Inflation is expected to fall but Bank of England’s rate call is finely balanced

Hopes for a drop in the headline rate are pinned on lower oil and gas prices, but it could still go the other way

For months there has been hope that inflation might come tumbling down from its highest rate in 40 years. In search of an elusive peak, and despite having already made several wrong calls, some forecasters are suggesting that a rapid decline is all but guaranteed".

This week will put those expectations to the test, with the publication of a range of economic data that will influence the Bank of England as it considers whether to hit the pause button on its most aggressive policy of interest rate rises in decades.