Wall Street rebounds from Crash Monday despite recession fears - as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2020-03-10 22:01 (#50G0G)

Donald Trump's proposal of payroll tax cuts drove US stock markets up almost 5% today, after a near-8% slump on Monday

10.01pm GMT

Time for a recap, after another wild day in the markets.

World stock markets have been hit by fresh turbulence, a day after their worst rout since the financial crisis.

Wall Street rebounds after Monday's massive losses, gaining almost 5% Tuesday. The Dow scores its third-best point gain on record, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 see their best day in more than two years. See BU-116TU. pic.twitter.com/H4pEQA99Vj

9.40pm GMT

Wall Street's finest are looking more cheerful tonight, after watching stocks recover from Monday's rout:

9.10pm GMT

Speculation is mounting that Mark Carney will use his final week as governor of the Bank of England to announce a dramatic package of support for the British economy to help it through the coronavirus outbreak, my colleague Richard Partington writes.

City traders believe Threadneedle Street could announce an immediate cut in interest rates, and ease borrowing conditions for high street banks, to coincide with Rishi Sunak's budget on Wednesday, as part of a concerted effort to help households and businesses amid the unfolding economic crisis.

Economists expect the Bank will cut interest rates by as much as 50 basis points to 0.25%, taking borrowing costs back down to the lowest level in the central bank's 325-year history.

9.06pm GMT

Does today's Wall Street rally mean it's time to pile into the markets again?

Not according to Oxford Economics, whose analysts urge caution.

Specifically, investors face three key considerations: (1) continuing spread of coronavirus in the West, (2) the fall-out of the financial tightening for fragile US corporate balance sheets and weak European banks and (3) policy responses.

Only (3) is risk positive while (1) and (2) are continuing to develop. Moreover, there are legitimate doubts about whether policy response can be effective.

8.54pm GMT

Tonight's stock market rally came despite predictions that the US economy could start shrinking this year, due to the coronavirus.

Bloomberg News's Recession Tracker has calculated that the probability of a US downturn has jumped over 50%, based on various financial indicators, economic data and other factors.

The surge in the recession probability reflects a sharp deterioration in financial conditions that began in mid-to-late February. As the number of cases -- and deaths -- from the rapidly spreading coronavirus increased, stocks plummeted and credit spreads widened.

The market suffered yet another blow after a collapse of OPEC+ talks led to a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, sinking oil prices.

It's imminent.

Bloomberg probability for a US recession just surged above 50%.

The highest since the GFC.

Remember:

% of yield curve inversions already breached the critical 70% level this cycle.

That, since 1970, never failed in predicting economic downturns. pic.twitter.com/H7VDO4kz6w

8.47pm GMT

Another 1,000 point move for the Dow at the close today, but today, it was higher. Stocks closed up, recovering some of their losses from yesterday's brutal sell off. https://t.co/D3knUuQmTd pic.twitter.com/7dFKJaGAwY

8.44pm GMT

Optimism that the White House might launch a stimulus programme, or take steps to support oil companies, airlines and cruise operators, drove all three Wall Street indices higher tonight.

Stock-index futures found support Tuesday after President Donald Trump advocated for payroll tax relief and other measures to help businesses deal with the economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus epidemic.

Lawmakers in both parties though expressed skepticism about a payroll-tax cut to bolster the economy.

Well done!

US Closing Prices:#DOW 25018.16 +4.89%#SPX 2882.22 +4.94%#NDX 8372.26 +5.34%#RTY 1350.89 +2.85%#VIX 46.64 -14.36% https://t.co/ZA2a2Wz58W

8.14pm GMT

Boom! That's last-minute scramble into stocks had helped Wall Street recover around half Monday's crash.

The Dow has jumped by 4.89% to finish at 25,018.16 , a gain of 1,167 points.

7.57pm GMT

Wall Street is ending the day with a rally!

7.40pm GMT

The 'plunge protection team', as they're known on Wall Street, appear to be back:

Regulators ramping up oversight of markets amid coronavirus turmoil. The President's Working Group on Financial Markets -- which we last heard from during the deep selloff at the end of 2018 -- held a call today to discuss markets, Treasury says.

7.35pm GMT

Bailing out the US shale industry would be controversial - especially if the White House resists calls for more paid sick leave for workers who may have the coronavirus.

