UK property market lacks spring bounce but a crash is unlikely | Larry Elliott

It's reasonable to expect a fall in nominal house prices of at least 10%. That's a chunky fall - and a welcome one

April is supposed to herald the start of a British ritual: the house-buying season. Traditionally, it is the time when demand for homes picks up and the property supplements in the weekend papers are full of suggestions for sellers bidding to attract the interest of buyers.

But not this year. According to the latest bulletin from the Bank of England, repayments on existing mortgages in April were 1.4bn higher than new loans. This is unusual. Apart from during lockdown, it was the lowest figure since records began in 1993. The number of new mortgage approvals - loans agreed but not yet advanced - fell in April and were well below the average in the five years leading up to the pandemic.