UK suffers record 9.9% slump; KPMG UK chair quits after 'stop moaning' comments –as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from Economics | The Guardian on 2021-02-12 16:18 (#5E3BC)

UK GDP shrank by 9.9% last year amid Covid-19 lockdowns, the worst since modern records began, and only beaten by the Great Frost of 1709

Earlier:

UK shrank 9.9% last year - worst on record"
But economy avoids double-dip recession with 1% growth in Q4
UK grew 1.2% in December.... but probably shrinking again now
BoE chief economist: economy is a coiled spring

4.18pm GMT

Right, that's all for this week - after a day in which the UK posted its worst annual slump in three centuries, but avoided sinking back into a double-dip recession.

Here are today's main stories:

4.10pm GMT

Rishi Sunak has chaired a meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs today, to discuss how to steer the world economy out of the coronavirus crisis.

In a statement, the Treasury says:

Chancellor Rishi Sunak set out his priorities for the year ahead which also include protecting jobs and supporting the global economic recovery, working to reach a global solution to the tax challenges created by digitalisation of the economy and providing necessary support for the world's most vulnerable countries.

Making progress on reaching an international solution to the tax challenges of the digital economy was noted as a key priority. The UK underlined our commitment to this issue, and called on the G7 to work together towards reaching an enduring multilateral solution by the mid-2021 deadline agreed by the G20.

Chancellor @RishiSunak today chaired the first meeting of the UK's @G7 presidency with finance ministers & central bank governors.
The UK highlighted global recovery, supporting vulnerable countries, digital taxation & climate change as priorities for the group in the year ahead.

3.53pm GMT

Despite Rishi Sunak's best efforts to point us towards nominal GDP, investors continue to conclude that the UK has performed worse than international peers.

Here's Rathbones' head of asset allocation research, Ed Smith, who also points out that the economy only grew last quarter because of government spending:

It only confirms what we already knew: that, on the first GDP estimates at least, the UK had the second worst economic outcome in 2020 out of the 42 countries we keep an eye on. Only Spain contracted by more.

The UK has also had the second worst health outcome, quantified by COVID deaths per capita. Together, this suggests the risks of long-term economic scarring are larger in the UK than many of its peers. Key sectors were already ailing before the pandemic, and there's evidence to suggest the UK may have a greater share of so-called zombie" companies (unprofitable enterprises propped up by extremely cheap financing). The private sector is more indebted than many countries too, which increases fragility and limits the bounce-back.

3.33pm GMT

Back in the City, the FTSE 100 is pushing higher as the end of the week approaches.

The blue-chip index is now up 39 points, or 0.6%, at 6568.

3.21pm GMT

American consumer confidence has taken a dip, highlighting the weak state of the US economy as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to rage.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to 76.2 this month, down from 79 in January, and weaker than the 80.8 which analysts expected.

U.S MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (FEB) ACTUAL: 76.2 VS 79.0 PREVIOUS; EST 80.8

U.S MICHIGAN CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (FEB) ACTUAL: 69.8 VS 74.0 PREVIOUS; EST 75.7

U.S MICHIGAN CURRENT CONDITIONS (FEB) ACTUAL: 86.2 VS 86.7 PREVIOUS; EST 88.0

University of Michigan measure of #consumer sentiment edged downward in early February, with the entire loss concentrated in expectations among households. Expectations of inflation, moreover, edged upwards. pic.twitter.com/KtVpCqQfKL

3.07pm GMT

The US stock market has opened cautiously, with investors keeping to the sidelines after driving stocks to record levels this week.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dipped by 44 points, or 0.14%, to 31,386, while the tech-focused Nasdaq is pretty much flat at 14,012.

2.32pm GMT

The ONS also flags up that the 1% growth in October-December was mainly driven by increases in the health and education industries.

Health experienced an increase of 12.4%, mainly because of the coronavirus testing and tracing schemes across the UK. Meanwhile, education increased by 5.6%, reflecting higher levels of school attendance in Quarter 4

Interesting note in the GDP release - well over half of the 1% growth in Q4 came from the test and trace scheme... pic.twitter.com/aIKnnPMhkt

2.31pm GMT

Today's GDP report also shows that UK business investment is around 10.3% below its level at the end of 2019, despite growing by 1.4% in the last quarter.