Here's why:

BREAKING: White House likely to push federal aid for shale companies hit by coronavirus/international energy shock

Trump confidante & oil billionaire Harold Hamm lost $2 billion yesterday. Hamm reached out to admin but says he didnt make "direct" contacthttps://t.co/GsjHIJE6VI

Also: Trump and advisers have been taking calls since Monday from energy sector allies exasperated w/ oil prices & warning against sweeping paid sick leave policy

w/ @willenglund @StevenMufson @costareports https://t.co/GsjHIJE6VI

7.22pm GMT

Washington Post is reporting that America's shale oil producers could get a lifeline, to help them cope with the Saudi price war:

The Trump administration is "strongly considering" federal assistance for U.S. oil producers facing distress due to the steep decline in prices, the Washington Post reports.https://t.co/dREKpZZdYU

7.14pm GMT

Here's what's I mean about Donald Trump downplaying Covid-19 (which has now killed 4,000 people)

#NEW: President Trump gives update on meeting w/GOP congressional leaders on coronavirus response & getting tested himself:

"Some very good numbers coming out of some countries where it started earlier."

"I don't think its a big deal...I feel very good."pic.twitter.com/mdOMXCHnt5

7.12pm GMT

Back in Washington, Donald Trump has told Republicans he favours a tax break that would run until the presidential election:

Scoop: Trump told Republican senators in private lunch that he wants a payroll tax holiday *through the November election,* sources tell me. He doesn't want taxes to go back up before voters decide whether to return him to office. Story out soon.

NEW Sen. Chuck Schumer slams Pres. Trump:

"I'm going to be blunt. We are very worried about the president's incompetence and lack of focus on fighting the spread of coronavirus"one word could describe thus far the administration's response: incompetence."pic.twitter.com/lRnQPOamc3

Trump just claimed there were only 600 cases of COVID-19.

Off by more than 25%. It is up to 804. And growing faster.

Yah, I feel comfortable that the president is either not getting properly briefed or not paying attention so that he misses one-quarter of Americans infected.

6.56pm GMT

Europe's top central banker is pushing for governments to boost spending - to fight the risk of a recession this year:

ECB President Lagarde demands a rapid fiscal response from EU leaders in call $EURUSD

5.50pm GMT

A Barclays employee in New York has tested positive for Covid-19, Reuters is reporting.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said all meetings are suspended for 10 days, after a colleague went down with the virus (as flagged earlier -- not the WHO as I wrongly typed, sorry).

And another one. @wto suspends meetings following confirmation staff member has contracted #COVID19. Those #geneva hoteliers must be wringing their hands.

5.42pm GMT

One of America's largest shale oil producers has announced it is slashing its dividend, hard, following the outbreak of the oil price war.
Payouts to shareholders are being slashed by over 86%, as Occidental cuts capital spending to between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion, from its earlier forecast of between $5.2 billion and $5.4 billion.

Occidental is also planning additional cost-cutting measures, as the slump in crude oil prices takes a massive bite out of its revenues.

5.30pm GMT

Our economics editor Larry Elliott agrees that Italy faces a recession this year -- and probably a rather deep one:

With schools, universities, theatres and cinemas shut and its hugely-important tourist industry facing a washout summer, the economy is going to shrink in both the first and second quarters of 2020.

For the rest of Europe Italy is a country that is too big to fail. So what's really at stake is not whether Italian GDP contracts by 1.5% or 4.5% in the second quarter but whether its financial crisis proves contagious. As it might.

Charles Dumas, of TS Lombard, says: "The [Italian] banking system is unlikely to be able to remain solvent or liquid in the current conditions of nationwide lockdown. The tourist industry is effectively dead for 2020. Fiscal stimulus could be counter-productive if, as is possible, investors demand a much wider credit spread to accept fresh Italian paper. Italy will need massive support from eurozone partners to avoid going the way of Greece.

5.28pm GMT

In another blow to Italy, the number of Covid-19 deaths and infections has risen sharply again:

#italy #coronavirus update: 168 more deaths in the last 24 hours, taking the total to 631. 981 more cases - up to 10,149 #COVID19

Coronavirus cases in Italy rise over 10,000 with 631 deaths

- BBG

5.20pm GMT

Ashoka Mody, formally a deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's European Department, fears that the coronavirus will trigger a deep recession in Italy this year.

