UK steel nationalisation ‘least likely’ outcome; US consumer confidence dips – as it happened
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Latest: US home prices rose 13.2%/year in March
- But sales of new homes fell in April
Earlier:
- Business secretary: Liberty Steel crisis unlikely to mean nationalisation
- Kwasi Kwarteng: I'm vindicated over turning down 170m bailout
- UK goods trade with EU falls below non-EU countries
- Amigo share plunge after high court blocks compensation scheme
- Introduction: UK borrowed 31.7bn last month - second highest April ever
5.59pm BST
Time for a quick recap.
The UK government has insisted that nationalising UK steel assets is the least likely' result of the Liberty Steel crisis.
Related: Business secretary criticises financial engineering' at Liberty Steel
Related: UK government borrowing fell in April as Covid lockdown eased
Related: China replaces Germany as UK's biggest import market
Related: Amazon to stream major National Theatre plays in UK and Ireland
Related: Amigo Loans shares dive as high court rejects compensation cap
Related: UK shoppers return to supermarkets as online spending slows
Related: West End landlord Shaftesbury looks to summer revival as it reports 339m loss
Related: Drax carbon-capture plan could cost British households 500 - study
Related: Study suggests North sea green energy will overtake oil and gas by 2030
5.28pm BST
One late piece of news: Washington DC attorney general Karl Racine has announced he's suing Amazon on antitrust grounds.
The case claims the company's practices have unfairly raised prices for consumers and suppressed innovation, by refusing to allow third-party sellers on Amazon to offer lower prices on their own websites, or rival platforms.
Amazon has used its dominant position in the online retail market to win at all costs. It maximizes its profits at the expense of third-party sellers and consumers, while harming competition, stifling innovation, and illegally tilting the playing field in its favor,"
BREAKING: Today my office filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon for illegally abusing and maintaining its monopoly power by controlling prices across the online retail market and violating DC law.
For years, Amazon has controlled online retail prices through its restrictive contract provisions & policies. Amazon requires third-party sellers to agree that they won't offer their products anywhere else online - including their own websites - for a lower price than on Amazon.
These agreements also impose an artificially high price floor across the online retail marketplace & ensure high fees charged to third-party sellers by Amazon, as much as 40% of the product price, are incorporated into the price on not only Amazon but also on competing platforms.
Amazon has used its dominant position in the online retail market to win at all costs. It maximizes its profits at the expense of 3rd party sellers & consumers forced to pay artificially high prices, while harming competition & innovation & illegally tilting the playing field.
Amazon claimed it removed its price parity restrictions in 2019. But in fact, it quietly replaced the provision w/ an effectively-identical substitute that says third-party sellers can be sanctioned or removed from Amazon if they offer their products for lower prices elsewhere.
We filed this antitrust lawsuit to put an end to Amazon's illegal control of prices across the online retail market. We need a fair online marketplace that expands options available to District residents and promotes competition, innovation, and choice.
5.01pm BST
After a fairly quiet day, the UK's FTSE 100 blue-chip index has closed almost 22 points lower at 7029 points, down 0.3% today.
Oil companies Royal Dutch Shell (-2.5%) and BP (-2%) led the fallers, along with mining firms such as Anglo American (-2.3%), Glencore (-2%) and Antofagasta (-2%).
We are very cautious about iron ore prices and would suggest that current price levels are unsustainable. The increasing pressure on prices due to China's policy tightening and post-pandemic global economy impulse weakening will lead to market normalization in the next 1-2 years.
We use $80-100/t iron ore CFR China forecast in our models for 2022-23, which means a risk of a 50% decrease from the current levels.
European Closing Bell
FTSE 100 -0.34% at 7,028
STOXX 50 +0.34% at 4,040
DAX +0.17% at 15,464
CAC 40 -0.28% at 6,390
MIB +0.24% at 24,950
IBEX 35 +0.03% at 9,208
SMI +0.63% at 11,296
~ @Newsquawk
The prospect of low rates for longer is particularly supportive of high growth tech stocks.
Reining in inflation fears is not all about the Fed. China is playing its role too by adopting zero tolerance for excessive speculation in commodities. Persistently rising commodity prices have added to the market's runaway inflation fears. Seeing the price of commodities, such as base metals decline has helped ease those fears and boost risk appetite.
4.15pm BST
On Wall Street, the US stock market looks fairly calm today, as recent anxiety over inflation seems to recede.