That indicates that (unsurprisingly) firms are focused on day-to-day survival rather than sinking capital into longer-term projects.

The latest Bank of England Decision Maker Panel reports that economic uncertainty remained high or very high for 68% of businesses, and remains much higher than 41% at the start of 2020, while investment remained 20% lower that would otherwise have been because of Covid-19."

2.17pm GMT

Three UK firms have told us about the pressures they've faced amid tougher restrictions at the start of this year, highlighting the need for more government support until the crisis over:

1.49pm GMT

Here's Anneliese Dodds MP, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, on the news that the UK economy shrank by a record 9.9% last year:

These figures confirm that not only has the UK had the worst death toll in Europe, we've experiencing the worst economic crisis of any major economy.

Businesses can't wait any longer. The Chancellor needs to come forward now with a plan to secure the economy in the months ahead, with support going hand-in-hand with health restrictions.

Today's GDP figures confirm we're experiencing the worst economic crisis of any major economy.

Britain can't wait until the Budget. The Chancellor must act now to protect jobs with smart furlough, help business with rates relief and VAT reduction, and support new job creation.

1.15pm GMT

The pound has taken the GDP report in its stride too.

It's currently trading around $1.38, not too far from the 33-month high ($1.386) hit this week.

The economy was adding in December despite record COVID-19 numbers. A separate report showed a 1.7% m/m growth in the service sector, the most vulnerable part of the economy during a lockdown.

The massive vaccine roll-out in January and the continued vaccination rate offers hope for an accelerated economic recovery.

The UK's GDP 9.9% fall in 2020 was the worst on record, but there are more positives in the quarterly and monthly data inside the reporthttps://t.co/aEgVg3CLbq pic.twitter.com/R9eb7J2OCq

1.12pm GMT

Economist Julian Jessop predicts a rapid pick-up in growth later this year:

FWIW, here are my latest UK #GDP forecasts (basically unchanged), incorporating today's numbers... pic.twitter.com/G18qYrcI8r

1.10pm GMT

The 2020 #UK #GDP numbers are out. They capture vividly the magnitude of the #Covid-related hits to the #economy.
At 9.9%, the 2020 economic contraction is the biggest since 1709.
The chart below, from @cnbc, places this large GDP fall in a broader historical context.#growth pic.twitter.com/TMyrcwB0dd

12.49pm GMT

The London stock market wasn't rocked by the news that the UK suffered its worst slump in three centuries last year.

The FTSE 100 index of leading blue-chip shares is up a modest 9 points, or 0.15%, at 6538, although travel companies and some UK-focused firms have dropped.

New figures from the ONS showed the extend of the damage on the UK economy in 2020 from coronavirus, causing many UK-focused companies to fall on the market on Friday despite these figures being backwards-looking. Retailer Next fell 1.6%, banking group Natwest retreated 1.4% and trainers-to-tracksuits seller JD Sports dipped 1.2%.

The UK economy shrank by 9.9% in 2020 but there was an improvement at the end of the year. The economy grew by a better than expected 1.2% in December, after shrinking by 2.3% in November, as some restrictions eased. The new lockdown that started at the end of December and is still ongoing will no doubt have caused the economy to wobble again.

12.22pm GMT

Charles Hepworth, Investment Director at GAM Investments, cautions that the UK economy may not roaring back' for a few months.

He also flags up that Brexit trade tensions also hit the economy at the end of last year:

The UK economy recorded a 1% advance in the fourth quarter of 2020 - better than expectations of 0.5% growth but don't get the celebrations started just yet. As a whole the UK economy collapsed by close to 10% over the course of 2020 which is among the worst of all G7 nations, reflective of the ravaging effects of lockdowns and the obvious trade tensions in the run up to the Brexit deadline last year.

It must come as some relief that the quarterly print was not negative as inevitably this current quarter will likely be, as that would have resulted in a double dip recession. We will need to see an end to lockdowns and restrictions before growth begins its natural ascendency.

