Eurozone downturn and US jobless surge hit markets - as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2020-04-30 16:33 (#52VYB)

The euro area is suffering its worst contraction ever, as the French economy suffers its biggest plunge since the second world war

5.23pm BST

Time for a recap...

A fresh flurry of grim economic data has confirmed that the global economy is falling into its worst contraction in decades, giving markets a jolt.

5.07pm BST

April was a good month for Europe's stock markets, despite a late wobble today.

The Stoxx 600 index gained 6.2% this month, its best monthly gain since October 2015 (after the Greek debt crisis finally eased). Germany's DAX gained over 9% this month.

5.03pm BST

Britain's FTSE 100 has just posted its worst day in a month, at the end of its best month in two years.

The blue-chip index has closed down 214 points at 5901, a drop of 3.5%. That wipes out yesterday's rally, and half of Wednesday's gains too!

4.42pm BST

Shares in Zoom have dropped over 6% today, after the video-conferencing services admitted it wasn't quite as popular as thought...

Zoom had initially said it had 300 million daily users, following the surge in remote working. But, it actually has 300 million daily meeting participants.

Zoom shares dropped more than 7% after the company walked back on claims it has 300 million daily active users. $ZM actually reached 300m daily participants, the difference being that meeting participants can be counted more than once.https://t.co/UIVYBP9sqt

4.33pm BST

Despite today's declines, April has still been a very strong month for the markets.

America's S&P 500 index has gained almost 13%, trimming its losses for the year to 9%.

The S&P 500 is lower today, but still on pace for its best month in decades

Follow the latest updates > https://t.co/WLOc9YlsXU @naterattner @foimbert @mkmfitzgerald pic.twitter.com/wft4YvkJ9p

4.28pm BST

The US jobs report for April is released a week tomorrow. But we already know it will be grim, thanks to the weekly initial jobs claims numbers.

Capital Economists estimate that America's unemployment rate has surged to at least 15% this month, wiping out twice as many jobs as were created over the last decade.

We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%.

That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a single month, equating to more than double the total decline in employment during and after the financial crisis.

4.00pm BST

Crumbs, the FTSE 100 has now lost 200 points for the day, a loss of over 3%.... Still 30 minutes of trading in which to recover (or get worse).

3.39pm BST

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to hurt the travel sector badly too.

TUI has cancelled holiday trips due to start on or before June 11, meaning disappointment for one million hopeful holidaymakers.

3.37pm BST

Britain's economy has suffered another blow -- high street retailers Oasis and Warehouse are shutting, with the loss of 1,800 jobs:

3.20pm BST

Just in: America's central bank is expanding one of its many new programmes to help the US economy ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program -- which is meant to help small firms access affordable credit, and stop viable companies going bust.

More than 2,200 letters from individuals, businesses, and nonprofits were received. In response to the public input, the Board decided to expand the loan options available to businesses, and increased the maximum size of businesses that are eligible for support under the program.

Fed Reserve to expand loan offerings + qualification for $600 billion lending effort for small, mid-size businesses hit by #COVID pandemic. Main Street Lending Program to allow larger businesses to participate, ease loan amounts. https://t.co/8Nx9mgbIpw

3.08pm BST

All the main American and European stock markets are firmly in the red today - risk is firmly off the menu:

2.45pm BST

Bank shares are falling across the eurozone following Christine Lagarde's press conference.

Traders have noted her gloomy forecasts -- the possibility that the eurozone shrinks by an unprecedented 15% in the April-June quarter. The deeper the recession, and the slower the recovery, then the longer it will be until monetary conditions can ever normalise.

2.35pm BST

Stocks have dropped at the start of trading in New York too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped 301 points at the open, down 1.2% at 24,332. There's not much sign of the optimism that lifted shares so strongly in April.

2.30pm BST

Back in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde is insisting that the ECB has plenty of firepower.

Lagarde says the Governing Council did not discuss whether to buy junk-rated bonds under its asset purchase scheme, or whether to extend its new PELTRO loan programme beyond banks.

HELICOPTER MONEY FOR BANKS. #ECB's Lagarde: 3tn now available to banks at negative rates. pic.twitter.com/gBlpdvKOAm

2.15pm BST

European stock markets are falling deeper into the red.

The FTSE 100 index has tumbled back through the 6,000 point mark, down 143 points or 2.3% at 5972.