3.56pm BST
May's US consumer confidence report shows clearly that optimism about the short-term outlook is waning somewhat this month, even though overall confidence levels remained little changed
It found that:
The percentage of US consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell from 33.1% to 30.3%, while the proportion expecting business conditions to worsen rose from 12.1% to 14.8%.
Consumers were also less upbeat about the job market. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead fell from 31.% to 27.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose from 14.4% last month to 17.3% in May.
One yr consumer inflation expectations in the Conf Bd Consumer Confidence index rises to match 10 yr high outside of the June 2020 supermarket driven spike. pic.twitter.com/7uSG4rMJdE
3.48pm BST
Consumer confidence was little changed, edging down from 117.5 in April to 117.2 in May, according to the Conference Board, with sentiment continuing to be close to the highest readings since the pandemic began. pic.twitter.com/EfkIsUVl2L
3.42pm BST
US consumer confidence has dropped for the first time this year, as Americans grow less optimistic about the economic outlook, and their job prospects.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has dipped to 117.2 in May, down from the 117.5 recorded in April.
Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions improved, suggesting economic growth remains robust in Q2. However, consumers' short-term optimism retreated, prompted by expectations of decelerating growth and softening labor market conditions in the months ahead.
Consumers were also less upbeat this month about their income prospects-a reflection, perhaps, of both rising inflation expectations and a waning of further government support until expanded Child Tax Credit payments begin reaching parents in July.
Consumer Confidence holds steady, but Americans' expectations for jobs and income dropped in the survey. This seems to add fuel to the jobs market stumble in April, and barriers people are seeing in taking jobs - including finding a job with good pay and enough hours.
OOPS! US consumer confidence fell in May for 1st time this year. pic.twitter.com/0EDZQbTvDe
3.22pm BST
Sales of new family homes in the US fell last month - perhaps a sign that the surge in prices over the last year is now biting.
New single family homes sales dropped by 5.9% in April, compared with March, to an annual rate of 863,000 in April, the Census Bureau reports.
New Home Sales Decrease to 863,000 Annual Rate in April https://t.co/Nvi9cVuA75 pic.twitter.com/85a9Z0bANP
April new home sales weaker at -5.9% vs. -7% est. & +7.4% in prior month; note massive revision to prior month, which was previously at +20.7% ... overall level remains broadly unchanged over last year; median new home price rose +20.1% y/y pic.twitter.com/2At2yZoCeA
High #lumber prices look to be finally taking a toll on #newhomesales . pic.twitter.com/e4VpvePJ1F
Real estate news: New Home Sales numbers down over the last month - due to pricing and material costs. Interest rates still easing downward a bit pic.twitter.com/LwzcoeF3vU
2.33pm BST
In the US, house price inflation has hit a new 15-year high, as the shortage of properties and pressure to move to the suburbs drives prices to record levels.
Home prices in March were 13.2% higher than a year ago (early in the pandemic), according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
The housing boom continues with US Home Prices hitting all-time highs again, up 13% over the past year. This is the highest rate of increase since 2005. pic.twitter.com/xczUrKj6wI
These data are consistent with the hypothesis that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes.
This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question.
US home prices rose +13.19% for March, biggest jump since pre-Global Financial Crisis. That might stoke some bubble fears, but remember this was caused by migration to the burbs, not by excessive risk-taking in MBS.
Today's S&P Case Shiller Index showed that home prices accelerated in March 2021, with a 13.2% yearly gain, as buyers engaged in bidding wars on a dwindling supply of #homes for sale in an effort to beat rising mortgage rates." @GeorgeRatiu pic.twitter.com/hECdzOZAbv
US house prices rose 1.6% m/m in March and the housing market is quite hot at the moment.
The Fed may taper MBS buying faster/earlier (or both) compared to Treasuries. pic.twitter.com/LDxByzsZVJ
2.07pm BST
Three important energy and climate change stories today:
Related: Drax carbon-capture plan could cost British households 500 - study
Related: Study suggests North sea green energy will overtake oil and gas by 2030
Related: British banks finance 805m tonnes of CO2 production a year
2.07pm BST
After a very bruising pandemic, London property landlord Shaftsbury is hoping that the reopening of the economy will lift its fortunes.
With central London emptied of shoppers and tourists during successive Covid-19 lockdowns, Shaftesbury collected only 43% of rent due from its retail, restaurant, bar and office tenants. It raised 307m from shareholders in November to get through the crisis.