Looking ahead, it seems that a double dip was merely delayed rather than avoided outright, with the ongoing restriction measures placing a firm dent in the UK's path to recovery.

The latest Cebr forecasts point to a 3.5% output fall in Q1 2021. Though this pales in comparison to the 19.0% contraction witnessed in Q2 2020, this would still amount to the second largest quarterly contraction since official records began, thus highlighting the potentially devastating economic impact of the third lockdown."

According to today's ONS figures, UK GDP contracted by 9.9 per cent in 2020, which is likely to be the largest annual fall among G7 countries last year. Economic growth slowed significantly, dropping from 16.1 per cent in the third quarter to 1 per cent in the last quarter of the year.

As a result, the level of GDP in the fourth quarter remained about 8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels even before a third lockdown became necessary in January 2021.

OUT NOW: Our latest #NIESRGDP Tracker suggests #GDPgrowth to decline by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2021 as stringent #COVID19 restrictions are expected remain elevated until early spring, along with the effects of post-#Brexit adjustment

More herehttps://t.co/aALR9QlCFI

12.09pm GMT

Lastminute.com has been threatened with legal action unless it speedily refunds customers whose holidays were cancelled due to the pandemic last year:

My colleague Mark Sweney reports:

The UK competition watchdog has said it will take legal action against Lastminute.com unless it pays more than 1m in refunds within the next seven days to customers it still owes for holidays cancelled because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In December, the flight and hotel booking site agreed to pay 7m in refunds by the end of January to more than 9,000 customers whose holidays were cancelled because of coronavirus, following an investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority.

11.50am GMT

In other news...mobile operator O2 has been fined 10.5m for overcharging 140,000 customers several million pounds, due to billing errors that persisted for almost a decade.

11.40am GMT

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has insisted that the UK didn't perform as badly against international peers as the headline GDP figures suggest.

He argues that the UK is very much in line' with the rest of the class, if you look at nominal GDP, and strip out the different ways the data is calculated (see previous post for my attempted explanation).

Britain's finance minister Rishi Sunak said the country's record 9.9% fall in GDP in 2020 was in line with other countries when measured on a comparable basis.

I think it's important to clear up this question of our comparative economic performance actually," he told UK broadcasters.

11.09am GMT

On paper, the UK economy suffered a worse slump than other advanced economies last year -- although it's been a bitterly tough year all round.

For example, according to official data, in 2020....

When the UK statistics agency says UK GDP isn't easy to compare internationally, here's a big reason why: it assumed the UK had *gigantic* inflation, because it adjusts for (mainly) hospital productivity, and other countries don't. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/M7XzzB0Rt3

Ignore that adjustment by looking at nominal GDP, and the UK is a bit worse due to all the bad things people keep burbling on about - more lockdowns, more deaths, a haircut-based economy - but nothing like so bad. (Note: Up to Q3 for Japan and eurozone, but you see the pattern) pic.twitter.com/FEQ3A4ckrh

10.31am GMT

Kit Juckes, foreign exchange expert at French bank Societe Generale, has delved into the history books too:

Even George Washington, born on February 22, 1732 wasn't around the last time Great Britain, as it was then, saw a bigger GDP decline than 2020's 9.9%.

This time it's a pandemic to blame whereas back then, it was a Great Frost, which saw ice in the North Sea, and the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714) which was doing the damage. There 13.4% fall in British GDP in 1709 was followed by a 9.1% fall in 1710 and overall, GDP was smaller in 1715 than it was before the start of the war. Fighting with continental neighbours is never good for the economy....

Last year was extraordinary but despite concerns about new variants of the virus and continued economic restrictions, consensus looks for a 4.6% rebound in 2021.

10.10am GMT

Here's a handy chart putting 2020's GDP slump in historical context, from the Independent's Ben Chu:

Latest official data confirms that UK economy contracted by 9.9% in 2020 - making it the worst year for the UK economy since 1709 pic.twitter.com/L5xSR2kp3z

10.09am GMT

The UK may avoid a double-dip recession (despite its worst year since Queen Anne was on the throne) but it won't feel like it to the millions suffering economic damage from the pandemic.

