Rethinking ST3 in the Covid Era

Like many people in the Puget Sound region, Covid has changed my commute patterns and my use of transit. As a result - and perhaps not surprisingly - my posting here has gone down dramatically as well. But one thing I have been thinking quite a bit about is how the ST3 package could pivot for the post-Covid era. While the world has changed permanently, Sound Transit still seems to be planning for an era that is unlikely to ever arrive.

Outside the US, transit ridership is rebounding. Maybe not all the way back to pre-Covid levels, but in many places where transit has always been integrated into daily life, ridership is approaching a sustainable new normal." Domestically, transit ridership has rebounded to varying degrees, with commuter-focused services seeing the smallest return of riders. So how does this relate to ST3?

Cast your mind back to the Summer of 2021. Vaccines were finally available en masse (for adults, at least). There was optimism that some kind of normal might be around the corner. This is the time when companies were still putting out return to office" dates. Against this backdrop, Sound Transit engaged in realignment planning. While Covid may have been the initial impetus for hitting pause on the projects, the main problem was surging construction costs that put many ST3 projects over budget.

Nonetheless, the realignment proceeded, and, thanks to surging tax revenues and federal relief dollars, the board was able to create a plan that pushed around the delivery schedule on many projects but didn't fundamentally rethink any of the projects on the table.

Then, that winter, Omicron happened. That was the end of the line for a return to normal." As a regional agency, Sound Transit has always had a long-distance commuter bias, which leaves it uniquely exposed to the changes noted above. Yet, the agency hasn't really had an intentional, open, and honest conversation about how the transformational ST3 package of projects approved in 2016 should pivot to make sense in this new reality. If we continue to press ahead without adjustments, the agency risks building wrong-sized projects that meet the travel patterns and needs of 2016, not 2023 and beyond. This is a case where the sooner Sound Transit has this conversation - the better positioned it will be to proactively pivot and deliver better projects at lower cost.

So how should Sound Transit respond? I have some specific ideas which I'd like to save for another post. In the meantime, I'd like to start by outlining some principles that I think should guide this work:

• Respond to the new transit ridership market - Shift investments to increase or better serve the transit ridership markets that have shown to have resilient in-person" presence. This means less of an emphasis on major office employment centers and an increased emphasis on in-person job markets, lower-income communities, dense urban areas, medical centers, schools and universities, cultural and event centers, tourist and convention areas, and other secondary urban centers that continue to grow with in-person uses.
• Focus on frequent service, not commuter service - Refocus and adapt services and investments to focus into frequent all-day services that can be used for all-types of trips. Consolidate or end commuter only services and investments. Long-distance commuting into Seattle and Bellevue are the least likely to fully recover.
• Less intense peak periods are an opportunity - Rightsize projects for lower peak period ridership and pivot to reflect the need for more frequent, all-day service by leveraging automation trends in light rail like Vancouver's Skytrain. The downtown rush hour that we knew is over. Skytrain is a winning model that is perfect for providing frequent all-day service and provides opportunities because of smaller stations. How might we incorporate more of it?
• Re-invest in existing assets that no longer match their need - From huge park-and-rides that are now half-full to HOV lanes that are more reliable, how can these resources be best used?

Agree? Disagree? Leave your thoughts in the comments.