Democrats will struggle to keep control of Congress in midterms, expert says

Ray Fair's latest analysis suggests Democrats will get 46.7% of the national vote - and he usually comes within 3% of the final tally

Since 1978 Ray Fair, professor of Economics at Yale University, has been using economic data to predict US election outcomes. His bare-boned, strictly by the numbers approach has a fairly impressive record, usually coming within 3% of the final tally.

Sadly for Democrats - if Fair's on track again this time - the Biden administration will struggle to keep control of Congress in November's crucial midterm elections.