2.03pm BST

Oof! U.S. personal spending has plummeted in March by the most on record.

Household spending slumped by 7.5% last month, which is the worst since the Commerce Department started counting in 1959. That's rather worse than the 5.1% decline expected.

U.S. consumer spending plunges by the most on record https://t.co/NY4TwU96eJ pic.twitter.com/nGfUyGeUe4

2.01pm BST

Christine Lagarde hammers home the point, telling reporters that the coronavirus pandemic has literally halted economic activity across the globe".

The hard economic data is only just starting to emerge, she points out.

Lagarde: "frankly, our severe scenario is -15% economic growth in Q2"

1.49pm BST

Newsflash: ECB president Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone faces its worst slump in peacetime.

Speaking on a virtual press conference, Lagarde says the region faces an unprecedented" downturn.

ECB President Lagarde says Europe facing a recession of unprecedented magnitude; GDP could fall between 5-12% this year, depending on duration of containment measures and policies to mitigate the consequences; speed of recovery is uncertain

1.41pm BST

Worryingly, there is a large backlog of Americans trying to sign on for jobless welfare.

Our business editor Dominic Rushe reports:

Another 3.8 million people lost their jobs in the US last week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to batter the economy. The pace of layoffs appears to be slowing, but in just six weeks an unprecedented 30 million Americans have now sought unemployment benefits and the numbers are still growing.

The latest figures from the labor department released Thursday showed a fourth consecutive week of declining claims. While the trend is encouraging, the rate of losses means US unemployment is still on course to reach levels unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

1.34pm BST

Newsflash: Another 3.84 million Americans filed new jobless claims last week, as the coronavirus lockdown continued to drive up unemployment.

That's more than the 3.5m initial jobless claims that had been expected.

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 3,839,000 https://t.co/qzeWU4eGpX pic.twitter.com/TxhVqlvfLa

At 3.839M, Initial Jobless Claims came in above the 3.5M estimate, but below last week's 4.442M level; this was the 4th weekly decline. Claims are still EXTREMELY high, but this leading indicator appears to have peaked on 3/28. https://t.co/maIeV4Rfa2 pic.twitter.com/sNnXRXN8ON

1.13pm BST

The ECB has resisted making any major moves today.

Significantly, it has not increased the size of its new 750bn asset purchase scheme (the pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP), which buys bonds and other assets to stimulate the economy. It has also not widened the programme to include junk-rated bonds.

The Governing Council is fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed.

1.10pm BST

Here's some early reaction to the European Central Bank making its emergency loans package even more generous, to try to help banks lend to the economy.

Very dovish. ECB relaxes further TLTRO conditions with minimum rate reduced to 50bp below deposit facility rate and extends PEPP until the crisis is over. Main interest rates unchanged. https://t.co/IAf9DGh1mZ

#ECB to pay banks even more for borrowing and even if they don't lend on the cash to the economy. A sort of recapitalisation in disguise?

The stimulus package for European Banks. Cheaper bank funding means that ECB is primarily targeting the bank lending channel [+ offsetting impact of negative deposit rates]. Makes sense for ECB... bank lending in Europe more prevalent for financing. Let's hope there's demand $EUR

The main takeaways from today's ECB announcement: The ECB remains extremely activist, extremely interventionist in risk-managing Eurozone financial conditions. It continues to refine liquidity provisions to the expectation of weakening collateral quality in bank loans. 1/2

But the big question in the room - Italy - remains beyond its powers. Whether we think the ECB is here to close spreads or not, do we think it is here to prevent a political crisis? The requirement for Italy's downgrade is the same as that for EUR membership: M/T sustainability.

1.04pm BST

Newsflash: The European Central Bank has responded to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 by beefing up its stimulus package.

The ECB's governing council has decided to launch a new programme dubbed PELTROS -- which stands for pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations.

