UK recessions risks on the rise; global trade hit; Russia edging closer to default – as it happened

Rollng coverage of the latest economic and financial news

• Deutsche Bank: UK recession risks remain on the rise
• World trade fell 2.8% in March as Russian imports/exports tumble
• Russia nearer default after paying dollar debt in roubles
• UK building firms hit by rising prices
• Petrol and diesel rose at fastest since at least 2000 last month
• National insurance rates rise today, raising tax on workers and firms

German factory orders have fallen for the first time in four months, highlighting concerns that Europe's largest economy could be slowing.

Orders at German manufacturers dropped by 2.2% in February, in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (on 24th Febrary).

Companies including BMW, BASF and ThyssenKrupp have already warned that their earnings will slip. On Monday, Deutsche Bank chief executive Officer Christian Sewing said a recession would presumably be inevitable" if Germany was cut off from deliveries of Russian oil and natural gas.

Before the invasion, the economy had been grappling with the latest wave of the pandemic. Restrictions have now been loosened, though the caseload remains elevated and Health Minster Karl Lauterbach has urged citizens to remain cautious.