He argues that policymakers should devise a precautionary bailout of a500bn to a700bn, to reassure markets that it can meet its debt obligations.

The coronavirus will almost certainly cause the Italian economy to contract by about 3% in the first half of 2020, although the damage could be much larger than that.

As the Chinese economy slows down further - and very likely itself contracts- in the coming few months, the lack of Chinese supplies of critical parts and ingredients will cause continuing damage to world production and trade. That damage is spreading to Germany, which even as it struggles remains Europe's strongest economy and an important market for Italian manufacturers.

On why Italy needs a large precautionary financial bailout (500 to 700 billion euros). Now. The cracks along the Italian fault line are deepening. https://t.co/wceqMmSo17

5.13pm GMT

Traffic levels in Milan - a proxy for economic activity - has slumped in recent days as the coronavirus lockdown is imposed:

A couple weeks ago I was doing this for Wuhan and Beijing. Here's congestion/traffic data for Milan as Italy goes on lockdown: pic.twitter.com/uMeHWEfxeW

5.02pm GMT

Here's a clip of Donald Trump speaking at the White House earlier, promising (vague) help for cruise operators and airlines.

Trump says he is working with the cruise and airline industries on the coronavirus without offering any details: "We are working very closely with them. We are helping them. They're two great industries and we'll be helping them through this patch." https://t.co/TYdFuoEbec pic.twitter.com/ndGG7bhxIz

4.58pm GMT

The CBI have compiled a handy list of questions and answers for UK businesses, to help them understand how the coronavirus affects operations.

It covers issues including whether to hold or attend conferences, travel advice, and how to help employees who are sick or need to self-isolate. Online here.

- NEW coronavirus help for businesses -@cbitweets has compiled answers to the top Frequently Asked Questions firms have on:
Communication
Meetings, Travel & Events
"Employment
Cleaning
Supply Chains
Government & Financial Support
https://t.co/97gsBgGZ90

4.48pm GMT

Newsflash: European stock markets have closed in the red, as it fails to recover from Monday's huge losses.

The Stoxx 600 index has provisionally ended the day down almost 1%, having been over 3% higher in early trading.

And there it is!

The Stoxx Europe 600 has never been up this much in a day -- +4.1% at its peak -- only to end up finishing the session in the red. pic.twitter.com/zHmmPqvkWg

4.45pm GMT

The coronavirus has reached the World Trade Organization.

The Geneva-based organisation has confirmed that a staff member has been infected with Covid-19. "All necessary precautions" are being taken.

4.12pm GMT

The COVID-19 outbreak has forced the Royal Economic Society to cancel its Annual Conference.

It was due to be held at Queen's University, Belfast from 6-8 April 2020, but has now been axed.

4.04pm GMT

News of Trump and Pence's meeting with healthcare CEOs has dragged the US stock market back into positive territory.

But the S&P 500 is only slightly higher, having earlier surged by 3.5%.

4.01pm GMT

Newsflash: president Donald Trump is holding a meeting with healthcare bosses in the White House now.

Vice-president Pence is telling Trump that all the insurance companies at their meeting today have agreed they will not charge customers for Coronavirus testing, by waiving the 'copays' which would normally be levied.

VP Pence notes health insurance companies are waiving cost-sharing on #coronavirus testing.
"We want Americans to know they are covered through private insurance." A big question is what about the estimated 27 million Americans who are #uninsured? pic.twitter.com/8SOA1zQvkx

They're two great industries and we'll be helping them through this patch, and so far I think it's been going very well"

3.35pm GMT

The rally is fizzling out, as global stock markets continue to remain highly volatile.

The Dow Jones industrial average has now turned negative on Wall Street, having been up 1,000 points when it opened two hours ago.

We have a plan. Press conference tomorrow. Dow up 1000. Well, not so much a plan yet. Trump might have misspoke and was early, Dow loses 2/3.

rally fade, dead cat bounce it was pic.twitter.com/fxbUSRSUg9

3.09pm GMT

With 90 minutes to go, the European stock market rally is fizzling out.

Italy's share index has sunk by 2%, as traders digest the implications of the nationwide lockdown announced yesterday.