However, vacancy rates improved to 11.3% in the past six weeks from 11.9% on 31 March. The company said almost all hospitality, leisure and retail tenants had reopened, and visitor numbers are back at 45% of pre-pandemic levels across the West End.
Related: West End landlord Shaftesbury looks to summer revival as it reports 339m loss
It could be another three years until London's West End enjoys a full recovery in international tourism, according to the boss of one of the area's largest landlords.
People have accepted that international tourism is not going to come back this year or perhaps even next. It could be 2024 before it gets back to 2019 levels," said Brian Bickell, chief executive of Shaftesbury, which owns chunks of Carnaby Street, Chinatown and Soho.
1.29pm BST
After a reopening boom in April, UK retailers say that sales returned to normal this month.
Slightly more retailers said that sales were lower than an average May than higher, according to the Confederation of British Industry's monthly survey of the sector
Retailers reported sales volumes as being broadly average for the time of year in May, and they expect volumes to remain in line with seasonal norms next month. #DTS pic.twitter.com/t7QRuVY8MS
The fact that sales were in line with seasonal norms is a definite improvement from earlier in the year, but this month's survey was perhaps a touch disappointing after April's stronger results.
Some retailers have suggested the increase in demand after the initial reopening of non-essential retail in early April was either short-lived or less strong than expected. And non-store sales remain well above seasonal norms, suggesting that some consumers who migrated to online shopping during the pandemic have not fully shifted back to old habits.
Investment intentions for the year ahead grew at the fastest pace since February 1994. #DTS pic.twitter.com/gXQiCWW9j9
However, employment continued to fall across the retail sector in the year to May, with a similar decline expected next month. #DTS pic.twitter.com/dtwQFYMMU8
1.13pm BST
MPs also heard from the steel industry today, with UK Steel director-general Gareth Stace giving a reality check on the greener technologies to clean up steel:
.@UKSteel__ DG Gareth Stace offers a reality check on decarbonising British steel industry: "Carbon capture & storage are largely untested at scale & zero-carbon hydrogen is a long way off... we haven't even taken the first step"
Gareth Stace @UKSteel__ "I feel like a broken record... Government attention only looks at us when there is a crisis, but we can compete globally and we are an enabling industry"
In @CommonsBEIS inquiry @UKSteel__'s Gareth Stace rightly notes that the Government keeps acknowledging it should do something about the sky-high industrial energy prices facing our steel sector but we need meaningful action not words.
Spot on from @CommunityUnion's @Roy_Rickhuss in @CommonsBEIS inquiry highlighting how our superb steel workforce has risen to the challenges & changes the sector has faced over the years and rightly calling for leadership from government & employers to help the sector thrive.
1.10pm BST
Actually, the issue of blue or green hydrogen has been bubbling for a while.
Earlier this year, climate activists said that the UK government should focus on the green option (electrolysis of water) rather than plumping for the blue one (splitting natural gas), as it would keep the country addicted to fossil fuels.
Related: First UK homes with hydrogen boilers and hobs to be built by April
Related: Hydrogen fuel bubbles up the agenda as investments rocket
12.38pm BST
Q: Are we behind the curve on hydrogen steel compared to Europe, where there are 23 projects underway?
Kwasi Kwarteng insisted that the UK is up to speed on hydrogen, and has a hydrogen strategy coming out.
12.16pm BST
Q: Is the government's decarbonisation strategy inconsistent with continuing to produce ore-based steel?
Secretary of state Kwasi Kwarteng says the government is aiming for an 80% reduction in UK carbon emissions by 2035 (as Boris Johnson committed last month)
12.06pm BST
Kwasi Kwarteng is also asked about how he can square the issue of supporting steel firms move to green' steel, while not using subsidies to prop up unsustainable companies.
Kwarteng says the government has a strategic interest' in maintaining steel, like all G7 nations, so once you're committed you need to provide support when the market turns against it.
11.55am BST
Kwasi Kwarteng also points out there is a global glut in steel worldwide, putting the UK at risk to dumping and price under-cutting.
It's a problem faced by factories in the US and Europe too, which is why they have tariffs and safeguards in place.
11.48am BST
Q: As UK steel is a strategic sector, is nationalisation a viable business option, asks Labour MP Charlotte Nichols.
Kwasi Kwarteng says he looks at all options. But nationalisation is an extreme occurrence that is unlikely to happen.
Central point from @KwasiKwarteng re support for steel industry: "Government support is conditional on decarbonisation and green steel". Says that offers a chance for a "more sustainable future"
11.40am BST
Alexander Stafford, MP for Rother Valley, who has many steel workers in his constituency, asks how viable Liberty Steel's sites are in the UK.
