90% Prediction Accuracy
by Brian Wang from NextBigFuture.com on (#6C9Z7)
Brian Wang's public prediction track record at Metaculus is a Brier Score of 0.079 which is about 90% correct predictions. Brier score is a distance from 100% accuracy. Brier Score evaluates the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. If you predict that the event A will occur with a probability of 100%, and the event occurs then ...