Leaked Cabinet Office briefing on UK pandemic threat – the key points

From management of excess deaths to public outrage, 2019 document set out likely social and economic risks

• Revealed: UK ministers were warned last year of risks
• What report tells us about UK's preparations
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The 2019 National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) is a comprehensive planning document that sets out the risks facing the UK - and what is needed to prepare for them.

It was signed off by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser. Over 600 pages, it runs through dozens of potential threats - but an "influenza-type pandemic" is at the top of this worry list, as it has been for years. Here are some selected extracts"

About 32% (21,320,000) of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza.

A case fatality ratio of 0.2%, resulting in 65,600 deaths.

Of symptomatic patients, 0.55% (117,260) would require hospital care, 25% (29,315) of whom would be expected to require the highest level of critical care (level three).

Peak illness rates of about 6.5-8% (measured in new clinical cases per week as a proportion of the population) would be expected in each of the weeks in the peak fortnight (weeks six and seven). This scenario would still have a significant impact on health and social care systems as well as death management systems.