Kwasi Kwarteng says the GFG's assets being put for sale (including the aerospace steel business in Stocksbridge, Yorkshire) are fundamentally good assets with skilled, dedicated workers and very experienced managers.
11.30am BST
Q: GFG Alliance have received many loans, grants and guarantees from other governments and agencies, including in Scotland, Wales, Italy, France and Australia -- why do other politicians fall over themselves to give this man (Sanjeev Gupta) so much money?
Kwasi Kwarteng says the Scottish government are very exposed and have given millions to Gupta's group (including a 7m loan which, the FT reports was transferred elsewhere in GFG).
11.18am BST
Conservative MP Richard Fuller probes Kwasi Kwarteng about the Bank of England's concerns over Sanjeev Gupta's Wyeland's Bank.
Q: Yesterday, the Bank of England governor said it began its first investigation into Wyelands in Q1 2019. GFG bought the UK arm of Nigerian bank Diamond in April 2019 - why was that permitted?
11.11am BST
Q: Will the UK steel assets being sold by GFG Alliance actually let it repay Credit Suisse the 1.2bn it owes in full, and complete the refinancing of its operations?
Kwarteng says it depends on the terms of the loan. It may not be due immediately, and in any case it could be restructured to be repaid over a longer time. The government are monitoring the situation very closely.
11.07am BST
.@KwasiKwarteng defends Covid loans made to Gupta bank Wyelands, subsequently subject of concerns at @bankofengland: "When these loans were made there were not concerns about this particular bank... the British Business Bank was under a lot of pressure distribute loans"
11.04am BST
Q: Are there any lessons for the British Business Bank to learn from the loans approved to Liberty Steel?
Kwasi Kwarteng says there are. He says the government wanted to keep liquidity going, and businesses going, by accrediting firms so they could borrow from banks to keep afloat through the crisis.
10.56am BST
Kwasi Kwarteng, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, is testifying to the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee on its inquiry into the Liberty Steel crisis, and the future of UK steel.
BEIS are investigating why the steel industry moves from crisis to crisis, and also the role of collapsed supply chain finance firm Greensill Capital in the crisis at Sanjeev Gupta's GFG Alliance.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has just revealed that the Bank's Prudential Regulatory Authority notified the National Crime Agency of concerns about Sanjeev Gupta's Wyelands Bank in the autumn of 2019 and the Serious Fraud Office in February 2020.
It was this opacity over their corporate governance, this difficulty to understand the actual full nature of their businesses, that prevented me and my officials from giving them taxpayers' money.
Dare I say it, we were vindicated in our approach.
Today at 10:30am we're looking into Liberty Steel & the future of the UK steel industry, with questions to:
Panel 1: @KwasiKwarteng
Panel 2: @worldsteel, @UKSteel__ , @CommunityUnion, @rozbulleid, @MrChrisMcDonald.
https://t.co/BAXznyVPxw
https://t.co/viQAvj5T0K
10.26am BST
The slump in UK-EU goods trade this year shows the impact of Brexit, says John Springford of the Centre for European Reform:
The ONS: trade in goods with the EU down 23% in the first quarter of 2021, compared to the first quarter of 2018.
That accords with my estimate - Brexit has reduce total UK trade by 11% (both with EU and the rest of the world). https://t.co/CYPrlKdVPm pic.twitter.com/h0cSfAdTTs
New @ons trade data is out. First quarter after the end of the #Brexit transition trade with the EU is down 23.1%, with the rest of the world only 0.8%. It will always be debated how much of this is due to Brexit or Covid, but the difference is strikinghttps://t.co/b10MDGFUGa pic.twitter.com/JXEhsh79Kk
All entirely predictable and predicted except by those whose self professed love of free trade doesn't include the EU. Increased trade barriers decrease trade. https://t.co/ACk36g0zRa pic.twitter.com/VKjBQZKWQG
10.06am BST
The UK's total trade in goods with the European Union has fallen below its trade with the rest of the world, following Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Total trade in goods with EU countries fell by over 23% in January-March 2021, compared to the same period in 2018, while goods trade with non-EU countries only declined by 0.8%, a new report from the Office for National Statistic shows.
We have seen trade with non-EU countries overtake trade with EU countries for the first time in Quarter 1 2021. However, trade was already at depressed levels because of the ongoing pandemic and recession.
It is therefore too early to assess the extent to which the transition period reflects short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments.