FTSE heading to close below the open, still up on Monday's close but below the open = bearish and would confirm my feelings that this is a deceased feline pic.twitter.com/2o9OBOwrm5

3.00pm GMT

Britain's FTSE 100 has lost 20% of its value this year. European stocks are down 17%, while Wall Street is roughly 13% lower.

But that doesn't necessarily mean it's a good time to buy, argues Clark Fenton, Portfolio Manager at investment company RWC Partners. Fenton reckons many stocks are still overpriced, despite the recent rout.

"Investors should not be putting money to work yet in equities. It is too early to start buying simply on the basis that equity indices have sold off from their all-time highs. All that has happened in US equity markets, for example, is that they have gone from extremely overvalued to very overvalued, and that's before taking into account the ultimate effect of the COVID-19's impact on earnings. That doesn't scream buy to us.

"In our fund equity exposure is therefore flat. We have, however, taken profits on positions that benefit from spikes in volatility, which served the fund well in February."

2.53pm GMT

Ouch! Deutsche Bank's chief German economist has predicted that Europe's largest economy will contract this year, due to the coronavirus.

Stefan Schneider told Reuters that German economy will probably shrink 0.2% in January-March, and a hefty 0.8% in March-June. That would push it into recession.

2.40pm GMT

Newsflash: The European Union is getting ready to relax the rules which force airlines to keep flying routes, even if planes are empty, or lose their landing rights.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has announced that these 'airport slot' regulations should be temporarily stopped.

It will relieve the pressure on aviation industry and in particular on smaller airline companies"

EU Commission President @vonderleyen announces measures to help the aviation industry struggling with #CoronaVirus effects.

They can now keep airport slots even for flights that have stopped operating. This will stop them from operating empty "ghost flights" to keep slots. pic.twitter.com/LkSWAq0NQN

2.26pm GMT

Back in the UK, some major media groups are practicing for the coronavirus by getting thousands of staff to work remotely later this week.

Mediacom, which is part of WPP, and Sky, will both test whether they can cope if staff are quarantined at home:

New: WPP-owned Mediacom, the UK's biggest media buying agency with clients including Sky, Tesco, Lloyds and Adidas, has told all 1,300 staff to work from home on Friday to test working systems in case coronavirus spread necessitates offices being shutdown

New: Sky has told all non-essential staff at its European HQ in Osterley, London to work from home on Thursday in coronavirus contingency planning. Only "business critical" employees - including some involved in broadcasting - of the 7,500 based there are being told to come in.

2.14pm GMT

Take note, business leaders.

United Airlines has revealed that its CEO and president will forgo their bases salaries through until the end of June, as fears over the coronavirus hits demand.

2.12pm GMT

Newsflash: President Trump has launched a new assault on the US central bank, labelling it "pathetic" for not cutting interest rates more deeply.

In another example of Trump's distain for central bank independence, he is pushing the Federal Reserve to get US interest rates down towards 0%.

Our pathetic, slow moving Federal Reserve, headed by Jay Powell, who raised rates too fast and lowered too late, should get our Fed Rate down to the levels of our competitor nations. They now have as much as a two point advantage, with even bigger currency help. Also, stimulate!

The Federal Reserve must be a leader, not a very late follower, which it has been!

1- stocks plunged when Fed cut 50bps last week
2- EUR has appreciated 5% in the last month
3- US rates already collapsed and are implying Fed cut to 0 anyway

2.05pm GMT

Shares in some of America's biggest companies are rallying today, but they're still sharply lower than on Friday night:

1.48pm GMT

Wall Street won't let the bull market die! Especially not on its 11th birthday.

Every stock on the Dow Jones industrial average is rallying this morning, as stocks bounce back.

The bull market started 11 years ago today on March 9, 2009. The record run of 11 years without a 20% drawdown for the S&P 500 could end soon. #Markets can change directions quickly. It was less than 3 weeks ago when the S&P 500 was at a record high. #stocks pic.twitter.com/hiyW2yVMDE

BREAKING: US stocks jump with the Dow up 870 and S&P 500 up 3.4% at the opening bell.

It's welcome relief after the worst day of losses for stocks since 2008.

But the US is still uncomfortably close to ending the 11-year bull market. https://t.co/TzvbvigrYT #stocks

1.36pm GMT

NEWSFLASH: Shares are surging on Wall Street, as investors return to duty after the worst one-day slump since the dark, troubling days of 2008.