12.38pm BST

Britain will spend more than 100bn this financial year trying to repair the damage caused by the coronavirus, according to the latest estimates.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is tracking chancellor Rishi Sunak's various pledges - from the jobs retention scheme to business rate relief. And it currently estimates that the total bill is 105bn, with Sunak's furloughing scheme costing 49bn alone (although the Treasury should get 10bn back in tax)

Key costs in #coronavirus economic pkg according to @OBR_UK

Furlough scheme: 39bn net
Self-employed income support: 10bn
Small Biz Grant: 15bn
Biz rate relief: 13bn
Welfare package: 7bn

DOESN'T include estimate of any losses on various loan schemes

Our new database tracks the Chancellor's policy interventions to limit the economic damage of coronavirus crisis. So far, the cost in 2020-21 is roughly 105 billion (in cash terms)

Download from our website: https://t.co/x9blRq9Ui0

12.27pm BST

European stock markets have turned south, after another morning of bleak economic data.

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 81 points or 1.3% at 60330, handing back half of yesterday's rally.

12.05pm BST

Back in the UK, carmaker Nissan plans to reopen its Sunderland factory - the biggest single plant in the UK - at the start of June.

Production at the plant, which produces Nissan's Qashqai and Juke models and the electric Leaf, has been suspended since 17 March, with many of its more than 6,000 workers furloughed.

Our goal is to navigate through this crisis while maintaining activities critical for business continuity and to make sure we are prepared for the time when business resumes in Europe and we can welcome the Nissan team back to work.

11.58am BST

I missed this earlier, sorry, but Austria's economy has also been hit by the pandemic.

Austrian GDP shrank by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020. That's not as bad as France, Spain and Italy, but still puts Austria halfway into recession.

Austria GDP -2.5%, like Belgium -3.9% yesterday, shows that weakness is widespread in the eurozone, but far from the collapse seen today in Spain, France and likely in Italy. pic.twitter.com/Y58eCCixs5

Belgium GDP falls an unprecedented 3.9% in the first quarter.

Shows how severe the recession is going to be in the euro area. pic.twitter.com/o0kTzdRUYg

11.45am BST

Recessions are bleak things. They typically mean rising unemployment, more company failures, a rise in bad debts, falling asset prices and widespread gloom and despair.

But this time, they also mean that the Covid-19 lockdown measures are being followed.

"Lockdowns work" is the unfortunate economic news from today. Let's hope that loosening the lockdowns has an equally swift impact in Q2. The good news for Germany is, that it's delayed & less severe lockdown will likely leave its economy contracting by "only" 2% or so in Q1. pic.twitter.com/YQYRWB1s7H

11.26am BST

Ouch! The Covid-19 lockdown has wiped out all Italy's growth since the eurozone crisis, and more!

Italian GDP was down by 4.7% over the quarter in Q1. What surprise me is that it was better than France and Spain, despite Italy started its lock-down earlier. However, while the Eurozone is now back to 2017 level, Italy is now back to early 2000 level. pic.twitter.com/ds2hnj7yfC

11.15am BST

Newsflash: Italy has joined France in recession, after suffering its worst slump in decades.

Italian GDP shrank by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2020, new figures from ISTAT show.

ITALY Q1 GDP -4.7% pic.twitter.com/7azaDfNmsy

10.20am BST

Today's GDP data only gives us an early sighter of the dark slump which Europe's economy is falling into.

Economists predict another historic contraction in April-June, as the full force of the Covid-19 lockdowns hit growth.

Eurozone Mar qtr GDP -3.8%qoq as lockdowns hit in Mar. But full impact of lockdowns to show this qtr with GDP likely ~-10%qoq ahead of a return to growth in second half as lockdowns ease
Unemp up only slightly but its a lagging indicator
Fall in inflation. (Bloomberg table) pic.twitter.com/A76zse9FSG

In case the #ECB needed any more bad news for its briefing notes...#Eurozone GDP fell by 3.8% QoQ in the first quarter. And this was only with roughly two weeks of lockdown and supply chain disruptions. Brace yourself for worse to happen.

10.07am BST

The eurozone economy is shrinking even faster than feared, according to Reuters:

The eurozone economy contracted at a record rate and by more than expected in the first three months of the year and inflation slowed sharply as much economic activity in March came to a halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic, data showed on Thursday.

According to a preliminary flash estimate of the European Union's statistics office Eurostat economic output in the 19 countries sharing the euro in January-March was 3.8% smaller than in the previous three months -- the sharpest quarterly decline since the time series started in 1995.

10.04am BST

NEWSFLASH: the eurozone economy shrank by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, putting it halfway into recession.

