If you think the UK’s rising cycle of inflation has run its course, think again | Adam Posen

Optimistic forecasts based on comparisons with the US or eurozone ignore the unique dynamics of British inflation

Core inflation in the UK, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, peaked in May at 7.1% - later and a little higher than in the US and some other high-income economies. If it now follows the headline rate on a downward path, the difference could be easily attributed to the implementation of Brexit and the idiosyncrasies of British energy pricing.

In that case, there would be nothing surprising in a smaller economy than the eurozone or the US suffering a bit more from a common shock, and its inflation path being a bit harder to predict. Core inflation, however, is not yet trending down.