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, explains:

The fact that the economy expanded by 1.0% in the period between October and December means that the UK has avoided a double dip recession - two separate periods in which GDP contracts for at least two quarters.

But even if this is not a double dip recession it is going to feel like one, because the sharp slowdown in activity between the third and fourth quarters of 2020 will be followed by a big slump in output in the first three months of 2021. The fresh downturn could easily see output fall by a further 4%.

9.44am GMT

Britain's economy shrank by the most in 300 years in 2020 amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic but has avoided a double-dip recession, according to official figures, my colleague Richard Partington writes.

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 9.9% in 2020 as no sector of the economy was left unscathed by lockdowns and plummeting demand during the pandemic. It was the biggest fall in annual GDP since the Great Frost of 1709, when the economy shrank by 13%.

The UK economy has avoided a double-dip recession at the end of 2020, with growth of 1% in Q4.

However, for 2020 as a whole, the drop in GDP of 9.9% was the biggest fall in 300 years.

Looking at international comparisons the UK, US, Spain and Germany all avoided a double-dip recession in Q4 according to the ONS. But France and Italy both recorded negative growth. The level of GDP in each still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

9.26am GMT

KPMG's UK chairman, Bill Michael, has resigned after telling staff to stop moaning" during a virtual meeting about the coronavirus pandemic and the impact of lockdown on people's lives.

Michael, who has headed the company since 2017, was speaking at a virtual town hall meeting on Monday with members of the firm's financial services consulting team when he made the comments.

I love the firm and I am truly sorry that my words have caused hurt among my colleagues and for the impact the events of this week have had on them. In light of that, I regard my position as untenable and so I have decided to leave the firm. It has been a privilege to have acted as chair of KPMG. I feel hugely proud of all our people and the things they have achieved, particularly during these very challenging times."

KPMG's Bill Michael resigns after telling staff to 'stop moaning' https://t.co/TmFAto72Oc

9.24am GMT

The sudden end of Bill Michael's reign at KPMG UK is one of the more dramatic exits at UK PLC in recent years.

The Daily Telegraph has an interesting piece on his tenure, with insiders saying Michael had been sheltered from ad hoc public interactions to prevent him veering off-message (a mission which went awry this week...).

When Bill Michael ran for election as KPMG's chairman in the UK in 2017 some insiders jokingly referred to him as the Donald Trump candidate".

The 52-year-old Australian dismissed the moniker but his comments to staff this week raised parallels with the former US president, a noted opponent of coronavirus lockdowns and the woke" Left.

'A bomb waiting to go off' - Inside the chaos of KPMG under Bill Michael. Bust-ups, a leak investigation and how appearances were stage-managed to avoid him going off scripthttps://t.co/qMOWMvaXmE

9.01am GMT

Some snap reaction to Bill Michael's departure at KPMG:

KPMG has confirmed that its UK chair, Bill Michael, has resigned. It follows controversial comments he made to staff during a virtual meeting on Monday. Michael told employees unconscious bias is utter crap" and told them to stop moaning" over how lockdown had impacted them

Michael will leave KPMG at the end of the month. He said I love the firm and I am truly sorry that my words have caused hurt amongst my colleagues and for the impact the events of this week have had on them".

Incredible end to a scandal-ridden run for KPMG UK chairman Bill Michael

"I am truly sorry that my words have caused hurt amongst my colleagues and for the impact the events of this week have had on them"https://t.co/XBsCAyKow4 via @financialtimes

NEW: Chair of KPMG UK, Bill Michael, has quit after allegations he told a meeting of staff to stop moaning" & stop playing the victim card" about work conditions during the pandemic

He had COVID quite badly himself previously - & had stepped aside for an investigation

8.50am GMT

Newsflash: The UK chair of KPMG has resigned, days after telling staff to stop moaning" about work during the pandemic, and claiming the concept of unconscious bias was complete crap".

KPMG UK has announced that Bill Michael, its Chair and Senior Partner, has resigned and will leave the firm at the end of this month.

I love the firm and I am truly sorry that my words have caused hurt amongst my colleagues and for the impact the events of this week have had on them. In light of that, I regard my position as untenable and so I have decided to leave the firm. It has been a privilege to have acted as Chair of KPMG.