The impacts of EU exit and the coronavirus on UK trade in goods - from @ONS
Conclusion?
"too early to assess"https://t.co/B2myoxrwt8 pic.twitter.com/QtA8Bveaun
9.34am BST
Back on April's UK borrowing figures, Alison Ring, ICAEW public sector director, points out that there are many tough challenges ahead - including drawing up a plan for social care.
It is difficult to read too much into the first month's numbers in a new financial year, but the Chancellor is likely to be relieved that the gap between receipts and spending is narrower than that seen last year during the first lockdown. But the public finances are not out of the woods, with tax receipts still below pre-pandemic levels and COVID-related spending continuing to drive up borrowing.
The focus over the next few months is likely to be on the next Spending Review, which will decide on future public spending and investment with the long-awaited social care funding strategy now anticipated to be announced later this year. However, the need to address the long-term unsustainability of the public finances shouldn't be forgotten.
Related: Anger over failure in Queen's speech to set out social care plans
9.26am BST
Germany's economy shrank by more than expected in the latest lockdown.... but optimism about the recovery is also rising.
German GDP fell by 1.8% in January-March, revised data shows, down from the first estimate of a 1.7% contraction, as Europe's largest economy was hit by the winter wave of Covid-19 cases.
#Germany's Q1 #GDP growth revised down 0.1% to -1.8% QoQ. #lockdown pic.twitter.com/Dfi36E8iSz
Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They are also more optimistic regarding the coming months. The German economy is picking up speed.
Germany's GDP falls by -1.8% QoQ in Q1, more than expected -1,7% but business morale improves a lot, with Ifo Business Climate Index rising to 99.2 in May, from previous 96.6 and more than expected 98.2@graemewearden
9.13am BST
In the City, shares in the UK sub-prime lender Amigo have halved this morning after the high court refused to approve a controversial proposal to cap customer compensation claims.
Amigo tumbled as much as 55%, falling to 8.3p, after judge Mr Justice Miles issued a ruling stating that he was not satisfied that the court should sanction the scheme". The latest sharp share price declines come after heavy losses last week.
Related: FCA under pressure to explain green light for sub-prime lender's rescue plan
Related: Amigo Loans rescue in doubt after FCA says it will object in court
I understand why the directors have sought to find a way of addressing the potentially unsustainable level of redress claims,"
Some form of restructuring of the group is clearly desirable and indeed needed. But the question is whether, in all the circumstances, this scheme should be approved. I have accepted the submissions of the Financial Conduct Authority that the redress creditors lacked the necessary information or experience to enable them properly to appreciate the alternative options reasonably available to them; or to understand the basis on which they were being asked by Amigo to sacrifice the great bulk of their redress claims, while the Amigo shareholders were to be allowed to retain their stake."
Amigo is incredibly disappointed that the Scheme has not been approved despite the 74,877 customers who voted in support of the Scheme, representing over 95% of those who voted. We are currently reviewing all our options and will provide an update at the earliest opportunity."
8.53am BST
The drop in UK borrowing in April shows that the chancellor will have more room to manoeuvre' than expected when drawing up the autumn budget, says Resolution Foundation, the think tank.
They point out that the priority is to deliver a rapid recovery', with low government borrowing costs meaning less pressure to tighten policy.
This months @ONS public finance data provides us with the first month of the FYE 2021-22.
Despite continued high levels of borrowing, today's data continue the run of better news on the public finances with borrowing much lower than the OBR forecast in March. Short thread... pic.twitter.com/PfpNQLF2JC
Debt to GDP in April was 98.5 per cent - the highest ratio since March 1962.
In March, the OBR had expected it to continue to rise to 107.4 per cent of GDP this year but that level now looks set to be lower. pic.twitter.com/pJKVTHqy0p
Better-than-forecast fiscal outturns mean the Chancellor has more room for manoeuvre in the Autumn.
First priority should be driving a rapid recovery which could well take more policy. For more on how to do that, see: https://t.co/ZxygVFqAFM
Ultimately tax will need to rise to repair the damage to the public finances. But the extent of any consolidation hinges on economic scarring.
There are risks on either side with the BoE estimates less than half the OBR's but the OBR tending to be too optimistic about deficits.
Either way, despite rising somewhat in recent months, yields remain low - so the Chancellor is not under immediate pressure to tighten policy.
