So things are getting better – but it’s no thanks to the Bank of England

Governor Andrew Bailey has had to accept that the economy is resilient, but he'll still find reasons to keep interest rates high

From the fog of contradictory economic data over recent months comes a sense of direction. Suddenly, there is no more talk of recession, even as business surveys show firms doing OK. Instead, the picture is clear and there is no doubt the economy is growing again.

A slump that was supposed send the economy backwards in the first half of this year has vanished, notwithstanding worries about a global banking meltdown and credit crunch. That leaves predictions of a decline in economic activity being replaced by an expansion during the second, third and fourth quarters of 2023. It's quite a turnaround.