I feel hugely proud of all our people and the things they have achieved, particularly during these very challenging times."

Bill has made a huge contribution to our firm over the last thirty years, especially over the last three years as Chairman, and we wish him all the best for the future."

8.36am GMT

Every sector of the UK economy suffered an extremely sharp slump in output last year:

During 2020:

While the economy registered its sharpest annual contraction on record last year, activity was 6.3% below pre-pandemic levels in December - a better outcome than many had expected.

Stricter and more prolonged restrictions are likely to drive a further contraction in the first quarter before vaccinations and better weather enable a summer rebound. However, regaining lost activity due to the pandemic will take longer. We forecast UK GDP to reach pre-pandemic levels in spring 2022.

8.22am GMT

Economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon has shown how the UK has suffered a worst slump than other major economies last year:

The UK economy was the laggard in the G7 again in Q4, with GDP still 7.8% below its Q4 2019 peak, worse than the US (2.5%), Germany (3.9%), France (5.0%) and Italy (6.6%). No Q4 data for Canada or Japan yet, but they both already were faring much better than the UK in Q3. pic.twitter.com/b75NE4pfRP

The underperformance cannot simply be attributed to the different way the UK measures real government expenditure. Instead, household spending was the main driver of the relative weakness in Q3, and surely was again in Q4, as it fell by 0.2% q/q and was 8.4% below its peak. pic.twitter.com/BbRdexSImm

8.08am GMT

Economic research institute NIESR predicts the UK will suffer a sharp decline in activity' in the first three months of this year - until the Covid-19 vaccination programme spurs a recovery:

According to today's ONS figures, UK #GDP contracted by 9.9% in 2020, which is likely to be the largest annual fall among G7 countries last year. Economic #growth slowed significantly, dropping from 16.1% in the 3rd quarter to 1% in the last quarter of the year. As a result,

1/3

the level of GDP in the UK remained about 8% below pre-pandemic levels even before a third #lockdown became necessary in January 2021. With #COVID19 restrictions expected to remain elevated until early spring, we anticipate a sharp decline in activity during the first...

2/3

quarter of the year. Nevertheless, #growth will pick up from the second quarter onwards as #restrictions ease on the back of a successful #vaccination programme

Our #NIESRGDP Tracker analysis will be out shortly - Watch this page

3/3https://t.co/bZNRe8anIT

8.04am GMT

Here's Reuters' take:

Last year's fall in output was the biggest since modern official records began after World War Two, and longer-running historical data hosted by the Bank of England suggest it was the biggest drop since 1709.

The fall is also steeper than almost any other big economy, though Spain - also hard-hit by the virus - suffered an 11% decline.

8.00am GMT

Although the UK economy avoided a contraction in October-December, it is probably now shrinking due to the current lockdown restrictions.

Dean Turner, economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, explains:

In lockstep with much of continental Europe, the UK economy fared better than feared in the final quarter of 2020. GDP expanded by 1%, a significant slowdown from the 16% growth over the previous three months, but a contraction was avoided.

The monthly GDP series shows that the UK's dominant services sector returned to growth in December but this is unlikely to last. The tighter restrictions imposed towards the end of last year, which are likely to remain in place for much of the current quarter, suggest that the economy may shrink again. However, what is clear from the data is the resilience and adaptability of firms and households, so any contraction will be modest. As and when restrictions are eased, we continue to expect a vigorous rebound in the economy

7.56am GMT

Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, warns that the UK economy will continue to struggle until the pandemic is under control - and that means businesses need more help:

The UK economy grew slightly towards the end of the last year, as a second lockdown in November was partly offset by a pick-up in GDP over December. But with restrictions tightening again in the New Year, we'll likely see further dips in activity.

Getting the pandemic under control is critical to our recovery, and speedy rollout of vaccines gives us some hope. But until we can end the stop-start cycle of lockdowns, businesses will need support to continue in parallel with restrictions.

7.54am GMT

This chart of monthly changes in UK GDP would have seemed incomprehensible before the pandemic:

7.51am GMT

The recovery in December (GDP rose 1.2%) was mainly driven by service sector firms, as shops, food outlets and other hospitality firms reopened after the November lockdown.