That's an extremely grim contraction, worse than during the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Euro area #GDP -3.8% in Q1 2020, -3.3% compared with Q1 2019: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/x17Ql1VD2U pic.twitter.com/1fNtPVZokS

EURO ZONE PRELIMINARY FLASH Q1 GDP ESTIMATE -3.8% Q/Q VS CONSENSUS -3.5%, -3.3% Y/Y VS CONSENSUS -3.1% - EUROSTAT

9.58am BST

Here's a reminder of this morning's dire French growth figures (for those who weren't wide awake at 6.30am)

Shocking collapse in French GDP in Q1. Down 5.8%.
Bigger than the financial crisis (Q1 2009 -1.6%)
Bigger than the May 68 strikes/demonstrations (Q2 1968 -5.3%)
Biggest drop since comparable records began in 1949 pic.twitter.com/Bc9yIkOo0N

9.53am BST

Today's woeful French and Spanish growth figures will have dampened the mood as the European Central Bank holds its monetary policy meeting today.

Sebastien Clements, currency analyst at international payments company OFX, says ECB chief Christine Lagarde and colleagues will be worried about the future.

Not the ideal start to the day for President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, as both Spanish and French quarterly GDP figures came in at least 1% off the forecasted mark. It won't be the figure itself that causes a headache, but rather the potential of what may follow...

Lagarde has already laid her cards on the table with the bulk of the zone's stimulus options having been delivered in the form of PEPP implementation and collateral loosening, but her job is not yet done. With its back against the wall, is now a good time for the ECB to get ahead of the curve and inject some investor confidence in the form of maintaining a stable monetary position? Just this morning, I spoke with a client at a UK food distributor who has decided to close their European entity and set up in Asia for the sake of supply side ease, cost cutting and licensing issues."

9.41am BST

Newsflash: A quarter of UK businesses currently trading say that their turnover has more than halved this month.

That's according to the Office for National Statistics, which has just published its latest faster indicators' of the pandemic's impact on the economy.

9.16am BST

These chart from Danske Bank's Aila Mihr show how Germany's unemployment total swelled alarmingly this month:

#Corona crisis reaches #Germany's labour market, with largest monthly increase in unemployment claims ever recorded. pic.twitter.com/x046HlXBuM

So 10.1 mln people on short-time work in #Germany, 373,000 more unemployed in April and the unemployment rate is now 5.8% from previous 5.0%
The virus is taking its toll on the German job market

9.12am BST

A boom in disinfectant sales has benefited Reckitt Benckiser, which makes Dettol and Lysol.

People want cleaner surfaces at home. They are cleaning more, washing more ... Some behaviour becomes quite ingrained. There is a reinforcement of hygiene as a basis of health."

9.08am BST

Back in the UK, the boss of Sainsbury's supermarket has predicted that disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will last until at least mid-September.

CEO Mike Coupe reckons that physically distanced queues are likely to remain for the foreseeable future", dampening hopes of an early end to lockdown restrictions.

9.06am BST

Just in: The number of people out of work in Germany has surged.

Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless rate has leapt to 5.8% this month, up from 5% in May, the Labour Office reports.

German unemployment increased from 5.0% to 5.8% in April. Labor market is supported by extensive use of kurzarbeit, but unemployment is set to increase further. However, Germany has fiscal means and willpower to support growth substantially later in the year #macrobond pic.twitter.com/OwdrhRnQT6

8.54am BST

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell have tumbled 7% this morning after it disappointed investors by slashing its dividend by two thirds.

CEO Ben van Buerden defended the move as a prudent" response to the extremely challenging conditions" caused by Covid-19, with oil prices tumbling this year.

Given the continued deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the significant mid- and long-term uncertainty, we are taking further prudent steps to bolster our resilience, underpin the strength of our balance sheet and support the long-term value creation of Shell.

8.32am BST

France's fall into recession hasn't dampened the mood on the Paris stock market,

The CAC 40 index of leading French companies jumped by 0.9% in early trading to 4,711 points - a seven-week high.

8.23am BST

The latest economic data from China shows that its recovery from the pandemic is being hit by weakness abroad.

China's official manufacturing PMI (which measures activity in the sector) dropped to 50.8 for April from 52 in March. That shows less growth, as a reading of 50 indicates stagnation.

#China Factory Data Shows Global Slump Undercut Nascent Recovery - Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/gNTOU0UIt0 pic.twitter.com/4dycAL5BQc

8.13am BST

Newsflash: Spain's economy is also shrinking - and faster than feared.