All this means there should be room for him to do more at the Autumn Budget to drive a rapid recovery. pic.twitter.com/dYZixCFmAN
8.52am BST
On the public finance figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says:
At the Budget, I set out the steps we are taking to keep the public finances on a sustainable footing by bringing debt under control over the medium term.
But we also need to focus on driving a strong economy recovery from the pandemic. That is why the Government is continuing a comprehensive package of support to help businesses and workers get back on their feet - and the evidence shows that our Plan for Jobs is working."
Related: Rishi Sunak flags tax rises in budget as total Covid spending tops 400bn
Related: Rishi Sunak digs in for battle against financial cost of Covid
8.29am BST
Isabel Stockton, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, points out that the UK economy is now expected to recover faster than expected at March's budget.
That would boost the public finances - as a smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment and higher-than-expected tax receipts would lead to less borrowing.
Borrowing in April 2021 was the second highest on record, coming in below the April record that was set last year. This means that borrowing over the last twelve months is now falling rather than rising. But at an estimated 32 billion April's borrowing was still 21 billion above - or almost three times bigger - than the 11 billion borrowed in April 2019.
How quickly it comes down will be mainly driven by how swiftly, and how fully, the economy recovers as the lockdown eases. Growth prospects for 2021 have increased materially in recent months which, if realised, should deliver greater tax revenues in the current financial year. The average of recently made forecasts for the growth this year now stands at 6.5% which is considerably higher than the 4.0% that the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast used in the March Budget."
Related: UK set for strongest economic growth since WWII, forecasts Bank of England
8.17am BST
Howard Archer of EY Item Club flags up that government income rose last month as non-essential shops and hospitality firms reopened - which helped to pull down borrowing.
Central government receipts rose 7.0% year-on-year in April. VAT receipts were up 8.8% year-on-year. VAT receipts are currently being limited by the temporary VAT cut - from 20% to 5% - for the hospitality and leisure sectors, while non-essential retailers were closed until 12 April. By contrast, non-essential retailers were closed throughout April 2020. Income and capital gains tax receipts rose 31.1% year-on-year in April, as earnings have increased recently.
Meanwhile, central government expenditure dipped 11.9% year-on-year in April but was still at an elevated level amid government measures to support the economy, businesses and jobs in the face of the pandemic.
8.09am BST
Economist Andrew Sentance says the UK economy is recovering fast than expected earlier this year:
UK public borrowing in April is now estimated at 31.7bn, about 20 percent below #OBR projection of 39bn. More evidence that the economy is bouncing back from lockdown more quickly than expected earlier this year.
Time to lift the threat of higher U.K. taxes. April numbers show extra state borrowing down on last year even before full recovery is underway. More growth is the way to get the deficit down. Official forecasts of new debt are too pessimistic.
8.03am BST
April's public finances figures show that the government's financial position isn't as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted only two months ago, says Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics.
And that means that the tax hikes and spending cuts that most fear may be avoided, she predicts, if stronger growth improves the public finances.
The estimated 93bn (4.1% of GDP) worth of COVID-19 government support in 2021/22 should keep public borrowing elevated in 2021/22.
But we have been saying since the end of last year that rapid economic growth would quickly improve the outlook for the public finances. That means the Chancellor may be spared having to implement his proposed tax hikes/spending cuts before the 2024 general election.
The Office for Budget Responsibility expect the public sector to borrow (PSNB ex) 233.9 bn in 2021/22, 66.4 billion less than ONS' provisional estimate for borrowing in 2020/21. https://t.co/TzFjVCPvYO pic.twitter.com/JKZBRyZC2s
7.34am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Britain's borrowing hit its second highest level for an April ever, as the cost of tackling the Covid-19 pandemic and protecting the economy continues to rise.
The 300.3 bn borrowed (PSNB ex) in 2020/21 was nearly double that in 2009/10 at the height of the financial crises. Borrowing makes up the shortfall between spending by the government and other public sector organisations and its income such as taxes. https://t.co/3DPNoEVF87 pic.twitter.com/hLI0Bu6C9h
UK borrowing (PSNB ex) was 14.3 % of GDP in 2020/21, revised down by 0.2 percentage points from last month's first estimate but still the highest borrowing to GDP ratio since the end of World War II (15.2% in 1945/46) https://t.co/Cm0uyA1Su2 pic.twitter.com/NUptfvx3Ak
This cost includes the expenditure by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), devolved administrations, and other departments in response to the coronavirus pandemic, including the NHS Test and Trace programme and the cost of vaccines.
In April the government spent 3.0 billion on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and 2.5 billion on the Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS).
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