Service sector output grew 1.7%, which still leaves it 6.9% below its pre-pandemic peak.

GDP grew 1.2% in December but remains 6.3% below its pre-crisis peak.

Services grew 1.7% (6.9% below peak)
Manufacturing grew 0.3% (3.4% below peak)
Construction fell 2.9% (3.4% below peak)https://t.co/C11VwDib9D pic.twitter.com/Zbjl2ZJsn8

7.32am GMT

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, says:

Today's figures show that the economy has experienced a serious shock as a result of the pandemic, which has been felt by countries around the world. While there are some positive signs of the economy's resilience over the winter, we know that the current lockdown continues to have a significant impact on many people and businesses.

That's why my focus remains fixed on doing everything we can to protect jobs, businesses and livelihoods.

7.30am GMT

This chart shows how the UK economy performed last year:

7.17am GMT

7.15am GMT

The UK has suffered its worst annual slump on record, with the economy contracting almost 10% last year amid the pandemic.

The Office for National Statistics reports that over the year 2020 as a whole, GDP contracted by 9.9%, marking the largest annual fall in UK GDP on record".

NEW: UK economy grew 1% in Q4 2020.
Total 2020 GDP was -9.9%.
This is the deepest fall since 1709 (-13.4%), though only just - it was -9.7% in 1921.
But I'd be a bit cautious abt those comparisons as 1) that historical data is v shaky and 2) 2020 may yet be revised up.

UK GDP FELL 9.9% IN 2020 - ONS

"Over the year 2020 as a whole, GDP contracted by 9.9%, marking the largest annual fall in UK GDP on record." - first official estimates for full year from Office for National Statistics.

7.06am GMT

The UK has avoided a double-dip recession.

GDP expanded by 1% in the final three months of 2020, the ONS reports -- better than the 0.5% growth which economists expected.

UK gdp up 1% in fourth quarter of 2020 - so no immediate chance of the dreaded double dip recession @BBCr4today #r4today

7.03am GMT

The GDP data is out.... and it shows that the UK economy grew by 1.2% in December.

That's a little stronger than forecast, showing that activity picked up after the second national lockdown, in November, ended.

GDP increased by 1.2% in December 2020 as restrictions were eased early in the month in many parts of the UK.

The largest contributor to this increase was accommodation and food service activities and other services, as the easing of restrictions across many parts of the UK in early December boosted demand for these consumer facing services. Health also contributed positively to growth in December 2020, as a result of increased activity, mainly due to the coronavirus testing and tracing schemes across the UK.

6.56am GMT

The Bank of England's chief economist has predicted that the UK economy will come roaring back this year, as lockdown measures are eased.

Andy Haldane argues that people will embark on a spending spree -- visiting pubs, cinemas and restaurants more often, and splashing out on a new TV, car or house.

So come the Spring, we can expect the UK economy to be firing on all three cylinders - households, companies and government.

While today the economy is shrinking and inflation is well below target, a year from now annual growth could be in double-digits and inflation back on target.

MAIL: UK's set to roar back #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/et8bdejxii

6.44am GMT

Good morning.
Today we discover how the UK economy fared in December, and learn just how much economic damage was caused by the pandemic last year.

The latest GDP data, due at 7am, are expected to show that the economy grew by 1% in December, with the reopening of shops after the November lockdown providing a pre-Christmas lift.

The preliminary reading of fourth quarter GDP will be published at 7am (UK time), economists are expecting to see 0.5% on a quarterly basis, which would be a big fall from the 16% growth registered in the third quarter.

Services account for approximately 70% of the UK's economic output. The services PMI levels in October, November and December were 51.4, 47.6 and 49.4 respectively. A reading below 50.0 means negative growth. It is clear the tougher restrictions that were introduced from November onwards dented the all-important industry. Given the uncertainty that existed in relation to the UK-EU trading relationship at the back end of 2020, there could have been stockpiling of goods.

It's finally Friday!!

Markets are, again, rather subdued across the board this morning, with the LNY holidays in Asia keeping things in check

UK Q4 GDP & UMich consumer sentiment highlight today's calendar, before we move into the long US weekend

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