The 12% rise in UK retail spending should come with note of caution

Jump seems consistent with idea of V-shaped economic recovery but is too soon to tell

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On the face of it, the 12% jump in retail spending last month fits with the notion that the economy will bounce back quickly from Covid-19 once the lockdown restrictions are fully lifted.

May's rise occurred even before non-essential stores were allowed to start trading in some parts of the UK on 15 June, so the increase appears consistent with the idea of a V-shaped recovery: an initial fall as the country went into lockdown in late March; an 18% drop in April when the quarantining was at its most intense; then a much stronger pick-up than expected in May.

Retail sales account for only about a third of overall consumer spending