Chatham House Finds Huge Swaths of Settled Land Will be Uninhabitable by 2040
Anonymous Coward writes:
Chatham House's Climate Change Risk Asessment 2021:
If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs, there is a less than five per cent chance of keeping temperatures well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and less than one per cent chance of reaching the 1.5C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
[...] Unless NDCs are dramatically increased, and policy and delivery mechanisms are commensurately revised, many of the impacts described in this research paper are likely to be locked in by 2040 and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.
[...] If emissions do not come down drastically before 2030, then by 2040 some 3.9 billion people are likely to experience major heatwaves, 12 times more than the historic average. By the 2030s, 400 million people globally each year are likely to be exposed to temperatures exceeding the workability threshold. Also by the 2030s, the number of people on the planet exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold is likely to surpass 10 million a year.
To meet global demand, agriculture will need to produce almost 50 per cent more food by 2050. However, yields could decline by 30 per cent in the absence of dramatic emissions reductions. By 2040, the average proportion of global cropland affected by severe drought will likely rise to 32 per cent a year, more than three times the historic average.
Download the full report (pdf).
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