Disentangling the Facts from the Hype of Quantum Computing

upstart writes:

An IEEE Spectrum opinion piece on the current state of quantum computing:

Over the past five years, there has been undeniable hype around quantum computing-hype around approaches, timelines, applications, and more. As far back as 2017, vendors were claiming the commercialization of the technology was just a couple of years away-like the announcement of a 5,000-qubit system by 2020 (which didn't happen). There was even what I'd call antihype, with some questioning if quantum computers would materialize at all (I hope they end up being wrong).

More recently, companies have shifted their timelines from a few years to a decade, but they continue to release road maps showing commercially viable systems as early as 2029. And these hype-fueled expectations are becoming institutionalized: The Department of Homeland Security even released a road map to protect against the threats of quantum computing, in an effort to help institutions transition to new security systems. This creates an "adopt or you'll fall behind" mentality for both quantum-computing applications and postquantum cryptography security.

[...] In my opinion, quantum practicality is likely still 10 to 15 years away. However, progress toward that goal is not just steady; it's accelerating. That's the same thing we saw with Moore's Law and semiconductor evolution: The more we discover, the faster we go. Semiconductor technology has taken decades to progress to its current state, accelerating at each turn. We expect similar advancement with quantum computing.

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