Deepfakes' Biggest Threat to the 2020 US Election Isn't What You'd Think
Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:
"If you were to ask me what the key risk in the 2020 election is, I would say it's not deepfakes," said Kathryn Harrison, the founder and CEO of the DeepTrust Alliance, a coalition fighting deepfakes and other kinds of digital disinformation (that is: intentional, malicious false info). "It's actually going to be a true video that will pop up in late October that we won't be able to prove [whether] it's true or false."
This is the bigger, more devious threat, what's known as the Liar's Dividend. The term, popular in deepfake-research circles, means the mere existence of deepfakes gives more credibility to denials. Essentially, deepfakes make it easier for candidates caught on tape to convince voters of their innocence -- even if they're guilty -- because people have learned they can't believe their eyes anymore.
[...] "I don't think anyone's going to see a piece of video content, real or fake, and suddenly change their vote on Election Day," said Clint Watts, distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who testified to Congress last year about deepfakes and national security. "Trying to convince people Joe Biden touches people too much or whatever....I don't see how people's opinions can be really shaped in this media environment with that."
What worries him more are deepfakes that undermine election integrity -- like an authoritative figure reporting misinformation about turnout, polling site disruptions or voting machines changing your ballot.
Another worry: Deepfakes could destabilize the vote on US soil by causing havoc at a US outpost abroad. Imagine a fake that triggers an attack like the one on the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012, which became a political flashpoint in the US. State actors like China or Russia, for example, could find an effective strategy in forged videos that endanger US soldiers or US diplomats, particularly in war-torn regions or countries ruled by a dictator, where populations are already struggling to separate truth from propaganda and rumor.
[...] No matter what form an election deepfake tries to take, the time to be on highest alert is right before you cast your vote.
"If it happens 48 hours out of the Election Day," Watts said, "we may not have a chance to fix it."
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