Spanish real GDP -5.2% QoQ, also below expectations with private consumption and investment in free fall, unsurprisingly. https://t.co/HDCZMa2eFg pic.twitter.com/ugSiIBGgGh

Spain also worse than expected (even if less dramatically so): -5.2% vs consensus -4.3%

7.55am BST

More gloom -- French consumer spending has taken a whopping dive last month, as the lockdown forced shops to close.

Consumer spending fell by almost 18% last month, INSEE reports, despite a rise in food spending. It's the worst drop in consumer spending since at least 1980 (when the data series began).

Manufactured good consumption dropped sharply (-42.3% after -0.6%) and energy expenditure decreased markedly (-11.4% after -0.9%). Only food consumption increased (+7.8% after -0.1%).

The fall in household consumption in March 2020 was essentially due to the implementation of lockdown measures from mid-March onwards.

WOW
France Consumer Spending (Mar) Act: -17.9%, exp: -5.8%, prev: -0.1%

7.49am BST

French bank SocGen has posted a surprise loss, and set aside 820m to cover bad loans - in another sign that Covid-19 is hurting France's economy.

SocGen also suffered trading losses during the market mayhem of the last quarter. Bloomberg has heard that its traders came unstuck on some dividend futures contracts....

7.39am BST

Several major companies are reporting the impact of Covid-19 on their businesses today.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is slashing its shareholder dividend for the first time since te 1940s. Investors will get just 16 cents per share, from 47 cents per share, after profits plunged in the last quarter.

7.32am BST

France's grim growth figures are a clear sign that Europe is entering its deepest recession of the postwar era, says Bloomberg.

The economy shrank 5.8%, the most since records began in 1949. The slump shows the dramatic effect of government-ordered shutdowns as just two weeks of closures and restrictions were sufficient to snuff out growth for the entire quarter. Figures for the euro area later on Thursday will probably show the end of a seven-year expansion, and worse is still to come as confinement has continued for the past month.

The virus outbreak has plunged economies across the globe into a tumult that was unthinkable at the start of the year. China's economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter and the U.S. saw its record expansion come to an end. The IMF expects the global economy to shrink 3% this year, with the euro area dropping 7.5%.

The French economy posts its worst quarter on record https://t.co/zmnqLpeCxx

7.09am BST

A 5.8% plunge in GDP is really, really bad.

As Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet Wealth Management shows here, it wipes out several years of French growth:

We're going to be talking about GDP *levels* more than quarterly growth rates for some time. Better get used to it. pic.twitter.com/MSWHv2VQUm

7.06am BST

Here's more reaction to France's plunge into recession this morning.

France enters technical recession.

don't need Q2 to confirm ...

global economy was in dire shape b4 #CV19 pic.twitter.com/pWuSMALwmF

France's economy posted a historic decline of 5.8% and entered a recession. Expect Italy to follow.

7.00am BST

France's economy shrank even faster than economists predicted, Reuters points out:

The first quarter contraction was the biggest on a quarterly basis since World War II, surpassing the previous record of -5.3% in the second quarter of 1968 when France was gripped by civil unrest, mass student protests and general strikes.

The slump even exceeded most economists' expectations, which on average were for -3.5%, although estimates in Reuters poll went as low as -7%.

7.00am BST

This chart from INSEE's growth report shows just how sharply France's economy shrank:

6.39am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Newsflash: France has plunged into recession, as the Covid-19 lockdown batters its economy.

...primarily linked to the shut-down of non-essential" activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown since mid-March.

Household consumption expenditures dropped (-6.1%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: -11.8%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to -6.6 points to GDP growth.

Exports also fell this quarter (-6.5%) along with imports (-5.9%), in a less pronounced manner. All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.2 points, after -0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9 points).

French real GDP crashed by 5.8% QoQ in Q1, the biggest drop since the beginning of the series in 1949.https://t.co/ri7LxT1PlA pic.twitter.com/0AdesaH6mR

France officially enters recession, with economy shrinking by 5.8% in the first quarter, @InseeFr says. Worst quarter on record (since 1949)
Consumer spending -6.1%,
Company investments -11.4%
And remember France only went into lockdown in mid-March! @France24_en #F24

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