2019 compared with December 2018, industrial production decreased by 4.1% in the euro area"

Bad news for Eurozone economy, as industrial production dips by -2.1% MoM in Dec. more than exp. -1.6% and -4.1% YoY, more than exp. -2.3%, led by Germany and Italy bad performances@graemewearden

10.01am GMT

Last night, S&P Global warned that the spread of coronavirus will reduce US growth in the first quarter to just 1%, down from a previous forecast of 2.2%,

However, it also eyed a recovery later in the year - unless the outbreak worsened.

"We expect most of the drag on U.S. growth to be in the first quarter, with a smaller hit in the second quarter and a rebound in the latter half."

S&P: Coronavirus will reduce first-quarter GDP growth | TheHill https://t.co/6VJHKexYIB

9.59am GMT

The coronavirus crisis is likely cut 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off growth in the UK economy, and in the eurozone, this year, according to analysts at S&P Global Ratings.

They predict that growth will suffer, due to lower exports to China and weaker business investment.

"The coronavirus, which has triggered lockdowns in some parts of China, poses a risk of disruption to the European value chain, amplified by the current low levels of European inventories especially in the car sector, following four consecutive quarters of contraction."

"In 2003, the unemployment rate was on the rise across the continent. Today, European unemployment is close to an all-time low.

Moreover, by lowering global growth expectations, the coronavirus has weighed on the oil price, which will lend support to households' purchasing power in Europe.

9.51am GMT

Just in! Ofcom has appointed Melanie Dawes, one of the UK's most senior civil servants, as its new chief executive.

Dawes takes over from Sharon White who left at the end of November to take up the role of chair at John Lewis.

Ofcom confirms that Melanie Dawes is to be its next chief executive, as per my story from November. https://t.co/xa9GCRas2Zhttps://t.co/yO0LTN1id9

9.09am GMT

Even if the coronavirus crisis does ease, it has already caused significant economic harm in China and beyond.

Economists at UBS have predicted that Australia's economy could shrink by 0.1% in the current quarter, as exports of commodities and agricultural goods to Chinese customers take a hit.

Related: Australian iron ore, gas and lamb exports to be hit hard as coronavirus crisis continues

9.08am GMT

Apologies.... Italy's stock exchange is at its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, not a full-blown record high as first reported (now corrected below...)

8.56am GMT

The oil price is also rallying today, reflecting optimism that Covid-19 will not derail the global economy.

8.28am GMT

The sight of Chinese workers returning to the office or factory after the Lunar New Year is also reassuring the markets.

The economic impact of the outbreak should be limited to the first quarter, in our base case.

For China, we expect a 100-200bps hit to GDP growth in the first quarter, taking the rate of expansion down to 4-5%. But for 2020 as a whole, we see pent-up demand driving a recovery and expect an impact of around 50bps."

8.21am GMT

All the major European stock markets are higher today in early trading, with Germany hitting record level.

Italy has touched an 11-year high (corrected), which also helped to lift the Stoxx 600 to its new peak.

7.57am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic are touching record highs today, as optimism grows that the coronavirus crisis won't badly hurt the global economy.

Related: Coronavirus: China reports fall in infections but experts remain cautious

The newly termed 'COVID-19' virus continues to keep the market and central bankers vigilant.

Wall Street charged on to record, running by the same theme from the start of the week on expectations that the coronavirus containment efforts could keep odds of a pandemic at bay.

The hope is airlines and industry will be back online soon. I'd be cautious about this. We're also mindful of secondary and tertiary outbreaks in Europe and North America even as new cases slow in China.

When Jerome Powell started his testimony today, the Dow was up 125, & heading higher. As he spoke it drifted steadily downward, as usual, and is now at -15. Germany & other countries get paid to borrow money. We are more prime, but Fed Rate is too high, Dollar tough on exports.