Stocks are jumping, pushing the main US indices up by around 3%. The Dow has risen by over 800 points.

1.29pm GMT

Here we go again!

US STOCKS-Wall Street set for a rebound on stimulus hopes:
* Energy stocks, banks set to lead rebound
* Trump's news conference due on Tuesday
* Futures up: Dow 2.99%, S&P 2.97%, Nasdaq 3.14%

1.11pm GMT

Oh dear. White House insiders have been pouring some cold water on Donald Trump's promise of a "major" economic relief package to protect the US economy from the coronavirus.

Unnamed administration officials have told CNBC that the White House is not ready to roll out specific economic proposals, such as the payroll tax cut floated by the president.

"That was news to everyone on the inside.

"It's not there right now....A lot of details need to be worked out."

12.33pm GMT

Wall Street bank JPMorgan thinks the markets got carried away yesterday.

JPMorgan's chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has calculated that Monday's slump implies a 65% to 75% chance of recession in the next 12 months.

"In our view, however, the market has gone ahead and priced in too severe of an adverse scenario, assuming we get timely and strong counter-policy response and a COVID-19 outbreak that peaks in the coming weeks."

JPMorgan says recession risk is overblown

"The market has gone ahead and priced in too severe of an adverse scenario, assuming we get timely and strong counter-policy response and a COVID-19 outbreak that peaks in the coming weeks."https://t.co/hsuUOFIucP

12.03pm GMT

Not so fast, Wall Street!

Economic professor Nouriel Roubini isn't convinced that Donald Trump will push a tax cut through Congress, as he proposed last night.

Expect a dead cat bounce today as Trump proposes a payroll tax cut. Why would Dems accept it & damage Social Security solvency? Dems will rightly propose transfers to middle/working class folks paid with taxes on rich/corps. But Reps Senate will vote against it. Dead Cat Bounce!

11.58am GMT

Yesterday's rout was the busiest day ever for investment platform AJ Bell.

And interestingly, many customers were bargain-hunting -- snapping up stocks which were suddenly much cheaper. The most popular stocks were oil giant BP and Shell, who led the tumble - and are leading today's recovery.

BP saw its share price fall almost 20% yesterday, while Shell saw an 18% fall following the collapse in the oil price. While the dividends of both of these stocks may be put under pressure following the oil price fall, at current valuations the dividend yield looks very attractive for income-seeking investors.

"UK finance firms were also top of the buy list for investors, including banking giants Lloyds and Barclays, and insurance groups Aviva and Legal & General. All the companies saw a 10% fall on markets yesterday, adding to already significant falls over the past few weeks.

11.45am GMT

City economists and fund managers are spending a lot of time analysing the latest statistics for Covid-19's spread across the globe.

History professor Adam Tooze points out that China's infections are dropping, following the extreme measures imposed by Beijing. That may explain why Italy is now quarantining its entire population.

If you believe these numbers from China, we now know what you have to do to contain a coronavirus outbreak.
Italy seems to be drawing the necessary conclusion. @GoldmanSachs data via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/R5qaNnJShC

Some in the markets are looking at Korea which, like China before it, seems to be controlling the #coronavirus spread. Don't. East Asians are not seeing the active case infection rate double every 3 days but Europe (even Italy still) and the US are. See next tweet pic.twitter.com/LIhfUGqL3O

East Asia has had school shut downs for weeks which has helped. Europe/US have not which means they are following the Italy playbook. The active #coronavirus case number per 100k in Switzerland is 6 days behind Italy. All schools were closed in Italy 5 days ago ...meanwhile ..

France and Germany are about 8-9 days behind Italy. Expect the Bundesliga to be suspended in 8 days and German schools needing to be closed in 5 days (it is a big debate in Germany already). The UK is probably 13-14 days behind Italy with implications for schools/football etc..

11.04am GMT

The S&P 500 futures contract has now hit its limit, for the second day running.

But this time, the contract is too high! It's not permitted to jump (or fall) by over 5%, you see.

US Stock Futures approach 5% limit up levels!

