UK can expect year of stagnation after narrowest of escapes from recession

Marginal expansions and contractions in 2023 will do little to solve a lack of investment and export shortfall

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It was a recession in all but name: that is the conclusion of many economists who argue that while the official data shows the UK economy stood still in the last three months of 2022 rather than contracting, it is still in bad shape.

To be precise, the economy actually expanded by 0.01% in the fourth quarter, an increase so statistically insignificant that it is rounded down to zero. Had Britain not added just 77m to its 2.2tn gross domestic product (GDP) then it would have fallen into a technical recession, characterised by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.