UK may avoid 2022 recession after growing 0.1% in November – as it happened

UK economy beat forecasts with 0.1% growth in November, as food and drink businesses benefited from the FIFA World Cup

• UK economy grew by only 0.1% in November
• The UK may avoid a recession for now but it won't feel like it for many

Capital Economics' senior UK economist, Ruth Gregory, says the UK may avoid a recession in 2022, thanks to the undeniably encouraging" news that the economy grew slightly in November.

The small 0.1% month-on-month gain in real GDP in November suggests the economy was not as weak in Q4 as we had previously thought", Gregory says. But 2023 will still be tough, she adds:

But even if the economy does a bit better than expected in Q4, it is at best stagnating.

And it is too soon to conclude the economy will be able to get through this period of high interest rates and high inflation largely unscathed. We still think a recession is on its way in the first half of 2023.

If all else is equal, so no revisions to earlier months, for quarter four to be negative the economy has to fall by at least 0.6% [in December].