Details on the CME's website.https://t.co/ob7Inb9nM6

10.43am GMT

Royal Bank of Scotland is offering to defer mortgage and loan repayments for three months, for customers affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

"We are monitoring the potential impact of Coronavirus across all our customers to ensure we can support them appropriately through any period of disruption.

We have a strong track record in working with our customers who are affected by disruption outside of their control.

RBS offering mortgage reprieve for those impacted by #Coronavirus

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND PLEDGES MORTGAGE AND LOAN REPAYMENT DEFERRAL FOR UP TO THREE MONTHS FOR CUSTOMERS IMPACTED BY CORONAVIRUS

10.36am GMT

UK banks are taking steps to support British businesses through the economic shock of coronavirus.

"We fully understand how worrying these times are for business owners, concerned not only about their and their own family's health and wellbeing, but also of their employees. They are also worried what the outbreak might mean for their business and with no knowledge of how or when they might be affected.

As our customers face into such uncertainty, we want to provide reassurance to them that, if needed, we are here to help with additional working capital to get them through temporary interruptions to their business and to their cashflow."

10.35am GMT

Standard Life, one of the UK's biggest investment companies, has suspended all international travel as it tries to deal with the coronavirus outbreak.

The Edinburgh-based fund manager has also split its investment and functions staff into red and blue teams in Asia Pacific, with some working from home and others working in the office - and they have their temperature checked twice a day.

10.27am GMT

Just in: Iraq has followed Saudi's lead, by cutting oil prices.

Iraq lowers April crude pricing to Europe by $4-5/bbl and lowers April crude pricing to US by $2.5-3/bbl

10.17am GMT

10.16am GMT

After falling into a bear market yesterday, today's rally might drag European stocks out again.

UBS on where we're at on European markets:
"European equities are now down 21% from the February 19 peak. This is one of the largest corrections in the last 30 years outside a sustained Bear market and has taken place in half the usual time."

9.50am GMT

Wall Street is set to rebound today, partly thanks to Donald Trump's promise of tax cuts to support the US economy through the coronavirus crisis.

The dollar bounced back against other major currencies following political statements from the White House that showed a willingness to act, through concerted economic policies, to mitigate the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

The focus of the markets is very unlikely to divert from the virus' impact on the public health and economic prospects of several countries, including of course Italy, but also, and crucially, the United States, where some suspect the numbers of infected may be much higher than the figures published so far indicate.

9.25am GMT

Saudi Aramco, the Kingdom's oil giant, has confirmed that it is flooding the markets with crude.

From April 1, Aramco will offer customers 12.3m barrels of oil per day, up from 10m bpd previously, it says.

Energy analyst: "The output hike puts Aramco supply above its maximum sustainable capacity, indicating that the kingdom is even tapping its strategic inventories to dump as much crude, and as quickly, as possible onto the market."

US shale has changed the whole global oil picture. But companies are drowning in debt. The squeeze started late last year, as Wall Street started pressing firms to tighten up and impose some fiscal discipline. Folks expected in 2020 to see the pace of growth in the US patch slow.

But what we might see now is a bloodbath. Gas prices have been floating between $50-60 all year. Most companies can turn a profit at that level. But now prices are in the $40s, with the Saudi surge likely to send them into the $30s. The impact will be massive.

Economically, this could get very bad for Texas and North Dakota, where the oil and gas industry carries a lot of weight. Most companies are hedged, so even sweeping bankruptcies or defaults might not produce economic impacts-a shale bubble might not impact the broader US economy

9.11am GMT

Britain's index of mid-sized companies, the FTSE 250, has jumped by 3% this morning - recovering half of Monday's slump.

The technology, telecoms, industrial, consumer cyclical and healthcare sectors are leading the rally.

8.58am GMT

Reuters is reporting that mortgage payments are be suspended across Italy, as part of Rome's measures to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.

That would help families cope with the economic cost of the quarantine measures being imposed, which will hurt some sectors such as retail and tourism.

Payments on mortgages will be suspended across the whole of Italy after the coronavirus outbreak, Italy's deputy economy minister said on Tuesday.

"Yes, that will be the case, for individuals and households," Laura Castelli said in an interview with Radio Anch'io, when asked about the possibility.

Crikey!

ITALY'S DEPUTY ECONOMY MINISTER CASTELLI SAYS PAYMENTS ON MORTGAGES TO INDIVIDUALS AND HOUSEHOLDS WILL BE SUSPENDED ACROSS WHOLE OF ITALY AFTER CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

This is how you do fiscal support in a health crisis. Mortgage relief for households, not tax breaks for companies. Well done, Italy. Britain, take note. https://t.co/ZZgWFirT6f

WE'RE ALL GOING ON A... MORTGAGE HOLIDAY!

Italy pulling out the big guns by suspending mortgage payments. Seems like a very questionable policy to me: well intentioned but kicks up a lot of issues. https://t.co/l9XepzjD8b

8.49am GMT

Nearly every stock on the FTSE 100 is up this morning. Quite a contrast with Monday, when virtually everything was down.

8.45am GMT

The coronavirus crisis is forcing more and more conferences to be postponed, my colleague Mark Sweney reports, on top of Informa's warning this morning.

And another one goes: London-based Advertising Week Europe moves to September https://t.co/nK4wuLs352

Future has postponed The Photography Show and The Homebuilding & Renovating Show, both at NEC Birmingham, due to coronavirus. Both will take place later this year. The company, which owns brands from Techradar to Metal Hammer, says overall there will be no impact on profits

Informa, world's biggest event company, has rescheduled or cancelled almost 130 events valued at 425m.

8.41am GMT

The UK FTSE 100 is pushing higher, as the recovery in London gathers pace.

The Footsie is now up 121 points or 2% (which recovers roughly a quarter of yesterday's losses).

The expression 'dead cat bounce' was invented for mornings like this.

European stock markets looked to recover some ground early on Tuesday on hopes of a round of stimulus measures as the market tried to rally the troops after the rout of Black Monday.

Investors are licking wounds and there is a stabilisation of the rout, but this looks like a short-term bounce on oversold levels, not a meaningful turn.

8.25am GMT

The wild losses of Crash Monday dominate today's UK newspaper front pages:

Tuesday's Guardian: "Stock markets in biggest fall since 2008 as virus fears trigger panic selling" #BBCPapers #TomorrowsPapersToday (via @hendopolis) pic.twitter.com/EiI8DPcanf

Global markets plunge amid coronavirus fears#TomorrowsPapersToday @hendopolis pic.twitter.com/7On1WXbAJt

Tomorrow's @CityAM front page after an oil spat sends global markets into a downward spiral #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/jhrQLWYSim

TELEGRAPH BUSINESS: Trillions of pounds wiped off global stock markets #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/KiOe8FrOL4

Tuesday's FT: "Oil price plunge sends tremors through battered global markets" #BBCPapers #TomorrowsPapersToday (via @hendopolis) pic.twitter.com/cfTQlvXZYS

8.21am GMT

Informa, the world's largest exhibition company, has postponed or cancelled almost 130 events worth 450m in revenue due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The company, which has already suffered a 1bn drop in its market value since the start of the year as a result of share price falls, said that its events arm accounts for about 65% of 2.9bn in total group revenues.

"We are facing a 2020 impact from COVID-19 in our events-related businesses and so we have used our strong customer and supplier relationships to swiftly deploy a material postponement programme shifting our events calendar to later dates in 2020,"

8.21am GMT

This morning's rally has lifted Brent crude by over 5% this morning, to $36.29 per barrel.

That suggests markets are coming to terms with Saudi Arabia's threat to flood the market with cheap oil, but still close to yesterday's four-year low:

8.08am GMT

Newsflash: Stocks are rising in Europe at the start of trading, as investors try to put Monday's rout behind them.

In London, the FTSE 100 has gained 73 points, or 1.2% -- a small improvement on Monday's 7.7% slump.

8.02am GMT

Asia-Pacific stocks have clawed back some of Monday's huge losses, amid hopes that China's coronavirus crisis may be easing

7.53am GMT

Faced with Wall Street's worst day in a decade, Donald Tump tried to assure Americans last night that he would tackle the economic impact of coronavirus.

This blindsided the world, and I think we've handled it very, very well, they've done a great job.

7.39am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

"We are to be meeting with House Republicans, [Senate majority leader] Mitch McConnell, and discussing a possible payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief, very substantial relief."

Our story on tomorrow's front page after a chaotic day for global stock markets, w/ @graemewearden https://t.co/fsaUYYPCZe

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